Learning Curve

From their blue perch on a hill above downtown Los Angeles, the Dodgers might have seen the parade and heard the music, loud and full of bass.

Twelve years have passed for them, too, and maybe they wondered how it was the Lakers had recaptured a glorious past, and not them.

These are not necessarily questions for Darren Dreifort, the Dodgers’ strapping right-hander. But, even as the Dodgers must wonder when they will finally fulfill their potential and be great again, so does Dreifort consider his evolution.

In order for the Dodgers to rework themselves into something pennant-worthy, it would help for Dreifort to be the pitcher all but his results proclaim him to be.

A scout behind home plate at Dodger Stadium recently reviewed his reports on Dreifort, looked up and said, “Why doesn’t he win 20 games? It’s a total mystery.”

The mystery is Dreifort’s too. He is 4-6 with a 4.76 earned-run average and he has lost five of his last six starts.

Though he throws hard and has the requisite cranky streak, he has a career record of 31-42, including 25-31 in two-plus seasons as a full-time starter.

“It is a learning curve,” Dreifort said as he stood by his locker in the Dodger clubhouse during a recent homestand. “You start out like a ball of fire, then level off a little bit, then take a big dip and gradually work your way back up.”

The way back up can be a steep climb, and Dreifort has grown weary of questions about his potential. Arms folded across his chest, his eyes narrow. He insists he is stronger than ever, and, indeed, he remains an intimidating pitcher in a game often overrun by big hitters.

So, about that potential? “I’ve been hearing the same thing myself for five years,” he said. “I’m tired of hearing it.”

Tired, he said, because it means he is not yet there, not yet among the game’s accomplished pitchers.

Annoyed, he said, “just because I expect it out of myself. I mean, I’m sure everyone else does too.”

Disappointed, perhaps, because the longer he struggles, the harder the Dodgers’ climb back to a championship will be.

“I don’t know,” he said. “I think it’s getting there. I learn something new every time out. It’ll get there.”

Many baseball experts expect Dreifort to develop into a 20-game winner, largely because he possesses the ability to pitch hard and down in the strike zone. He has natural, darting movement on his pitches. He has a competitor’s edge. He is a ground-ball pitcher in a fly-ball world, more reason to one day expect loads of low-pitch, stress-free innings.

“There’s no question he’s got the stuff,” said Mike Piazza, who caught Dreifort as a Dodger and hits against him as a Met. “There’s a lot of life to his pitches. And, he’s got the emotional makeup, without a doubt. I can’t really say why he hasn’t won more. I know the times he’s pitched against us he’s been very effective. Personally, I consider him to be one of the tougher right-handers in the National League.”

There are 21 active pitchers who have won 20 games at least once. Most are not like former Dodger ace Ramon Martinez, who, as a 22-year-old, won 20 games in his second big-league season. The majority resemble Kevin Brown, who had his first 20-plus win season at age 27, after four years as a big-league starter. Brown was 9-12 the season before he won 21, and 35-32 in his career.

On average, those who reached 20 wins for the first time were 26 years old, had four full seasons of major league starts, were 11-9 the season before they broke through, and previously had a career record of 38-30 over 87 starts.

Dreifort, 28, made his 70th career start on Thursday.

With the Dodgers since 1993, when they made him their first-round selection and second overall pick in the draft, he made his professional debut in the majors in 1994, pitching in relief. On an early course to be a bullpen mainstay, he didn’t make his first major league start until 1998.

Former Dodger pitching coach Dave Wallace said Dreifort’s development will take time.

“It’s a process,” said Wallace, the Mets’ pitching coach. “It’s a long learning curve and it’s a matter of gaining experience. Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown, Pedro Martinez . . . they all needed time. What clicks for each individual depends on his maturation rate.

“Darren will be a very good major league pitcher and probably a dominant one.”

This season, his last before potential free agency, has been more puzzling. He is throwing more pitches per inning, allowing more batters to reach base than ever before and allowing a higher slugging percentage than at any point in his career. At the same time, he is inducing more ground-ball outs than ever, which, standing alone, would be an encouraging sign.

Dreifort gets more run support at 6.83 per game than all but a handful of National League pitchers, including teammate Chan Ho Park, but has won only four of 15 starts.

Among the theories are that he suffers from an occasional lack of concentration, or that he won’t always trust his pitches in the strike zone. Others point to a four- or five-mph loss of velocity during critical at-bats and wonder if he trusts his scouting reports. Most, however, believe Dreifort is having the normal mercurial experience as a young starter, living with mistakes he might not make in his next start, while his ERA grows.

“He’s made a lot of strides,” Dodger Manager Davey Johnson said. “For him, the key is consistency and economizing pitches. Occasionally he has a tendency, because he is by nature very aggressive, to overdo it. He has to trust in his ability. When he’s right, he’s throwing a lot of pitches in the strike zone. He’s making them hit it.”

He walks nearly 4 1/2 batters per nine innings.

“I’m trying to be as objective as I can right now, looking at the walk-to-strikeout ratio,” Piazza said. “It’s true that 74% of walks come in to score. There’s a reason for that. A pitcher starts walking guys and he’s forced to take something off his pitches.”

Dreifort knows he has a way to go, knows the Dodgers need him if they are to become better than average again. He also knows it’s difficult to speed a laborious process.

“I learn something new every time out,” he said. “I learn about the hitter--I learn about myself. I’m not concerned with everybody else and what their expectations of me are. My expectations are even higher. To hear that from anybody else really doesn’t matter.”