Will the Early Primary Affect California’s Other Races?

Less than 48 hours after his comeback victory in the Michigan primary, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) stood in front of a crowd of enthusiastic Sacramento college students and listened to a question. Given the controversy surrounding gay marriage, the young man wondered what the senator thought about Proposition 22, the California initiative that would outlaw such unions.

“Personally,” said a tight-jawed McCain, “I would vote against it.”

A minor buzz went through the assembled media. Had McCain, an ardent opponent of gay marriage, just taken a stance at odds with his legislative history? Well, as it turns out, he had, but it was an accident. Operating on two hours sleep, McCain had answered under the mistaken impression that Proposition 22 legalized gay marriages. When told of the actual wording of the measure, McCain proclaimed to reporters that he would vote “yes.”

“I guess I don’t know the California propositions as well as I should,” McCain explained.

McCain’s temporary befuddlement is excusable. Presidential candidates have never had to weigh in on California’s quirky ballot propositions and contested local races this early. Neither, for that matter, have voters. But in an attempt to give the state a voice in the selection of presidential candidates, the Legislature relocated the primary from June to the first week in March.

The reaction of voters has been nearly euphoric, at least by recent standards. Goosed by McCain’s upset victory over Texas Gov. George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary, Republican registration ticked up for the first time since 1994. One poll showed that three of four Californians were paying attention to the GOP race. But all this new interest brings with it a mystery. How will a competitive primary affect other ballot contests? What, if anything, will those down-ballot combatants do for the presidential warriors?

It’s difficult to find either a candidate or a consultant in these other races who has anything good to say about the accelerated schedule. They especially complain about raising money for political campaigns during the holiday season.

McCain’s wins in New Hampshire and Michigan took care of the apathy factor, at least for Republicans. But with that heightened interest comes another problem: Suddenly, all their turnout predictions, used to decide how much to spend and where to target the all-important direct mail, were rendered useless.

“The budgets were all set up for one turnout model,” said GOP political consultant Wayne Johnson. “Now there are all these [new] people who are not getting mail, not getting phoned, not getting talked to.”

This new dynamic will only increase the advantages of GOP candidates with name recognition, such as U.S. Senate candidate Tom Campbell. Candidates with the ability to raise and spend more on direct mail and media buys will also be helped by the surge of interest in the GOP contest, a delicious irony given McCain’s signature advocacy of campaign-finance reform.

Strangely enough, the biggest fallout from increased Republican participation may occur in contested Democratic primaries. Because the state’s blanket primary allows voters to cast ballots for anyone in any race, all these freshly minted voters could go shopping for the most interesting contest. State Sen. Hilda Solis (D-El Monte) has directly appealed to Republicans in her upstart bid to unseat longtime incumbent Rep. Matthew G. Martinez (D-Monterey Park). In the pitched battle for a Westside state Senate seat, supporters of liberal Democratic Assemblyman Wally Knox (D-L.A.) have criticized opponent Assemblywoman Sheila J. Kuehl (D-Santa Monica) for her ties to the state’s trial lawyers.

For most of the ballot propositions, the impact of the early primary was felt long before the Straight Talk Express emerged from the presidential roundhouse. Initiative advocates had to race to place their issues before voters. The record $42-million campaign to qualify Propositions 30 and 31--referendums to decide the future of new laws expanding the right to sue insurers--was made necessary, in part, by the desire of the insurance-company benefactors to get the issue before voters sooner rather than later. Other propositions were forced to boost their fees to signature gatherers to as much as $4 a signature to ensure a spot on the March ballot.

Yet, most political observers believe the surging interest in the GOP presidential contest will not influence the fortunes of any of the ballot propositions. Consider Proposition 25, the campaign-finance-reform initiative backed by millionaire gadfly Ron K. Unz. Despite McCain’s political identification with campaign reform, and his early endorsement of the measure, the proposition has actually lost ground in the most recent statewide Field Poll.

The only exception to the overall disconnect between turnout and result could come with Proposition 22. Opponents of the gay-marriage ban were looking forward to a competitive Democratic primary between Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley. With Bradley’s challenge fading, the thrill is gone for hard-core Democratic voters, possibly serving to depress their turnout. On the other side, the effect is twofold: McCain is not only drawing in new Republicans, but the reaction against McCain is energizing the GOP’s hard-core conservative base. Since the creative Yes on 22 campaign has tailored its message to appeal across the moderate-to-conservative spectrum, it’s a win-win for them either way.

The biggest question mark surrounding these fair-weather primary participants is not so much how they will vote on the propositions, but whether they will vote at all. The ballot book distributed by the secretary of state is a ponderous 147 pages long, and that’s not counting the supplement distributed a few weeks later. Many voters drawn in by the Bush-McCain dust-up may wind up bailing out on the rest of the ballot.

While turnout projections are an inexact science, they provide at least some statistical framework for analyzing the effect a presidential race will have down-ballot. But gauging the reverse effect--the impact down-ballot races will have on the presidential primary--is mostly a matter of speculation. What seems clear is that candidates hoping for a bump from one or more of the ballot propositions are in for disappointment. None of the 20 ballot measures has the marquee value of Proposition 13, in 1978, or the political urgency of Proposition 225, in 1998, the labor-busting campaign initiative that drew union members to the polls in droves. Again, Proposition 22 could be the exception to the rule, with its appeal to the social-conservative core of the GOP. But these voters have historically needed very little prodding to vote, so even here, the effect, if any, would be minimal.

Candidate contests also offer relatively little upon which national candidates can hang their respective hats. The U.S. Senate contest is virtually invisible: Only incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Campbell were on television as of late last week. Local contests are generally so self-absorbed that links with presidential campaigns are considered risky for challengers and for those running in open-seat contests, the races that draw the most down-ballot interest.

What it all boils down to is that Californians will actually hold two elections Tuesday. One will help decide who gets to appear on “Nightline” that evening and, in all likelihood, who will be giving the prime-time speech at their party’s national convention this summer. The other, run below the radar screen, will help decide the laws and individuals that will be governing California long after the big shots have moved on.