Finish Line Close in Some Districts

Say you’re seeking a contested seat in the Legislature and you win your party’s nomination in Tuesday’s primary. In most cases, you would barely have time to sip your victory night champagne before getting back on the stump for the fall election.

But if you’re the Democratic nominee in a handful of districts in Los Angeles County, you can rest assured that you’ll be going to Sacramento, even if you don’t walk another precinct or raise another campaign dollar before the Nov. 7 general election.

That is because voter registration in these districts--most of them covering urban, working-class or minority communities--is so overwhelmingly Democratic that Republicans have virtually no chance of winning, short of a front-runner’s getting caught up in a big scandal.

(In some other, largely white, rural or suburban districts elsewhere in California, Republicans can count on being elected in the fall.)

Demographics in much of the Los Angeles area and the state’s term limits law have combined to produce seven state legislative contests--two for state Senate and five for Assembly--in which the November outcome will, in effect, be determined Tuesday.

“The Democrats who win these primaries could almost go out of town” for the fall campaign,” said Steven Afriat, a Los Angeles political consultant who works on Democratic or nonpartisan campaigns.

The sure bets typically are in areas where voter demographics are so lopsided that they are not subject to the reapportionment battles between the two major parties that take place in so-called swing areas, where registration is more evenly distributed. The boundaries must be redrawn once a decade to reflect population changes, and, in a swing district, a small boundary change may tilt the advantage to one party.

Across Los Angeles County, almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans--2,022,316 to 1,070,759--are registered voters, according to election officials. Within some districts, however, the gap is much wider; in the 51st Assembly District, stretching south and east from Inglewood, for example, Democrats have a 4 to 1 edge. In the seven “sure bet” Democratic seats, GOP registration ranges from 13% to 28%.

“When Republican registration drops below 35% in a district, it’s not a competitive seat; it’s as simple as that,” said political consultant Parke Skelton, whose firm is advising candidates in six such races.

That means that virtually all a candidate’s campaign funds--which may be more than $300,000--will be spent on the primary. And some will probably be spent courting independent and Republican voters, who, under California’s recently implemented blanket primary system, can vote for anyone on the ballot.

All seven races are for seats that are open because, under California’s voter-approved 1990 law limiting terms in the Legislature, the current officeholders cannot seek reelection this year.

Los Angeles’ two hot Senate primaries feature termed-out Assembly incumbents battling for political survival. Assemblyman Wally Knox (D-Los Angeles) and Assemblywoman Sheila Kuehl (D-Santa Monica), erstwhile allies, are competing in an increasingly contentious race that has traumatized liberals in the affluent 23rd District. The seat, which includes the Westside and parts of the San Fernando Valley, is open because the term limits law is forcing Sen. Tom Hayden (D-Los Angeles) to leave.

The other contentious Senate primary is for the largely minority, working-class 25th District, which stretches east from Inglewood through Gardena and Compton to Lynwood and Paramount. The term-limits law is ousting the incumbent, Sen. Teresa Hughes (D-Inglewood).

Fighting to succeed her are Assemblyman Edward Vincent, a former Inglewood mayor endorsed by U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) and county Supervisor Yvonne Brathwaite Burke, and Assemblyman Dick Floyd (D-Wilmington), perhaps best known for his salty speech and his authorship of the motorcycle helmet law. Floyd cannot seek reelection to his 55th Assembly District seat because of term limits, while Vincent will be termed out in the 51st Assembly District in two more years.

The races for the Assembly seats that the would-be senators are leaving are crowded, a reflection of the opportunities candidates see in not having to face incumbents.

“On the whole, I think term limits have been a disaster, but, as these seats now turn over regularly, they have created more opportunities in safely partisan seats, and that part is good,” consultant Skelton said.

In the 42nd Assembly District, based in Los Angeles’ Westside and southern San Fernando Valley, three Democrats are in the primary--West Hollywood Councilman Paul Koretz, attorney Amanda Susskind and physician Daniel J. Stone.

Five Democrats are battling in the Inglewood-to-South-Central Los Angeles 51st Assembly District, including three members of the Inglewood City Council--Jerome Horton, Judy Dunlap and Jose Fernandez. They are joined by Inglewood school board member and attorney Thomasina Reed, and Trini Jiminez, a Lennox school board member. (Inglewood Treasurer Wanda Marie Brown dropped out too late to take her name off the ballot.)

The Carson-area 55th Assembly District has drawn four Democrats: Long Beach Councilwoman Jenny Oropeza; venture capitalist Keith McDonald, whose mother, Juanita Millender-McDonald, represents the area in Congress; Compton Community College board president Carl Robinson Sr.; and civil rights attorney Edward Tabash.

Another four Democrats are running in the east San Gabriel Valley’s 57th District to succeed termed-out Assemblyman Martin Gallegos. They are Gallegos aide and La Puente Mayor Edward Chavez, who has sown up endorsements from his boss and others in the Legislature’s Latino caucus; El Monte Councilman and Cal State Fullerton journalism professor Tony Fellow, who is backed by U.S. Rep. Matthew G. Martinez; Baldwin Park Mayor Manuel Lozano; and Patricia A. Wallach, a former El Monte councilwoman.

The challenge for candidates in crowded primaries is to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack. At a recent forum in Inglewood, for example, the three candidates who attended--Dunlap, Reed and Jiminez--all opposed expansion of Los Angeles International Airport and argued about who would most effectively fight airport noise, congestion and pollution.

Endorsements become especially important in crowded contests with relatively unknown candidates.

Organized labor, with its ability to field precinct walkers and operate telephone banks, can turn the tide in some races. Backing from the state Democratic Party, interest groups and other political figures can be equally important.

Endorsements Boost Opponents in 42nd

For example, in the 42nd Assembly District race, Koretz can tout his strong labor backing and his endorsement from the state Democratic Party, while his main competition, Susskind, is counting on the endorsement--and fund-raising aid--from Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan to help her get crossover votes from Republicans.

With only two Democrats competing to succeed Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa (termed out and running for mayor of Los Angeles), the 45th Assembly District race is an anomaly. The decision by legal services director Antonio de la Rosa to quit after the ballot-printing deadline has produced a head-to-head contest between two openly gay candidates, Los Angeles Councilwoman Jackie Goldberg and AIDS activist Cesar Portillo. The district encompasses parts of Hollywood and Chinatown, Eagle Rock, Echo Park, Highland Park, Silver Lake and Mt. Washington.

To help counter the fact that she is white in a district where the Latino vote is increasingly important, Goldberg, a former teacher and Los Angeles school board member, can cite endorsements by Villaraigosa and county Supervisor Gloria Molina, among others.

Goldberg pushed the council to enact an ordinance requiring city contractors to pay higher than minimum wages plus benefits. One of her mailers features a photo of a working-class Latino family saying, “Thank you, Jackie Goldberg,” in Spanish and English.

Portillo, a former kindergarten teacher and now director of governmental affairs at the AIDS HealthCare Foundation, also has endorsements from other Latino legislators, including state Sen. Richard Polanco (D-Los Angeles) and Gallegos.

Portillo recently took the unusual step of disclosing he was arrested nine years ago after being propositioned by an undercover policeman. He said he suspected the matter would be used against him by Goldberg, who denied that.

Candidate residency has become a big issue in some races, especially in the 55th Assembly District in the southwest part of the county. Tabash, who in 1994 lost the Democratic primary in the Westside-San Fernando Valley’s 41st Assembly District, moved to Harbor City for this contest and has spent more than $300,000, most of it his own or his family’s money. Another candidate, Keith McDonald, has raised suspicion because his wife and child still live in a home outside the district. Rival Carl Robinson Sr. tried unsuccessfully to have McDonald thrown off the ballot.

In the Inglewood-area 25th Senate District, Vincent is trying to portray Floyd as a carpetbagger because Floyd moved from his Carson-area 55th Assembly District to run for Senate. Floyd, however, grew up in the Senate district and represented part of it during his earlier Assembly career.