The Governor vs. the Senator in California

One candidate in California’s Republican presidential primary is a senator from Arizona. A free-tongued former military pilot, he runs as an outsider against the party’s establishment. His opponent is a big-state governor with a famous name and a bottomless bankroll.

In an upset, the senator wins. Though his margin is small, the state GOP’s winner-take-all system gives him complete control of its huge delegation to the national convention. Now he can start drafting his acceptance speech.

That’s what happened in 1964, when Barry Goldwater beat New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller. John McCain succeeded Goldwater in the Senate, and would love to repeat his predecessor’s feat by snatching California’s 162 delegates from George W. Bush. Can he do it?

At first glance, his prospects seem dim. California Republicans have a reputation for deep-dish conservatism, and Bush is running to McCain’s right, especially on taxes and campaign finance reform.

But take a second look: Bush may not have the edge on issues after all.

According to a 1999 Los Angeles Times poll, only 8% of California Republicans identify taxes as the greatest problem facing the state. Now that years of high growth and low inflation have turned “bracket creep” into a distant memory, the tax issue does not have the same power it had in the late 1970s.

Besides, few ordinary citizens could name any differences between Bush’s tax-cut plan and McCain’s.

In debates, Bush has attacked McCain’s legislation on campaign finance. The tactic has questionable value.

To the extent that the issue influences voters at all, it probably will help McCain, because many California Republicans support campaign funding restrictions. Proposition 208, a 1996 ballot measure to curb political contributions, won big even in the most-Republican counties.

That result was part of a bigger pattern. Alongside their conservatism, the state’s GOP voters have an anti-establishment streak, which is why they like term limits. By framing the primary as a choice between the insider and the outsider, McCain might have a chance.

Current state polls give Bush a wide lead, but until today, public attention has focused less on politics than on the Super Bowl. The numbers could shift as voters start to ponder their choice for president. And if McCain does enjoy a surge, Bush’s fund-raising advantage might not be enough to stop it. In this state, big spenders sometimes end as big losers; just ask Al Checchi.

OK, it’s time for a reality check. Fun as it is to challenge the conventional wisdom, any credible analysis must still rate Bush as the favorite. So what has to happen between now and the March 7 primary to bring these speculations into Earth orbit?

For one thing, Bush has to fall further behind in the “stature gap.”

Most people can easily see John McCain handling an international crisis in the White House situation room. It’s harder to form the same picture for Bush.

Though he’s managed to project more confidence and competence in recent weeks, a few new missteps could deepen the doubts about his qualifications.

At the same time, though, McCain has to avoid missteps of his own. The very quality that sets him apart from other candidates--a blunt, plain-spoken manner of speaking--also could give rise to disastrous gaffes. That’s one reason why Goldwater ended so badly in 1964.

Above all, McCain has to run at least even with Bush in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. Expectations for McCain are running high, so if he should fall short, he probably won’t even reach the California primary, much less win it.

Regardless of their presidential preferences, California Republicans would find that outcome deeply frustrating.

Not since 1964 has their primary really mattered in a Republican nomination contest.

In the intervening years, national Republicans have largely ignored the primary either because one candidate was a prohibitive favorite in the state, or it occurred too late to make a difference. By moving the date to March 7, state lawmakers hoped to make California relevant again. But it might not be, thanks to New Hampshire--a state with less than half the population of Orange County.