Stereotype of Tuned-Out State Takes a Hit

Is the return of the missing California voter suddenly imminent?

Conventional wisdom teaches that Californians are too busy sunning, skiing or sitting in traffic to care much about the commonweal. The low voter turnouts in recent years have done little to boost our reputation for civic involvement.

But now there’s some evidence to show that Californians are not as tuned out as we might think. In a study just released by a Harvard research group, the state ranked near the top in voter interest in the presidential election.

“This is good news,” said Thomas Patterson, a professor of government and the press at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.” I expected California to come in lower than it did.”

The absent California voter has been the subject of much hand-wringing in recent years. Though not finishing at the very top, California was a respectable 12th on the Voter Involvement Index.

The survey was based on 40,000 interviews conducted over the past eight months by the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy. Voter interest was measured by how people responded when asked whether they are following the presidential campaign, could recall a campaign news story and had recently thought or talked about the campaign.

Not surprisingly, in a poll stretching back eight months, it turns out that the level of voter interest closely paralleled the relative importance of a state’s primary or caucuses in the nominating process.

New Hampshire, the first primary state, where candidates campaign almost door to door, came out on top. Also scoring high in voter involvement was Iowa, whose caucuses play a vital role in winnowing down the early field of candidates.

California’s primary has also grown more important since the date was changed from June to Super Tuesday in March.

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Paul Maslin of Fairbank, Maslin and Maullin Associates in Oakland said the cliche about the AWOL California voter ignores the fact that there is more activism in this state today than in the past. The conventional wisdom that immigrants don’t vote is also being challenged. “The Latino community is much more inspired to vote these days,” he said.

Other findings showed that Arizona finished second in the index, which is likely a result of the fact that its Sen. John McCain was the primary opponent for George W. Bush for the Republican presidential nomination. New Jersey, however, ranked only 24th, despite the fact that its former Sen. Bill Bradley was Al Gore’s chief rival for the Democratic nomination. One explanation could be that New Jersey’s primary did not occur until June, long after the nomination was all but decided.

All very interesting. What these numbers mean is something else again. While the results appear to reflect well, or at least better than expected, on the knowledge and interest of the California voter, some political experts said the evidence they see points in the opposite direction.

“I’m surprised California is as high as it is,” said pollster Mervin Field. “All the things we see here point to a withdrawal from the process. It could be partly because of the fact that Bush and Gore have been campaigning out here a lot and getting a lot of press coverage.”

And just because California voters are more tuned in than most doesn’t mean much when most voters aren’t tuned in at all. The average state score on the Voter Involvement Index was 24, meaning that on average only one in four voters is on top of what’s going on in the election.

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“More than any time we can remember in the past, the voters really seem to be checked out,” agreed Sacramento political consultant Ray McNally. “Maybe we ranked 12th, but few voters anywhere are paying any attention.”

For instance, New Hampshire scored a 33.9, meaning one in three voters is following the campaign. California’s score was 27.4. Finishing last in the survey was Wyoming, with a 17.8 score, meaning one in six was interested and involved.

“That is about what I would expect,” said Field. He predicted that the ’92 Bush-Clinton election would have scored higher in terms of voter interest, as would the ’80 Reagan-Carter contest.

“People have been calling this election boring,” said Field. “What I say is, ‘it can’t be boring until people pay attention.’ ”

Beyond California’s relatively high ranking, there were several other surprises in the survey. Some of the lowest scoring states were Minnesota, which ranked 42nd, and North Dakota, which ranked 46th.

Both states are always among the leaders in terms of voter turnout, and Maslin predicted they will be again in November. “That’s the thing this doesn’t prove, that there is a connection between the poll and actual voting,” he said.

Maslin questioned the value of the survey, particularly since it embraces such a lengthy period of time. “It’s looking through the rearview mirror,” he said. “It’s interesting, but relatively unimportant.”

While many observers bemoan the lack of voter interest, McNally said it’s at last partly understandable, and maybe not as bad as we fear. “Is there that raging passion of the ‘80s? No. There’s no major wars. The economy is chugging along. Inflation is down. We’re all fat and happy.”

So instead of the California voter checking back in, maybe Harvard has just proved that everyone else has decided things are so good it’s time to go surfing.