Gore, Bush Open With Wins

Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush swept to victory Monday night in the Iowa presidential caucuses, solidifying their positions as the strong favorites to face each other in November.

Vice President Gore had by far the easier time of it, besting his sole rival, former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey, by 63.4% to 34.9%--a result that propelled Gore to a powerful send-off in the Democratic race.

Addressing a pumped-up crowd at the Iowa State Fairgrounds, Gore repeatedly declared: “We’ve just begun to fight.”

Bradley, with a rueful laugh, told his supporters at a downtown Des Moines hotel, “Tonight I have a little more humility but no less confidence that I can win and do the job.”

Texas Gov. Bush finished atop the six-man GOP field with 41% to 30.5% for second-place Steve Forbes, who did better than expected. Bush said he was pleased with the outcome, but the strong showing of rivals drawing from the party’s religious conservatives suggested some potential problems as he tries to rally Republicans around his candidacy.

Rounding out the GOP field were Alan Keyes, the Reagan administration diplomat, with 14.3%; social activist Gary Bauer, with 8.5%; Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who chose not to campaign here, with 4.7%; and Sen. Orrin G. Hatch of Utah with 1%.

Hatch, a 23-year Senate veteran, could be one of the first caucus casualties. He scheduled a news conference for today amid indications he plans to quit the race.

As quirky as they are--less than 10% of eligible Iowa voters participated--the precinct caucuses offered the first meaningful test of candidate strength in a presidential campaign that has been waged--out of sight and out of mind for most Americans--for well over a year.

The balloting at neighborhood gatherings across the state marked both a beginning and an end: an end to the baseless spin and speculation that has filled the news void until now. And the beginning of a stepped-up campaign calendar that will slingshot the candidates through a series of coast-to-coast contests at unprecedented speed.

The most important effect may be felt over the next few days in New Hampshire, which holds the nation’s first primary a week from today. Iowa has been a notoriously spotty picker of presidents. But that didn’t stop the top finishers Monday night--and some trailing far behind--from claiming a victory of some fashion.

On the Republican side, Bush’s biggest worry was meeting the high expectations he faced as the runaway front-runner in every poll taken in Iowa and nationally. His 41% showing was better than the 37% record set in 1988 by Bob Dole against a multi-candidate field. But it was hardly a blowout like Gore’s strong finish.

“I am humbled and I am honored by your outpouring of support,” Bush said, drawing a roar from partisans packed into a downtown Des Moines hotel with a declaration that the night “marks the beginning of the end of the Clinton era.” “Seven months ago, I came to Iowa on a plane dubbed ‘Great Expectations,’ ” Bush went on. “Well tonight, Iowa has exceeded them.”

But Forbes and Keyes also found something to crow about. “This is a great night,” Forbes told supporters at his hotel headquarters in West Des Moines. “This is not a good night for the power brokers of Washington, D.C. Thanks to you, they’ve met their match and they’re going to get their comeuppance in the days and months ahead as we the people take back politics and restore it to its dignity.”

Keyes Finds Room for Optimism

In the north end of Iowa’s capital city, a joyous Keyes opened his remarks to supporters with a prayer. “Dear God,” Keyes said, “we thank you for the hearts that you have turned in the great state of Iowa.”

Then, to his supporters, he gibed the one-two finishers. “Every time I go anywhere, everybody says Bush has this money and Forbes has this money and so forth and so on,” said Keyes, whose candidacy surged on the strength of his riveting performances in several candidate debates. “You put it on a per-vote basis and you tell me who has made the most effective use of the dollars given them.”

With Iowa behind them, the candidates began focusing on New Hampshire.

Asked whether he thought he would get a bounce coming out of the caucuses, Bush was cautious--and deferential. “That remains to be seen. The people of New Hampshire are independent-minded voters.”

Indeed, while Bush enjoys a crushing lead over his rivals in national polls, surveys show the governor behind McCain in New Hampshire, where the senator has virtually camped out since New Year’s Day. Speaking Monday night at Jesse’s Steak House in Hanover, N.H., McCain pronounced himself “very pleased that 5% would come out in the cold and vote for us. That’s 5% more than I expected.”

Looking ahead to next week’s primary, McCain added, “The preliminaries are over, and now we can start the playoffs. I think it’s going to be a very competitive race.”

With McCain opting out of the caucuses to concentrate mostly on New Hampshire, Bush faced his biggest challenge in Iowa from Forbes, whose $3.2-million investment was far more than anyone else spent in the Hawkeye State. Forbes also spent nearly twice as many days here as Bush.

Running for president a second time, Forbes broadened his agenda beyond the one-note flat-tax theme of his 1996 campaign. He targeted the Christian conservatives he snubbed before, making opposition to abortion a central theme of his campaign--and throwing Bush on the defensive in the days before the caucuses.

In an interview Monday night, Forbes asserted his strong second-place showing would consolidate the conservative vote--currently split among Forbes, Bauer and Keyes--and pressure Bush to toughen his stance against abortion. “I think in the days and weeks ahead he’ll probably try to adopt more of my positions,” Forbes said. “But I think that voters are going to conclude that, rather than go in the wake, why not go with the leader?”

But New Hampshire is vastly different political terrain than Iowa. For starters, the Christian conservatives who make up as much as 40% of caucus-goers account for only about 10% of New Hampshire’s GOP electorate.

Indeed, predicting the effect of the caucuses on New Hampshire’s famously hard-to-figure voters can be as dicey as trying to forecast next month’s weather. Success here is no guarantor of a favorable welcome in New Hampshire; in fact, the last nonincumbent candidate to win both the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary was Jimmy Carter, in 1976.

One precedent stands: No candidate has ever won the White House without capturing at least one of the top three slots in Iowa.

That said, in the two-man Democratic race, the results were a clear setback for Bradley, who outspent Gore in Iowa and devoted more time campaigning here than the vice president. Bradley forces once even talked of an upset. By caucus night, however, after suffering the roughest patch of his candidacy, the challenger said he would be happy to escape Iowa with a third of the caucus vote, a bit of purposeful underestimation that was prophetic.

Bradley’s fortunes took a decided turn for the worse after he stumbled through a series of miscues, including attacks on Gore that backfired and a poor performance in an Iowa debate focusing on agriculture issues.

Compounding his troubles, Bradley was forced to spend the last few days explaining several episodes of heart palpitations. However, New Hampshire could prove a more hospitable place, given the large core of independent voters who have been attracted by Bradley’s reformist agenda and insurgent image.

Despite the disappointing showing, Bradley insisted that Iowa was only the start. “I’ll move on from Iowa and continue the battle,” he said, as backers whooped and hollered. “Tonight is not an ending; it’s a beginning.”

After he spoke, Bradley was mobbed by supporters who slapped him on the back and punched their fists in the air. “We won! We won!” the crowd chanted.

Across town, Gore--who set out for Manchester, N.H., even before the final votes were counted-- pledged, “At the crack of dawn, I’m going to hit the ground running.”

Grinning and dripping with sweat, the vice president wrapped bear hugs around his wife, Tipper, Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) and Iowa’s first lady, Christie Vilsack. Harkin and Vilsack were instrumental to his big win. Claiming credit for the prosperity of the last seven years under the Clinton-Gore administration, the vice president said the question now is, “Can we do even better? And the answer is yes.”

For Gore, the day’s only sour note came earlier when he was forced to fend off allegations he misrepresented his youthful experimentation with marijuana.

A Tennessee man, John Warnecke, told the online magazine Salon that Gore smoked marijuana regularly--even daily--as late as 1976. Responding at a campaign stop, Gore restated that he had smoked marijuana “but not to that extent.”

“This is something I dealt with a long time ago,” he said. “It’s old news.”

In 1987, when he first ran for president, Gore said he had used marijuana “once or twice in college, in the Army [in Vietnam] and once or twice in graduate school.” At that time, Gore said he had not smoked marijuana for “approximately 15 years”--placing his last use sometime around 1972.

Schedule Picks Up

After Iowa and New Hampshire, Gore and Bradley will turn their sights to the mega-competition on March 7, when California, New York, Ohio and eight other states vote on the biggest day of the primary season. Republicans will face a flurry of contests after New Hampshire, including Delaware on Feb. 8, South Carolina on Feb. 19, and Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 22 before heading into the March 7 madness.

Essentially, Iowa’s caucuses are a glorified popularity contest. Unlike a primary, the outcome won’t decide how the state apportions its delegates to the party nominating conventions; that will happen weeks later, at a series of 99 county-level conventions, which most people outside Iowa ignore. The twin crowns bestowed by the caucuses are momentum and media attention. The state will send a mere 47 delegates to the Democratic convention in Los Angeles (compared with California’s 367) and 25 to the GOP convention in Philadelphia (compared with California’s 162 delegates.)

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Iowa Caucus Results

Democrats

% of the vote

Gore 63.4

Bradley 34.9

Republicans

% of the vote

Bush 41.0

Forbes 30.5

Keyes 14.3

Bauer 8.5

McCain 4.7

Hatch 1.0

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Times staff writers Edwin Chen, Cathleen Decker, Matea Gold, Maria L. La Ganga, T. Christian Miller, Anne-Marie O’Connor, Massie Ritsch and Eric Slater, and special correspondents Anne Mason and Dianna Ormsby contributed to this story.

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INSIDE A CAUCUS

Rural living-room gathering attracts 24 Democrats who chew over candidates and snacks. A8