Feinstein Has Big Lead Over GOP Foes

Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, borne by a rising tide of voter appreciation of her terms in office, holds an imposing lead over her Republican opponents as California’s primary nears, a new Los Angeles Times poll has found.

Californians also strongly support ballot initiatives that would allow expanded gambling on Native American lands and would restrict marriages to those between men and women, the poll found. By a narrower margin, likely voters supported a measure that would loosen the requirements for passage of local school bonds.

Against three Republicans, the most popular of whom was Silicon Valley Rep. Tom Campbell, Feinstein was the choice of more than half of likely voters surveyed--51%--including 1 in 5 Republicans likely to cast ballots March 7. Campbell was favored by 19%, compared with 3% each for his GOP rivals, state Sen. Ray Haynes of Riverside and San Diego County Supervisor Bill Horn.

The findings underscored something obvious to Californians: The contest has yet to ignite sparks among the state’s 14 million registered voters. That was particularly true among Republicans. Fully 34% of likely GOP voters said they did not know whom they would vote for on election day, a number statistically equal to the 35% who sided with Campbell. Twenty percent of Republicans favored Feinstein, 6% Horn and 5% Haynes.

Overall, the poll illustrated a generally content California, with little desire among voters to shake things up.

“The national economy is doing well, their state is doing well, their own finances are doing well. What is there to change?” said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus.

The Times Poll surveyed 1,053 likely voters, including 540 Democrats and 409 Republicans, from Feb. 23 to 28. The margin of error is 3 points in either direction for likely voters, 4 points among Democrats and 5 points among Republicans.

Under terms of California’s blanket primary, voters of any political stripe will be able to vote for politicians from any party Tuesday. In the presidential contest, party delegates will be awarded based only on the votes of party members; in the Senate contest all votes count, and the winning candidate from each party will advance to the general election in November.

Feinstein has no significant in-party competition for the Democratic nomination, and the poll found her drawing the support of 77% of likely party voters. Fourteen percent said they were unsure whom to vote for and another 7% favored Campbell.

Feinstein’s backers, moreover, were vigorous: About 3 of 4 said they were “certain” to vote for her, a determination made by only half of Campbell’s supporters.

To some extent, Campbell suffered because of the campaign’s low profile, as queries about the candidates’ ideologies showed.

When asked if Feinstein was more liberal or more conservative than they, or if she shared their views, 48% of likely voters said she was more liberal, 34% said she shared their views and 11% said she was more conservative. Only 7% were not sure where she stood.

Campbell, in contrast, was a relative unknown. More than half of likely voters--54%--said they did not know enough about him to judge where he stands on the issues. Of those who did, 11% said he was more liberal, 16% said he shared their views and 18% cast him as more conservative. He was less known outside the Bay Area, which he has twice represented in Congress.

While the number of voters who found Feinstein’s views more liberal than their own was high, the poll suggested that even in that group, success for Campbell may be hard to find. Twenty-three percent of those who judged themselves more conservative than Feinstein still planned to vote for her; only 35% of them were committed to Campbell.

Feinstein benefited from a substantial jump in her job approval rating, which has leaped to 60% among registered voters from 54% the last time it was measured, in June. Only a quarter of registered voters said they disapproved of how she is handling her job, the lowest that figure has been since the first two years of her tenure, 1992-94.

The state’s senior senator was not the only political institution to benefit from a boost in voter morale. More than two-thirds of registered voters approved of the way Democratic Gov. Gray Davis is handling his job, up from 54% last June. Even 55% of registered Republicans approved of Davis’ governorship. The Legislature won the backing of a striking 54% of registered voters, the highest ranking since the Times Poll began assessing it in 1983. The state’s junior senator, Democrat Barbara Boxer, found favor with nearly half of the registered voters polled, about the same as last June.

Though Feinstein’s results may have been exaggerated by the lopsided nature of her support, she won the backing of nearly all demographic groups except for Republicans and those describing themselves as very conservative.

Among liberals, she captured nearly 4 out of 5 likely voters, and among moderates was backed by 62% to Campbell’s 14%. While he was supported by 33% of conservatives--who historically have disapproved of his moderate social views--Feinstein did better than expected there, with 21%.

When it came to the blocs of voters sought by candidates, Feinstein trounced Campbell and the other Republicans. Independents, for example: Fifty-seven percent were in Feinstein’s camp, compared to just 6% for Campbell, 1% for Haynes and 3% for Horn.

Feinstein’s two terms in office represent a huge advantage for the senator, who is seeking her second six-year term. (Her first term spanned only two years, a quirk resulting from Pete Wilson’s departure from the post to become governor.) Among those who backed her, 28% cited her experience as the reason. An additional 12% cited honesty, and a similar percentage cited leadership. Ten percent were attracted by her positions on issues.

The largest group of Campbell voters--18%--said they sided with him simply because he is a Republican. Thirteen percent cited honesty and 11% his stands on issues.

There was a potential stumbling block for Campbell. By 60% to 39%, likely voters disapproved of his proposal to allow counties to distribute drugs to addicts in an experimental effort to reduce the illegal drug trade. Nearly half of Campbell’s backers said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who floated such a proposal (the Times Poll did not identify Campbell as the source of the proposal).

Among the initiatives--this will come as no surprise to anyone who owns a television--the most popular was Proposition 1A, which would allow Native Americans to operate slot machines, house-banked card games and other games of chance on their own lands. Supporters of the measure, a sequel to 1998’s Proposition 5, have dominated the airwaves this election season.

Likely voters approved the measure 64% to 29%. Democrats were the most strongly supportive, with 73% backing the measure, compared to 55% of Republicans and 53% of independents. Its popularity swelled across the board; the only voter groups opposed to it were conservative Republicans, who were split, and those who described themselves as “very conservative,” who opposed it by a margin of 52% to 41%.

The hotly contested Proposition 22, which would ban gay marriages, was supported by about 3 in 5 voters, with about a third in opposition. The views among different demographic groups were unpredictable, however.

Democrats were split on the measure, 46% in favor and 45% against. Independents, who typically are moderate on social issues, backed it by a 59%-35% margin. Republicans overall opposed gay marriages by 68% to 27%.

Yet even within the Republican Party there were differences of opinion. Moderate Republicans opposed the gay marriage ban, 52% to 41%, while moderate Democrats backed it, 63% to 28%. Among ethnic groups, 56% of whites backed the ban, as did 54% of Latinos and 64% of blacks.

The results were far more predictable on Proposition 26, which would allow local school bonds to pass with a majority vote, instead of the two-thirds vote now required. It was favored 50% to 38% among likely voters.

Self-described liberals backed the change 3 to 1, while moderates approved it 52% to 37%. Conservatives strongly opposed it, 52% to 36%.

Latino voters were the most in favor of the measure, which proponents argue is necessary to free bond money for school construction. About three in five Latinos supported it. Whites favored the measure by 49% to 42% and blacks by 47% to 30%.

Latinos were a moving force behind the narrow approval of Proposition BB, the 1997 measure to raise money for school construction in Los Angeles. In that election, four of five Latinos backed the proposition.

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California Contests, Issues Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein holds a decisive lead over her Republican opponents as California’s primary nears; a quarter of voters are undecided. Californians strongly support ballot initiatives that would allow gambling on Native American lands and restrict marriages to those between men and women.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,872 Californians registered to vote, including 1,053 voters likely to vote in the California primary on Tuesday, by telephone Feb. 23-28. Among likely voters, 540 were Democrats and 409 were Republicans. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques (RDD) were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and the secretary of state’s figures for party registration. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points, for Democrats it is 4 points and for Republicans it is 5 points. For certain other subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. An RDD oversample of 1,516 black and Latino residents yielded 619 Latino registered voters, including 245 Latino likely voters, and 124 registered black voters. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish. Half of the interviewing of the Latino and black oversample was conducted by Interviewing Service of America, Inc. Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll