Right’s Power Fading but Not Gone

It’s January in Iowa, where life is precious and so are votes.

Presidential hopeful Gary Bauer holds a memorial service at a Des Moines cemetery for “the 1 1/2 million babies that don’t get a name.” Steve Forbes stumps with anti-abortion stalwart Phyllis Schlafly, singing the praises of an anti-abortion Supreme Court.

George W. Bush makes great television, talking redemption through Jesus at a Christian center for substance abusers: I used to drink too much and I quit drinking and I believe it was because Billy Graham planted a seed in my heart one time. It wasn’t Billy--he was the messenger.

Bush Crafting a Moderate Coalition

Watching Bush pick his way through the primary season is an object lesson in new Republican politics. As his scrappy opponents crisscross Iowa making anti-abortion pledges, the front-runner is trying to woo social conservatives without ever having to say the “A” word.

The Texas governor has been busy crafting a moderate coalition, which he hopes will bring him victory in the general election. But November is 10 months away, the Republican nomination is yet to be won and he still must court conservatives, whose power is diminishing but is far from gone.

“The strength of the social conservatives has been diffused somewhat,” said Hugh Winebrenner, a political scientist at Drake University here. “They’re now split among at least four candidates. Their influence is on the wane, but everyone still genuflects to them.”

In the week leading up to Monday’s caucuses, the issue in Iowa has been abortion, the heart of the social conservative agenda and perhaps the best lens through which to view the candidates and their audience.

In this mixed campaign for America’s right wing, every Republican running for president professes to hew closely to the anti-abortion line--which is both a blessing and a curse.

Barring divine intervention, the most conservative presidential candidates probably are not electable, analysts say, in part because far-right voters have not rallied behind a single man, in part because of the Bush juggernaut.

But there candidates remain on the campaign trail, visiting centers that counsel pregnant women to avoid abortion. They are blasting Bush at every opportunity for the sin of being, as Forbes described it, a “pro-life pacifist.”

They are threading every debate with anti-abortion ardor and reaching out to voters here who believe deeply that life starts at conception. They are struggling to define the debate, pushing Bush to articulate views he holds dear but speaks of only rarely.

They are excoriating the front-runner, as Forbes did in Cedar Rapids on Thursday: “I have taken the pledge in selecting a pro-life running mate. He has not chosen to do so. I’ve pledged to appoint only pro-life judges. He has not done so. I think this underscores that it’s not enough just to say one is pro-life.”

As much as Bush strives to avoid the issue, others embrace it, as Bauer did Saturday from a snowy cemetery on the anniversary of Roe vs. Wade, the Supreme Court decision legalizing abortion. At a ceremony billed as a memorial to “an aborted baby thrown into a sewer drain,” Bauer clarified that “Baby Isaiah” actually was a stillborn infant found by a Des Moines waste-water treatment worker in August 1994.

“But he represents, I think, the coarsening of our culture, the fact that increasingly we treat our own flesh and blood as if they were Styrofoam cups,” Bauer said. “If, by the grace of God, I end up in the White House and can’t stop abortion on demand, my presidency will be a failure, no matter what else I do.”

Bush has spent the last week burnishing his conservative credentials in far less dramatic fashion, praising religious charities that minister to the down-and-out, talking about parenthood as his most important job.

He also addressed the Roe vs. Wade decision, saying, “It overstepped the constitutional bounds, as far as I’m concerned.”

Until this last week, he hadn’t voluntarily addressed abortion since Jan. 5 in Cedar Rapids, in what could be best described as Christian Day on the Bush campaign trail: all protestations of faith and children singing “Jesus Loves Me,” all praying pastors and blessings at breakfast with the just-formed Iowa Families for Bush.

And perhaps the strongest voluntary language yet to crest this moderate’s mouth on an issue still dogging American politics: “We ought to have the goal [that] every single child--born or unborn--should be protected in law and welcomed into life. We ought to have a culture that respects life in America--not only the life of the unborn and the life of the soon-to-be-born--but the life of the elderly and the life of the people living in tough situations. Life is valuable.”

Far Right’s Strength Has Limitations

That Bush would say such a thing is evidence that the social conservative movement still has some clout, at least here. That he doesn’t say it more often is proof that the far right’s strength has limitations and little utility for a candidate looking to November.

One rap against Bush--particularly in recent weeks of all-taxes-all-the-time campaigning--is not that he isn’t an anti-abortion believer but that he doesn’t talk more about the issues that touch conservatives’ hearts.

In fact, even addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference via satellite Saturday, a natural audience for an anti-abortion paean, Bush only briefly alluded to abortion. “We believe in opportunity for all Americans,” he said. “Rich and poor, black and white, young and old, born and unborn.”

Some voters wish he would say more. In Ottumwa late Thursday evening, Lori Spurgeon, 25, and a mother of three, had just finished listening to Bush talk up his $483-billion tax cut. Spurgeon said she liked what she heard. Then she was asked what issue was nearest to her young heart.

“He didn’t bring it up, but abortion,” she said, trying to keep her 3-year-old in line while her oldest, age 7, looked on. “He’s not addressed it at all. [Bush] should address it, especially fathers’ rights.”

Ione Dilley, chairwoman of the Iowa Christian Coalition and a Bush supporter, believes that her candidate “has deeply felt pro-family convictions. He doesn’t wear them on his sleeve.”

“If you have known him somewhat, you will hear his personal testimony,” she said. “It’s a story of hope and healing that comes from Jesus Christ. I’ve heard him declare his convictions several times. I’ve also heard the others very strongly--[former ambassador Alan] Keyes and Gary Bauer. It comes down to which one do you really believe will follow through.”

That personal testimony was in high relief Friday, as Bush campaigned at Teen Challenge in Colfax, which uses the teachings of Jesus Christ to help young men battle substance abuse.

At a round-table discussion beneath a mural of a benevolent Christ with outstretched arms, Bush heard young men’s tales of anguish and redemption: I was strung out on drugs. I was really broken. The Lord has made a difference in my life.

Then Bush spoke:

“I understand, I do,” he said, with a sweetness rare in presidential politics. “I used to drink too much and I quit drinking. . . . So I want you to know that your life’s walk is shared by a lot of other people, even some who wear suits.”

As much as Bush enjoyed talking about redemption, abortion was another story. While touring the facility, he gave a brusque answer when quizzed about whether Roe vs. Wade should be overturned. “It should be up to each legislature,” he told reporters.

Bush Still Leads the GOP Pack

While the GOP debate has shifted from taxes to abortion--from Bush’s favorite theme to the song of his underdogs--a check of the polls is enough to show how little good the change has done for Forbes, Keyes and Bauer.

Last week’s Los Angeles Times Poll placed abortion among the top three concerns of Iowa Republicans. But the moderate Bush still leads the pack by a large margin, supported by 43% of those surveyed, followed by Forbes at 25% and Keyes at 9%.

Social conservatives aren’t having more effect, analysts say, in part because they have too many candidates to choose from but not the right one.

“They don’t really have a viable candidate to go with,” says Robert Loevy, professor of political science at Colorado College in Colorado Springs. “George Bush, with his compassionate conservatism, has occupied the conservative ground with his money-raising ability. . . . He’s left the right wing with nowhere to go.”

As a result, social conservatives hunt for a candidate to trust with safeguarding their roster of family values. The California Republican Assn. has endorsed conservative activist Bauer. One chunk of the conservative A-list has thrown its support behind the wealthy Forbes; another wing has aligned itself with Bush.

Schlafly, who campaigned with Forbes recently at a Catholic high school in Marshalltown, fears that such divisions--and any subsequent spats among the candidates--could weaken the Republican Party in November.

“We have to have a candidate who comes out with clear leadership in the way that Ronald Reagan did,” she said. “That’s what most of the conservatives are looking for. They’re looking for somebody who sounds like Ronald Reagan. And they don’t see it yet.”

America’s social conservatives first began to flex their political muscle in Iowa in 1988, when they unified behind evangelical Christian leader Pat Robertson. Bob Dole, often referred to as Iowa’s third senator, barely won the caucuses that year. Robertson’s surprisingly strong second-place finish was the real story.

“But by 1996, [social conservatives] had already split among several candidates. Now they are even more split,” said Winebrenner. “Every political group, as it matures, its impact is lessened.”

Today, the members of the Republican right--worried about abortion, wanting to matter--”are thinking about winnability and whether they can get half a loaf,” he said. Half a loaf is the Texas governor, who “is pro-life but not willing to go as far as Bauer.”

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Times staff writer T. Christian Miller contributed to this story.