Handful of Seats Could Sway Battle Over House

Five years after Republicans brashly stormed Washington and took command of Congress, a humbled GOP enters this election year at risk of losing control of the House--a prized bastion of legislative power that could help or hobble whoever becomes president.

Although national political debate has been dominated by the voices of presidential candidates, Republicans around the country have quietly armed for an equally intense fight to preserve their wafer-thin majority in the House in the 2000 vote.

“Of course I’m nervous,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-Va.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “I think we ought to hold [the House], but you know, funny things happen along the way.”

The outcome is as uncertain as a coin toss, and the stakes are huge. The party that controls the House has a powerful hand in charting the course of federal policy for the next two years, grappling with such overarching issues as how best to use the burgeoning federal surplus, how to reform Social Security for retiring baby boomers and how U.S. trade policy should evolve in the global economy.

But what makes the 2000 House election unique--and has turned it into a fur-flying dogfight--is that the battlefield for this grand engagement is extraordinarily small. Most incumbents are safely entrenched and face little or no serious opposition.

Strategists from both parties say that as few as two dozen of the 435 House seats--including a handful in California--will be the only ones seriously contested.

But on that postage stamp of political real estate the shape of the entire House will be determined.

“A lot of money will flow to a relative handful of seats,” said Burdett Loomis, a political scientist at the University of Kansas. “In those seats, it’s nuclear war. Twenty miles away, there’s nothing.”

Both parties are arming to the teeth. Donations are pouring in like iron filings to a magnet. Party leaders have been pleading with potentially strong candidates to run and for veterans to stay. GOP leaders, for instance, begged Rep. John Edward Porter (R-Ill.) to change his mind after he announced his retirement (he declined). House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) called a potential candidate in California from the U.S. ambassador’s residence in Zimbabwe, persuading the prospect to run for the House the day before the state’s filing deadline.

The GOP is expected to enjoy its traditional advantage in fund-raising. The party also hopes that the lead in the polls currently enjoyed by its likely presidential nominee, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, means that the political winds will be at their backs. And, given the small number of competitive districts, Republicans argue that it will be harder than it looks for Democrats to gain the five seats they need to take back the House.

“Picking up the last five seats is like picking up yardage inside the 10-yard line,” said NRCC Chairman Davis.

But a daunting array of handicaps makes the Republican grip on power especially tenuous. Its House majority is the slimmest either party has had since 1954. Meanwhile, Democrats are cutting into the GOP’s financial edge with a record-smashing fund-raising effort. Finally, more than three times as many GOP House members are either retiring or giving up their seats for higher office than is the case with Democrats.

Even die-hard Republican partisans acknowledge that this disparity is a major problem because it is usually much harder for parties to hold on to an open seat than to reelect an incumbent.

“That’s a terrific advantage for Gephardt,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). “I believe that [the Republican presidential nominee] is going to have to win by a pretty decisive margin to keep the House Republican.”

Republicans also will be battling to retain control of the Senate, but their cushion in that chamber--55 seats compared with the Democrats’ 45--is considered much more secure. The breakdown in the House is 222 Republicans, 212 Democrats and one Independent--Rep. Bernard Sanders of Vermont--who would be expected to support the Democrats as majority party.

Thus, picking up five seats this November would achieve for the party the magic number--218--it needs to gain back the power it wielded for most of the 20th century and lost in the 1994 elections.

Republican control of Congress brought Gingrich to power, the budget into balance and conservative social issues such as abortion limits and school vouchers into focus. Also, with the GOP in charge, the drive to impeach President Clinton passed the House and proceeded to trial in the Senate early last year.

The 2000 House elections will be fought, in part, as a referendum on the Republican policy agenda and the GOP’s treatment of Clinton.

But the outcome on election day will be influenced as well by the quirky local dynamics shaping the relatively few House races where the outcome is in doubt. Charles E. Cook Jr., an independent political analyst who tracks congressional elections, identifies only 54 truly competitive House races. Of these, he rates 18 as real tossups, while giving one party or the other a slight advantage in the remaining 36.

Huge amounts of money and attention from the national parties will be showered on those races, especially the 18 tossups. Of those seats, 12 are now held by Republicans and six by Democrats. Most are in suburban districts, including New York’s Long Island, the Main Line outside Philadelphia and the outskirts of Chicago.

Three of the tossups are in California: the reelection bids of Reps. James E. Rogan (R-Glendale) and Steve Kuykendall (R-Rancho Palos Verdes) and the seat vacated by Rep. Tom Campbell of San Jose, who is seeking the Republican Senate nomination to challenge Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein.

These California contests illustrate three of the forces that Democrats hope will propel them into the majority.

* In suburban districts such as Rogan’s, which stretches from Burbank into Pasadena and includes La Canada Flintridge and La Crescenta, Democrats hope to link their Republican opponents with the hard-charging conservative image associated with Gingrich and the party’s drive to impeach Clinton--often a liability among swing voters who tend to be more moderate. The GOP has tried to soften its edges over the last year, but Rogan’s high-profile role in the impeachment trial is sure to be a central issue in this race.

* In swing districts such as Kuykendall’s in the South Bay, Democrats hope that their candidate recruitment drive will pay off. Kuykendall looked to be in pretty good shape for reelection until Democrats persuaded Jane Harman at the last minute to run for the seat she gave up in 1998 for an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid.

* The race for Campbell’s open seat in the Silicon Valley typifies one of the biggest problems facing Republicans: Their many retirements mean that they are having to fight to hold on to a number of seats that would have been safe if the incumbent had stayed put.

Republican departures reflect, in part, the success of one of their hallmark conservative reforms--term limits. Six GOP House members are retiring because during their 1994 campaigns they promised to leave Congress after six years.

Democratic leaders held departures by their incumbents to a low level by pleading with members to stay put in the House. Along with appealing to party loyalty, Gephardt promised choice committee assignments and other perks to help dissuade some members tempted by prospective Senate races.

Democrats have also turned up the heat on donors to give to the House campaign effort. Preliminary figures on fund-raising in 1999 showed that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ended the year with $19 million on hand--even more than the Republicans were expected to report.

“Donors around the country and here in Washington think we’re on the precipice of winning back the majority,” said David Plouffe, executive director of the Democratic campaign group. “We’re seeing unprecedented levels of [financial] involvement from people who never participated in House races.”

The unfolding presidential campaign looms as the wild card in the fight for the House. If Democrats lose the White House race by a substantial margin, a House majority would be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve. As a result, House Democrats--most of whom have endorsed Vice President Al Gore over Democratic rival Bill Bradley--have watched Gore’s rocky, often-lackluster campaign with anxiety and concern.

But party strategists brush off suggestions that House Democrats see their fate inextricably bound with the top of the ticket.

“They’ve gone through tough races,” said Karin Johanson, the political director of the Democratic committee. “They are self-sufficient. I don’t think they see themselves as tied to the success of the presidential nominee.”

Times staff writer Nick Anderson contributed to this story.

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Pivotal California Seats

For one of the few times in U.S. history, every race counts in this November’s battle to control the House of Representatives. Here are the hot contests in California.

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REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS

15th District (San Jose): Rep. Tom Campbell is leaving the House to seek his party’s Senate nomination. The open seat will be one of the toughest in the country for Republicans to hold.

27th District (Glendale): Rep. James E. Rogan, targeted by Democrats for leading role in impeaching President Clinton, is one of the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents.

36th District (Rancho Palos Verdes): Rep. Steven T. Kuykendall wrested this competitive seat from the Democrats in 1998. But the favored Democratic nominee, Jane Harman, held it for three terms before giving it up two years ago in an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid.

49th District (San Diego): GOP Rep. Brian P. Bilbray, a perennial target, should face a stiff challenge from Democratic Assemblywoman Susan Davis.

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DEMOCRAT-HELD SEATS

10th District (Pleasanton): Republicans are targeting Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher in this closely divided district, but her moderate record and connections with the business community give her an edge.

22nd District (Santa Barbara): This much fought-over district is now held by Democrat Lois Capps, whose leading Republican challenger is more moderate than the conservative she beat in 1998.