We Should Not Fear the North Koreans

The summit scheduled to begin today between the two Koreas provides an opportunity to evaluate current U.S. policy toward North Korea, in particular whether the North can be relied on if a bargain is struck.

There is considerable skepticism in the United States that North Korea is anything other than a dangerous menace. However, there is much evidence to suggest that North Korean leaders want to open to the outside world. It also is clear that they are cautious and fearful about what change might mean. The U.S. should not lose this opportunity to reinforce their interest in change.

Pyongyang is serious about opening to the outside world. The proper comparison is not how closely North Korea has come to effecting a genuine capitalist transformation (very little), but rather how far they have come from the command economy of 1989 (very far).

North Korea has changed a number of its laws and its constitution to provide a legal framework for foreign investment. North Korea attempted unsuccessfully to join the Asian Development Bank in 1997 and has recently indicated that it may apply to join the International Monetary Fund. In addition, it also has been actively courting middle powers around the region. Australia and Italy have recently normalized ties with North Korea, and this summer the Philippines will be the last member of the Assn. of Southeast Asian Nations to do so. In economic relations, South Korea has led the way, with its conglomerates rapidly expanding their activities in the North with the blessing of both governments.

Perhaps more significant are quiet changes that have taken place. In 1995, English replaced Russian as the required foreign language study in high school. Interpreters get daily articles from the Wall Street Journal and other Western newspapers. U.N. personnel have visited every county in the North, and CNN and the BBC are available in Pyongyang.

Nevertheless, North Korea is a nation in uncharted territory. The country is under tremendous stresses, internationally, politically and economically. It faces many enemies, and almost all its friends have abandoned it.

Opening will inevitably seem very dangerous to North Korean leaders. They have seen the chaos that can occur when such a transition is not handled adroitly. Much U.S. political rhetoric seems to imply that North Korea must engage in a unilateral surrender, accepting that the American way is best. This will not happen. However, the U.S. still has a genuine opportunity to facilitate North Korea’s entry into the community of nations.

We tend to forget that decades of animosity and mistrust make negotiation and communication difficult on both sides. It is not accurate to pretend that the U.S. only wants to be friends and that North Koreans are merely paranoid. Clearly, Washington has reason to mistrust the North. North Korean leaders also mistrust the U.S. They know that the ultimate U.S. goal is the transformation or even the obliteration of their system. North Korean missile tests and chest thumping are done to deter and reduce U.S. pressure. North Koreans may be proud and stubborn, but they are also pragmatic.

Thus the U.S. holds a number of cards, all aces. North Korea is afraid of the U.S. and what it might do. The North clearly needs U.S. and international help. The U.S. has enormous economic and diplomatic influence throughout the region.

So how to approach North Korea?

First, we should take a long view. Its opening will come at a measured pace and over time, and it is unlikely that there will be any quick resolution. The North-South summit is very important, but for symbolic reasons that show North Korea desiring better relations.

Second, call its bluff. We should not overreact to saber-rattling but make very clear that we can walk away if they don’t behave. We also should facilitate economic opening by allowing U.S. companies to trade and invest with the North. This is not “rewarding bad behavior.” Rather, if North Korea wants to join the international community--something the U.S. has been urging for decades--we should facilitate that entry. It makes no sense to call the North Koreans isolationists and then not allow them to trade.

Third, the U.S. can address a knowledge gap that exists in North Korea. Handling this economic transition will be critically important for domestic and regional stability. North Koreans need education about commercial habits and contracts and how market economies work.

Dealt with properly and patiently, North Korea can be brought into the community of nations. War or even chaos in North Korea could end up involving four major powers and costing billions of dollars and millions of lives, many of them American. Because the stakes are so high, it is all the more imperative that we remain patient, take the long-term view, avoid outdated Cold War caricatures, and understand North Korea as it is.