Despair, Relief Mingle in Lebanon

Rumors of Syrian President Hafez Assad’s demise were so prevalent in the last decade, the premature mourning--and celebrations--so commonplace, that when death finally came to the strongman, the Lebanese simply could not believe it.

Shock, fear and uncertainty hung over this humid seafront capital Sunday as Lebanese Muslims and Christians struggled with what the passing of Lebanon’s de facto ruler would mean for their country.

“The shock hasn’t worn off yet, even though the man was dying for 20 years,” said an independent Lebanese journalist. “It is like the boy who cried wolf. Nobody ever believed it would really happen.”

In the predominantly Shiite Muslim section of West Beirut, where there has been support for Syria’s “protection” of Lebanon, there were expressions of grief and loyalty as youths hung posters of Assad alongside others of his son and heir apparent, Bashar.

“All my soul is for Hafez and Bashar,” said Ahmed Sabbah, who bared his chest to display the bloody name “Assad,” which he had carved into his flesh with a knife.

Relief mixed with apprehension in predominantly Christian quarters of the capital, where opposition to Syrian domination is stronger.

“I don’t think Assad was very much in the heart of the Christian population. I don’t see many people in mourning,” said Dory Chamoun of the National Liberation Party. “Bashar Assad is younger, more traveled and more influenced by democracy, but one doesn’t really know so long as he is not in the seat and running things.”

Assad sent troops into Lebanon in 1990 in a bid to end the country’s 15-year civil war, first siding with the Christian minority that traditionally ruled the country and later shifting his allegiance to the Muslim majority. He has micro-managed the country’s politics and economy ever since and kept about 35,000 of his troops in Lebanon as a bulwark against Israel.

Assad also used Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrillas to fight a proxy war with Israel over the return of the Golan Heights, which the Israelis captured from Syria in 1967.

Resentment of Syrian dominance and of as many as 1 million Syrians holding jobs in Lebanon runs deep in many Lebanese, although few people are willing to criticize the Syrians publicly for fear of retribution.

“The truth is, I feel relieved,” said a Muslim businessman who asked not to be identified. “Assad was too heavy, from another era. Bless his heart and soul, but the age of Stalinism doesn’t go with the world culture anymore.”

If Lebanese were afraid to criticize Assad while he was alive, they are equally nervous now that he is dead and the regional political landscape is so unsettled.

The leading An Nahar newspaper, one of the few voices against the presence of Syrian troops in Lebanon, published a 13-page special section in honor of Assad under the headline “Assad Died Without Signing” (a peace agreement with Israel).

“We are with the man who died saying ‘no’ to Israel,” wrote the paper’s former manager, Ghassan Tueni. He placed Assad in the same league as French Gen. Charles de Gaulle and Napoleon for his political skills, adding only that Lebanon needs “democratic freedoms, and it is up to Lebanon and no one else to preserve them.”

Assad’s death follows the sudden Israeli pullout last month from southern Lebanon, which has left unresolved questions over the drawing of the Israeli-Lebanese border and the armed Islamist Hezbollah movement in control of the region abandoned by Israeli soldiers and their proxy militia, the South Lebanon Army.

The ascent of a political novice such as the 34-year-old Bashar Assad adds to the uneasiness. Few political observers expect immediate changes in the Syrian-Lebanese relationship as the younger Assad tries to consolidate power at home.

There is also no indication that he views Lebanon any differently from his father--as anything other than Syria’s backyard and rightful protectorate. Bashar has been in charge of Lebanese affairs for his father for the last few years and is believed to have handpicked Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, who claims to have been the last person to talk to Hafez Assad on the phone before the Syrian leader died.

Political observers say that the Western-educated Bashar Assad tried to dislodge the Syrian security chief in Lebanon, Gen. Ghazi Kanaan, but could not match his power and political skills. Kanaan remains the top Syrian in Lebanon, an indication that security and intelligence issues will continue to dominate the bilateral relationship.

No one expects Syrian troops in Lebanon to be drawn down any time soon and certainly not before there is a peace agreement with Israel. And no peace negotiations are expected before the younger Assad establishes himself as Syria’s undisputed leader.

Lebanon’s pro-Syrian leadership also is unlikely to sign a separate peace deal with Israel.

Few Beirut political observers expect Hezbollah to take any action against Israel right now, because the Israeli government has said it would strike back without restraint at both the militia and its sponsors. Assad or no Assad, Hezbollah still relies on Syria for its arms shipments and political and logistical support.

One of the concerns among Lebanese observers is that a power struggle and political instability within Syria could spill over into Lebanese politics, where there has never been a true reconciliation among the country’s religious sects. While renewed civil war is unlikely, there is fear that ultranationalist Christians might see an opportunity to try to destabilize the pro-Syrian Lebanese government and increase their clout.

In the meantime, Lebanon will observe a week of official mourning with public offices closed and flags at half-staff. Most of the Lebanese political elite, along with Syrian soldiers and laborers, are expected to flock across the border to attend Assad’s funeral Tuesday.