Taiwan Votes in High-Stakes Presidential Poll

With this island’s young democracy and its relationship with China in the spotlight, voters began flocking to the polls this morning to select a new president for only the second time in history.

At stake are the survival of one of the world’s longest-ruling political parties and the future of Taiwan’s ties with the enormous--and hawkish--mainland that looms over its shoulder.

The race remains a dead heat among the three major candidates, Vice President Lien Chan of the ruling Nationalist Party, opposition party nominee Chen Shui-bian and independent James Soong. All three held raucous rallies Friday night, drawing hundreds of thousands of cheering, flag-waving supporters, to make one final, hoarse-voiced push for votes.

For many residents here, especially Taiwan’s large bloc of undecided voters, the choice comes down to a tricky calculus: whether to throw out the Nationalist rascals but risk a confrontation with Beijing by electing Chen, who previously supported Taiwanese independence, or to opt for safer politics but be stuck with a complacent establishment by picking Lien or, to a lesser extent, Soong.

Relations with China dominated the waning days of the campaign, to the benefit of Lien and Soong, who both vaguely support eventual reunification with the behemoth to the west. The prospect of heightened tension with the mainland has jammed the brakes on what many saw as increasing momentum for Chen.

“Stability is the most important,” said Huang Wen-ying, 41. “I had a good impression of both Lien and Chen. At first, I supported Chen Shui-bian more--he was more charismatic, more articulate.

“But with what’s happened these past few days, I’ve decided on Lien,” she said, referring to Beijing’s sharpened rhetoric toward the island that it considers a breakaway province. Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji warned Wednesday that electing a pro-independence candidate could spark war across the narrow Taiwan Strait. The Taiwanese military is on a heightened alert for any signs of election day sabotage.

“Looking at the big picture, I don’t think it’s Chen’s time yet,” Huang added. “I would prefer the Nationalists at the negotiating table [with Beijing] because of their history and their experience. I want peace, not war.”

But where Huang sees disaster, 27-year-old Lan Jung-hsiang sees bluster. Where Huang sees the Nationalists’ experience, Lan sees the corruption of half a century in power.

That’s why his vote goes to Chen, standard-bearer of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party.

“Even though the DPP doesn’t have much experience, it’s still important to have a rotation of power,” said Lan, who sells insurance for a living.

To make himself more electable, Chen has backpedaled on his previous insistence on Taiwanese independence, which remains a plank of his party’s platform. Chen now says that, as president, he would not unilaterally declare independence and would even travel to Beijing to meet with the mainland’s Communist leaders.

“He has to put national interests first,” Lan said Friday as he waited for a train in Taipei, the capital, to return to his hometown to vote. “He has to take into account the will of the people.”

A series of polls has shown that a clear majority of Taiwanese favor keeping relations the way they are, with gradual evolution toward either independence or reunification, depending on China’s progress.

Not long ago, what the majority of Taiwanese wanted counted for little on this island of about 22 million.

Defeated by the Communists on the mainland, Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalist troops fled to Taiwan in 1949. The Nationalists ruled the island with an iron fist, imprisoning dissidents and brutalizing many of the natives. For nearly 40 years, the Nationalists--also known as the Kuomintang, or KMT--clung to power with their army.

But since the lifting of martial law in 1987, Taiwan has transformed itself into East Asia’s most vibrant democracy--despite glowers and threats from the mainland, including Beijing’s firing of missiles into nearby waters before the island’s first direct presidential election in 1996.

“We have our own sovereignty. Our election is our own business,” Lan said. “No one from outside should interfere.”

Despite Beijing’s escalated rhetoric, U.S. Defense Secretary William S. Cohen said American troops in the region had seen no sign that the Chinese are readying for a military attack on Taiwan.

“We do not see any evidence of preparations for an attack, any kind of imminent attack,” Cohen told the Japan National Press Club in Tokyo on Friday. “What we do see is a war of words.”

Even without the tensions, the election campaign has been raucous and, at times, dirty. Soong, who quit the KMT to run as an independent and at one time seemed a shoo-in, has been weakened by allegations of financial misdeeds. Chen has been labeled as the man who will send Taiwan’s sons off to war and the stock market off the deep end. Lien is seen as nothing more than a puppet of outgoing President Lee Teng-hui.

Even Lee has been caught in the web of election intrigue, forced to deny extraordinary rumors that he is secretly drumming up support for Chen over his own vice president, Lien--tantamount to accusing President Clinton of rooting for George W. Bush over Al Gore.

Mudslinging is now a major campaign tactic.

“That’s the American way--we’ve learned a lot from the Americans, copied a lot from their campaigns with negative ads,” said Antonio Chiang, publisher of the Taipei Times.

Besides relations with Beijing, issues of concern to voters include Taiwan’s faltering economy and an end to the corruption that has marked politics for so long--especially the workings of the KMT’s ruthless machine. Voters talk endlessly about the “black gold,” or corruption money, littered throughout the government.

With his previous stint in government but his now-independent status, Soong is just the man for the top job, Lee Hsiao-tan says.

“James Soong knows where the [black] money is,” Lee said. “So he can grab the KMT by the throat and make them spit it out.”

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Times staff writer Paul Richter in Tokyo contributed to this report.

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Crucial Vote in Taiwan

China and Taiwan separated amid civil war in 1949, but China still lays claim to the island. Today’s presidential election will offer an indication of how fearful the Taiwanese are of China’s threats to reunify by force. Here is a sketch of Taiwan and the three leading candidates.

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Leading candidates’ views on China

James Soong,

Independent

Age: 58

Education: Doctorate in political science, Georgetown University

Issues: Has a reputation for being a can-do politician who solves problems for the common people. He would abandon Taiwan’s “state-to-state” position on China, a stance that has raised tensions with Beijing.

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Chen Shui-bian,

Democratic Progressive Party

Age: 49

Education: Law degree, National Taiwan University

Issues: Promises to fight widespread official corruption. He says he will ease tensions with China, but his party’s previous support for independence has earned Beijing’s deep distrust.

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Lien Chan,

Nationalist Party

Age: 63

Education: Doctorate in political science, University of Chicago

Issues: Promises to advance Taiwan’s political reforms by placing his party’s vast business assets into a trust. He says he has the most experience dealing with China and can ensure stability.

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TAIWAN AT A GLANCE

Population: About 22 million

GNP: $284.8 billion (1999)

Economic structure: 64.3% service, 33% industry, and 2.7% agriculture

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Source: Compiled from AP reports

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Zhu Rongji,

Chinese premier

“No matter who comes to power in Taiwan, Taiwan will never be allowed to be independent.”