Our Hopes for 2000

Welcome to a new year and a new century, a time of resolution and promise. Alas, the world brought along a lot of baggage from 1999, things like regional wars, terrorism, poverty and hunger, in addition to environmental destruction, racism and bigotry. Symbolically, at least, the new year gives us a clean slate with unlimited potential. With effort and goodwill, this can be a better world, nation, state and community by next Dec. 31.

Certainly it will be a year of big political change, marking the end of the Clinton administration. A president-elect will be preparing to take office on Jan. 20, 2001, full of optimism and presumably with the good wishes of Americans. With luck, the economy will remain strong and the 43rd chief executive will be able to continue to work for reduction of the federal debt and to assure the future of Social Security and Medicare.

Russia’s June elections are expected to end the erratic reign of President Boris N. Yeltsin. We hope his successor can deliver a measure of economic and political stability to that troubled nation. It’s essential that the incoming American and Russian presidents develop a good working relationship and continue to whittle away at the still-dangerous stockpiles of nuclear weapons.

There will be elections throughout California as well. But this is an “off” year for the state, with the major statewide offices filled through 2002. Democratic Gov. Gray Davis enters his second year with another healthy budget surplus and hefty Democratic majorities in the Assembly and Senate. Smoother relations between the chief executive and legislative leaders could lead to an even more productive session in 2000.

Change also is in the offing locally. Although all three Los Angeles County supervisors whose terms are expiring are unopposed for reelection, there are moves afoot to expand the size of the five-member board and to impose term limits. And while the Los Angeles mayoral election is more than a year off, a sprightly scramble has begun among seven prospective candidates to succeed Richard Riordan.

We may know when elections will be held, but no one can claim victory until the votes are counted. Likewise, there is no way to know the major events of the year ahead. Nature and humankind will surprise, stun and at times appall us. What we can do is urge our leaders to keep working for improvement. Here are a few suggestions:

World Affairs

What appears to be the best chance since 1949 for a peace agreement between Israel and neighboring Arab states could come in 2000, with some U.S. help. That wouldn’t eradicate all Arab and Muslim hostility toward Israel, but it would enormously lessen the chances of renewed conflict.

In Africa, the return of civilian rule to Nigeria is paying off with benefits for ordinary citizens. South Africa continues to attract international investment and slowly deliver on the promises of democracy. Although most African nations are democratic, conflict rages on in Ivory Coast, Sudan, Angola and Congo.

Japan is still digging out of the recession that hit in the early 1990s. Tokyo is trying to boost growth by pumping taxpayer money into the economy, but what is needed is less government, not more. Tokyo needs to stimulate restructuring of its fossilized industrial conglomerates.

China might finally join the World Trade Organization this year. Surely Beijing knows by now the requirements and potential payoffs.

The biggest political challenge for China is its relationship with Taiwan, but Taiwan is not a colony as Hong Kong or Macao was, and it will reunite only on its own terms.

Latin America has gone through two important transformations--from military regimes to elected leadership and from closed economic systems to free markets. The question now is how the Latin countries can play the global economics game to maximize opportunity and minimize risk. Problems like poverty, inequality and corruption continue to plague the hemisphere, and Cuba continues to be a quandary for the United States. The question is whether easing or tightening the long-standing embargo can help ensure a peaceful transition to democracy when Fidel Castro is no longer on the scene.

The Economy

Hubris may be the biggest danger to the booming U.S. economy. While indications are that the economy will continue to grow, imbalances are beginning to set in. Productivity growth has saved the economy from the inflation that low unemployment produces. But few economists will predict how long that will last. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan may well counter the inflationary pressure with higher interest rates, putting a brake on the economy and its expectations of ever-higher returns. Pessimists have been consistently wrong in predicting a downturn, but there are more and more of them. President Clinton faces one important economic decision this year: whether to appoint Greenspan for another term. He should, and the sooner the better.

California

Many of the issues that greeted a new governor and the Legislature a year ago will be on the agenda again as lawmakers return Monday for the final year of their 1999-2000 session. With a year under its belt, the administration of Gov. Gray Davis should be more adept at working with its Democratic allies, who control both the Assembly and Senate, and should fill remaining vacant administration jobs. Education remains the top issue. Pressure is on to raise achievement and test scores. A new state accountability system will expect more from students, and superintendents need to focus on teaching reading, writing and math.

Other issues before lawmakers will include health care reform, welfare and the prison and parole systems. We hope that the governor broadens his vision beyond immediate problems and positions that test well with voters in opinion polls. The state needs some dramatic new thinking in dealing with longer-range problems such as mental health care, a declining state infrastructure, the mess of local government finance and water development.

The Region

Orange County supervisors appear on track to approve a new international airport in May by a 3-2 majority. There is a new environmental impact report containing some candor about cost and noise, but for too long the public has not had a clear idea what it is going to get when and if the airport ever is built. The supervisors need to level with the public on how El Toro would operate and make a better case as to why it is essential.

The brutally candid analysis left behind by David L. Baker when he fled after just four days as Ventura County’s chief administrative officer appears to have gotten the Board of Supervisors’ attention. We hope it will act boldly to correct the inefficiencies and bad habits that have hampered county government for years. We also hope the county’s mental health bureaucracy will be able to put the political and financial chaos of the past year behind it and place its focus back where it belongs: on the people who desperately need its services.

Just six months remain before the new Los Angeles City Charter takes effect. With officials hard at work to meet the July 1 effective date, we recognize that the new charter’s deliberate flexibility means there will be rough spots in interpretation and implementation. We wish for good-faith efforts by the city officials charged with implementing the new rules and patience on the part of local residents who supported the new charter in order to make Los Angeles work more efficiently and bring diverse and far-flung neighborhoods together.

Burbank officials and the Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena Airport Authority have a draft agreement to finally replace the airport’s aging terminal. But the Burbank City Council has yet to vote on the plan. There are heavy criticisms and threatened lawsuits over airport noise. Enough lawsuits already. The draft puts the terminal in a safe location, phases out noisier older jets and imposes a de facto curfew. Future expansion is tied to further noise reductions. It’s a good plan and deserves approval.

The Los Angeles Unified School District faces unique challenges, chief among them finding a replacement for Supt. Ruben Zacarias, who departs Jan. 15. The school board also must determine the fate of the stalled Belmont Learning Complex. Preventing future Belmonts will require widespread district reform.

And here’s hoping that planners, communities and government officials make a serious effort to fight a key cause of traffic congestion: sprawl. It’s sprawl that creates housing that is far removed from jobs, schools, shopping areas and the like. What’s better? Sensibly planned communities where jobs and housing are close, where essential trips can be measured in terms of a few blocks instead of miles and where people are able to leave their cars at home in some instances. The dream of maintaining the California lifestyle is still possible if we work at it.