At Last, the Real Start

The 2000 run for the White House begins for real today as 150,000 or so Iowans trudge through the snow to attend precinct caucuses and register their support for Democratic and Republican candidates. The race for the presidential nominations started earlier than ever and could--don’t blink--be over by the time California ballots are counted March 7.

Of course the winners in Iowa, and in New Hampshire’s primary on Feb. 1, will not necessarily become the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees. But these states can wield enormous influence on the selection process. It’s a role Iowa and New Hampshire cherish and are loath to surrender as pressure mounts for the parties to adopt a system of regional primaries a month apart.

Reformers argue that these early tests receive an inordinate amount of candidate and media attention and skew the process. The Iowa caucuses tend to be dominated by party activists, not average voters. And there is an overemphasis on tax issues in New Hampshire, where the motto ought to be “No taxation, with or without representation.” No wonder Republicans George W. Bush and John McCain have spent so much time touting their tax cut plans to Granite Staters.

It’s reasonable for a Californian to ask why Iowa and New Hampshire should have such an impact while the influence of the nation’s most populous state could count for nothing. The answer can be found in timing. The national parties have been unable to force Iowa and New Hampshire to give up their kickoff status.

But the political doings in the two states serve valid purposes. Iowa tests a campaign’s ability to mobilize a field operation that gets supporters out to the 2,142 precinct caucuses beginning at 7 p.m. Iowa time today. New Hampshire voters demand that candidates handle face-to-face meetings. Consider the New Hampshire voter who couldn’t make up his mind because the candidates had been to his house only twice.

The events in Iowa and New Hampshire also become games of expectations. Maybe Vice President Al Gore comes in first in Iowa on the Democratic side, as expected. But was his margin over former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey impressive or less than expected? If Steve Forbes comes in second to Texas Gov. Bush in Iowa, his candidacy is alive for another week. That is possible because Arizona Sen. John McCain has not campaigned actively in Iowa. If Forbes should slip to third, his campaign is finished. One service that Iowa and New Hampshire perform for the rest of us is to cull the also-rans from the field.

Regardless of tonight’s outcome, Gore and Bush face severe tests in New Hampshire. In a Times poll published Sunday, Bush and McCain were in a dead heat, each with 36% of the probable voters in the New Hampshire primary. Gore, with 50%, held a nine-point lead over his Democratic rival, Bradley.

Now that the primary schedule has been compressed into an early eight-week period, it’s harder than ever for a second-tier candidate to parlay a good showing in Iowa or New Hampshire into an effective national campaign. California, New York, Ohio and a dozen other states will vote on March 7--the earliest ever for California.

The thing about electoral politics is that, despite the improving science of polling, no one can declare victory until after the votes are cast. That point at last is here.