The Rise and Fall and Rise Again of John McCain

On Feb. 2, he popped up like a groundhog. The man was Page 1 news in every city in America. He was shown winning and grinning on every TV. His name was suddenly on the lips of men and women who had seldom spoken it before, some of whom probably mispronounced it: “McClain.”

A day earlier, John McCain had defeated George W. Bush in the New Hampshire presidential primary. Not only did McCain get the win--a big W over the big W--he had won in a landslide. He was a dark horse in a runaway.

“Hail to the Chief” began to be played by pep bands at his rallies. This was not Sen. McCain’s idea, but it was hardly insulting. It was tribute by trombone. McCain was on his way. Bush had the money in his pocket, but McCain had the people. Or at least he had the people of New Hampshire--population 1,185,048.

John McCain won a primary in the 42nd largest state in the union, and the rest of America went gaga over him.

McCainmania was in the air. We began to learn more about him, more about Cindy McCain, our possible First-Lady-to-be. (She is the daughter of a beer distributor and has a license plate that reads MS BUD.)

A man was in transition from hero to household name. Sunday-morning armchair TV analysts addressed the McCain presidential possibilities, which now had to be taken seriously. “Saturday Night Live” comedians did likewise, in their typically tasteful way, kicking off a post-primary show with a skit depicting McCain in a New Hampshire coffee shop, having Vietnam flashbacks, picturing Al Gore, Bill Bradley and Bush as his captors.

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Good, bad or ugly, the publicity wheel had begun spinning McCain’s way. He was now a force, an Arizona snowball, picking up speed.

In a mere 24 hours, from the minute that New Hampshire’s polls closed, more than a half-million dollars were pledged to McCain’s campaign coffers via his Web site. South Carolina’s primary would be the next interesting test. Bush had been far ahead in the South Carolina polls for months, but overnight, he clearly could hear McCain’s footsteps.

“Washington double-talk,” the Texas governor accused McCain of, more than once, as if the senator spoke a language unfamiliar in Austin.

This was a brand new race, we were duly informed. No matter what would happen over the next week or two, particularly in South Carolina, the consultants and experts explained to us with assurance and logic that John McCain was in this race to stay. California’s primary in March could very likely be the one to “make or break” the McCain campaign, we were told (and told and told).

So what happened next?

Exactly three weeks later, McCain found himself in Michigan, hearing the vote there Tuesday could “make or break” his chances for the Republican nomination.

This same phrase was used during every major network’s national newscast Monday evening. And newspapers reported much the same. It was repeated again and again that, the outcome of Tuesday’s parallel primary in McCain’s home state of Arizona notwithstanding, Michigan could send the McCain campaign packing.

“If he loses here, he’s finished,” a political newsletter editor was quoted prominently, without hedging even a teensy bit.

Well, he is far from finished. On a day when many were poised to cross him off for good, McCain was an impressive winner in Michigan, the eighth-largest state, thanking the voters there “for standing by me.”

A majority from his own party in Michigan did not stand by him, but McCain’s popularity with Democrats and independents carried the day. “I love the Republican Party. It’s my home,” McCain stressed later, knowing how much help he still needs to win in California and elsewhere when Super Tuesday comes. But this man that Michigan could “make or break” was still very much in the race.

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New Hampshire spoke, and McCain was suddenly seen as a man with appeal not only to Republicans seeking an alternative to Bush, but to Democrats and independents not thrilled with Bradley or Gore.

South Carolina spoke, and McCain was seen as alienating Republicans by having too much appeal to Democrats and independents.

TV networks projected McCain the Michigan winner by a slim margin. If that same slim margin were in Bush’s favor, wouldn’t McCain’s campaign have been seen as a lost cause?

California’s primary is March 7. You’ll be able to vote for him, since he hasn’t been made or broken.

Mike Downey’s column appears Sundays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Write to him at Times Mirror Square, Los Angeles 90053. E-mail: mike.downey@latimes.com