Industry Experts Mull the Fate of Supersonic Air Travel

Aviation experts were sharply divided Tuesday over whether the first crash of a Concorde could spark the demise of the 30-year-old model--whose economic usefulness already was in question--and of supersonic passenger travel overall.

Barring massive safety concerns stemming from the Air France crash, some said, the remaining dozen Concordes in use were expected to fly for at least several more years because there would still be enough passengers willing to pay the pricey fares and thus cover the airplane’s sizable costs.

But others noted that the Paris crash came only one day after British Airways--the only other carrier to fly the supersonic aircraft with about 100 seats--announced the grounding of one of its Concordes after finding hairline cracks in its wings.

“These two events could be the beginning of the end of the supersonic era in air transportation” even though the Concorde otherwise has a sterling safety record, said Michael Boyd, president of the Boyd Group, an aviation consulting firm in Evergreen, Colo.

“This is an airplane that should never have been built and has been a financial disaster for everyone involved,” Boyd said. “It’s a loss-leader and a prestige issue” for the two airlines, he added.

The Concorde makes daily flights between New York and London--and to and from Paris--but its loud noise largely prohibits flights over land. The Concorde used to fly to Washington, but that service ended in the mid-1990s.

Round-trip fares for the transatlantic flights typically cost about $10,000, which is why the jets mostly fly well-heeled passengers such as entertainers and other celebrities, politicians and business executives.

Though they won’t divulge financial results for the jet, Air France and British Airways have said that the Concorde is profitable. But the crash, and any subsequent extended grounding of the remaining Concordes for inspections, could certainly dent both airlines’ incomes, experts said.

Any such impact, however, might be brief, said Rob Milmore, an analyst at the securities firm Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder in New York. “Whenever there’s a crash, there always tends to be near-term effect, where people don’t want to get on that aircraft or that airline,” he said. “But usually the consumer has a short-term memory.”

Others contended that Air France and British Airways would have long ago grounded the Concorde if the jet was merely promotional and a financial drain.

“They would not be flying the planes as a loss-leader over an extended period of time simply because of the prestige,” said one aviation source who asked not to be named. “Everything British Airways has said to me indicates they’re profitable.”

There have been times when the Concorde lost money, mainly during the U.S. and European recessions, analysts said. But with stronger economies today, passenger demand has been strong for the jets that fly at twice the speed of sound.

“British Airways is planning on refurbishing” its Concorde fleet, “so from an economic viewpoint, they felt that the market could support the Concorde,” said Ray Neidl, an analyst at the investment firm ING Barings in New York.

If the Concorde did fade away, supersonic passenger traffic would be lost for a long time. A year ago, Boeing Co. and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration stopped development on a new type of supersonic jetliner. A Boeing executive said then that it wasn’t clear that the company could generate enough sales for such an airplane.

Paul Nisbet, senior aerospace analyst with JSA Research Inc. in Newport, R.I., said he was unaware of any other supersonic plane under development.