Gore, Bush Open With Wins

Both Al Gore and George W. Bush built broad electoral coalitions in Iowa, demonstrating a breadth of appeal across their parties that could make them difficult to derail in other states down the road.

Of the two, Vice President Gore’s win was by far the most commanding: He routed former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey among core Democratic constituencies, such as union members, according to a Los Angeles Times/Voter News Service poll of voters entering the caucuses. Bradley was pushed back to a few beachheads among more affluent voters, a base too narrow from which to seriously challenge Gore in most states.

Gore even exceeded Jimmy Carter’s record-setting 59% total against Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) in 1980.

In a more crowded field, Bush also showed a wide-ranging appeal, carrying a plurality of voters who termed themselves moderate, conservative and even very conservative, the entrance poll found. Bush surpassed the previous record total in a crowded field: Bob Dole’s 37% in 1988, and was well above Dole’s meager 26% showing here in 1996.

Yet, as in earlier tests, Bush failed to overwhelm the field, a showing that kept hope alive for his rivals. In particular, the Iowa results could provide a breath of life for Steve Forbes, who finished slightly better than expected.

Forbes has faced enormous resistance from Republican voters in New Hampshire still smarting over his televised attacks on Dole four years ago. His solid second-place finish here could give him a new window of opportunity in next Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.

“I think it shows that . . . real conservative principles still dominate the Republican Party,” Forbes said in an interview Monday night. “I am the conservative candidate, and I much look forward to going against the two moderates in New Hampshire.”

The Los Angeles Times/VNS entrance poll interviewed 1,011 Democratic voters and 1,621 Republican voters as they entered their caucuses Monday night. In both parties, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. VNS is a consortium of ABC, CBS and NBC News; CNN; Fox News; and the Associated Press.

Big Loss Raises Stakes for Bradley in N.H.

Gore’s overwhelming showing raises the stakes for Bradley in New Hampshire. After leading Gore in polls there through most of the fall, Bradley has fallen behind by as much as a dozen percentage points in surveys conducted over the last week. Another defeat in New Hampshire, a state whose upscale and independent electorate is tailor-made for Bradley’s reformist message and anti-politician persona, could prove devastating to the former senator’s chances of overcoming Gore’s lead in the other states down the road.

“Bradley’s only chance after New Hampshire is if he can take New Hampshire,” said R. Kelly Myers, who conducts polls in New Hampshire for the Boston Herald.

New Hampshire is more congenial terrain for Bradley than Iowa because unions matter less and independent voters matter more. One risk to Bradley is that his weak showing in Iowa will encourage some New Hampshire independents now backing him to shift toward Republican John McCain, who’s also running on a reformist message.

But the Iowa results underscore an even greater threat to Bradley: his difficulty in attracting the core Democrats who comprise the heart of the primary electorate across the country.

Gore won fully two-thirds of Democrats here, nearly 70% of union members and two-thirds of the Democratic voters who gave Clinton positive marks for his job performance, the entrance poll found. He beat Bradley by more than 2 to 1 among voters earning $30,000 a year or less and more than 3 to 1 among those earning $30,000 to $50,000. Gore won about three-fourths of senior citizens. (There was no gender gap: Gore’s lead among men was as large as among women.)

As in New Hampshire polls, Bradley ran best among more upscale voters and less partisan voters. He actually beat Gore about 10 percentage points among Democratic caucus-goers who earn more than $75,000 a year and ran slightly ahead among independents. But each of those groups comprised only about one-sixth of the Democratic vote here.

Bradley also displayed slightly more appeal to younger voters than middle-age voters.

Gore appeared to win the core issue debates with Bradley here. Voters who cited Social Security and Medicare as the principal issue in their vote overwhelmingly preferred the vice president over his challenger. Gore also enjoyed a strong margin among voters who cited health care, the central issue the two have debated for the last three months. Despite Bush’s victory, the Iowa results cast some potentially ominous shadows over New Hampshire for the Texas governor. McCain, who didn’t compete here, leads Bush in most of the recent surveys in the Granite State. McCain, an Arizona senator, has opened a substantial lead among independents and moderate Republicans; Bush is depending upon the votes of conservatives to remain close.

But the Iowa results could well give new life in New Hampshire to conservatives Forbes and Alan Keyes, who have both lagged there. In Iowa, Keyes drew almost all of his support from conservatives, the entrance poll found. Forbes showed a balanced appeal in Iowa, actually running slightly better among moderates than conservatives here (possibly because Keyes drew so many conservatives).

Forbes, Keyes Factor in Equation

That makes both men potential wild cards in New Hampshire. If Keyes rises on the right, he could peel away at least some conservative votes now bolstering Bush. If Forbes rises, the question of whether he pulls more moderate votes from McCain or more conservative votes from Bush could prove critical to the outcome of next Tuesday’s primary. (So far, Forbes’ appeal in New Hampshire has been tilted much more to the right than in Iowa.)

The best news for Bush in Iowa was the breadth of his vote, according to the entrance poll. He won among both men and women by about 10 percentage points and carried voters in every age group. Bush ran best among older voters and those earning either less than $30,000 or more than $75,000; Forbes ran even with Bush among middle-income voters earning between $30,000 and $50,000, and only slightly behind in the next group up the ladder.

Partisan Republicans, who cast about 85% of the caucus votes, gave Bush a 15-point advantage over Forbes. One worrisome note for Bush was that independents favored Forbes by about 10 percentage points. That wasn’t a fatal problem here because independents constituted only about one-seventh of the vote; but in New Hampshire, they comprise one-quarter to one-third of the GOP electorate, and Bush has been lagging among those voters there as well.

After a campaign here that saw Forbes and others question Bush’s commitment to the anti-abortion cause, religious conservatives created some problems for the Texas governor in Iowa. Voters who describe themselves as members of “the religious right” comprised 37% of the vote Monday night, according to the entrance poll. And they gave Bush just one-third of their votes, with Forbes drawing just more than one-fourth, Keyes just under one-fourth and Gary Bauer about one-sixth.

Still, it’s not clear whether the resistance that Bush faced among Iowa religious conservatives will be a long-term, or localized, problem. For one thing, even with the intense courting from Keyes, Forbes and Bauer, it’s important to remember that Bush actually drew more votes from religious conservatives than any of them. Given his strength elsewhere in the party, Bush doesn’t need to dominate religious conservatives to win: Remaining competitive is enough.

Also, social conservatives are a much more minor factor in New Hampshire, about half of whose Republican primary voters support legalized abortion. In South Carolina, which holds its primary Feb. 19, those voters are an important bloc, but Forbes hasn’t made anywhere near the inroads with them that he did through years of painstaking courting in Iowa.

“Bush tonight showed that he can appeal to both social conservatives and economic conservatives,” Scott Reed, Dole’s campaign manager in 1996, said Monday. “That’s a winning combination for the nomination right out.”