The Aftermath of SOAR

During the last five years, Ventura County voters have overwhelmingly approved a series of anti-sprawl ballot measures that protect the farmland and open space that separate local cities. But these measures have also raised questions about whether the cities have enough land inside their growth boundaries to accommodate the 166,457 new residents, 54,586 new dwellings and numerous new businesses expected as Ventura County’s population grows by 22% over the next 20 years.

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Urban Boundaries / Spheres of Influence

Under the county Guidelines for Orderly Development created in 1969, urban development has been generally limited to cities. A countywide Save Open Space and Agricultural Resources ballot measure passed in 1998 strengthened those guidelines by prohibiting urban development outside cities’ boundaries without voter approval. Similar measures set urban boundaries in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Moorpark, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. Growth in the cities of Santa Paula, Fillmore and Ojai is constrained by so-called spheres of influence, which can be changed by a vote of a local planning agency. Port Hueneme is surrounded on all sides by Oxnard or the ocean and must grow inward.

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A Shortage of Vacant Land

Planning experts say new growth restrictions will force local cities to reexamine their growth plans through 2020. Most have a shortage of vacant land zoned for housing. Camarillo and Oxnard, for example, plan to use just a fraction of their vacant land for housing. Others have too little land zoned for commercial and industrial development to support new jobs for their residents.

To grow as projected, seven cities need to build more housing units per acre, rebuild run-down neighborhoods with more dwellings or rezone land now set aside for other uses--such as stores, industry, farms or open space. Some cities--such as Ventura--might also change rules to allow construction on hillsides with steep slopes. And other cities not subject to voter-imposed growth boundaries--Santa Paula and Fillmore--could choose to annex more land, as Santa Paula has proposed.

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Housing need, vacant land within city boundaries*

Projected number of new dwellings needed by 2020

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New Usable** Dwellings Acres Zoned Residential Needed Residential Units Per Acre Santa Paula 3,665 66 55.53 Camarillo 5,857 175 33.47 Ojai 2,016 87 23.17 Ventura 6,404 367 17.45 Port Hueneme 177 13 13.62 Oxnard 15,298 1,161 13.18 Simi Valley 11,146 1,673 6.66 Fillmore 2,557 541 4.73 Moorpark 3,372 1,508 2.24 Thousand Oaks 4,094 1,593 2.57 County Total 54,586 7,184 7.60

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*Acres within city growth boundaries established by General Plan or ballot measures.

**Construction on these acres is not constrained by geographic hazards such as steep slopes, flood plains or earthquake faults.

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Use of vacant land in cities

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Total Vacant* Usable** Usable** Acres Vacant Acres for Acres for for Housing/ Acres Development Development Business Thousand Oaks 16,225 2,225 2,218 72%/28% Simi Valley 14,547 3,458 2,777 60%/40% Moorpark 7,857 3,154 1,767 85%/15% Oxnard 5,646 3,810 3,810 30%/70% Ventura 5,352 4,231 607 60%/40% Camarillo 2,797 989 927 19%/81% Ojai 2,436 155 150 63%/37% Fillmore 1,646 1,413 749 72%/28% Santa Paula 553 542 107 62%/38% Port Hueneme 90 40 40 33%/67% Countywide 57,150 20,017 13,151

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*After subtracting agricultural and open space zones, this acreage remains for residential, commercial, industrial and governmental uses. But not all can be used.

**Construction on these acres is not constrained by geographic hazards such as steep slopes, flood plains or earthquake faults.

Source: Ventura Council of Governments; Researched by DARYL KELLEY/Los Angeles Times

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Projected Ventura County Population 2000-2020

In hundreds of thousands

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2000: 748,548

2020: 915,005

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