Win by Putin Is a Long Way From Mandate

It looks like a big victory. But for Russia’s new president, Vladimir V. Putin, it may not be big enough.

Putin defeated his nearest rival, Communist Party candidate Gennady A. Zyuganov, by an ample margin of more than 23 percentage points in Sunday’s presidential election. Most candidates would consider that an impressive win. But in Russia, it’s nearly a loss.

For Putin, “this cannot be seen as any kind of triumphant ‘mandate,’ ” said Andrei Cherkizov, a commentator for Echo of Moscow radio.

The first reason is that, in many ways, Putin wasn’t really running against any of the other candidates. He was running against the 50% mark he needed to avoid a second round. With 52.6% of the vote, he just barely made it.

Moreover, that vote tally is quite a comedown from the stratospheric popularity ratings he enjoyed after he became Russia’s acting president Dec. 31. In January, some polls put his approval rating above 70%.

But the real sign of Putin’s weakness was the strength of the vote for Zyuganov, his Communist rival, who received a surprising 29.3% of the ballots.

“That’s much higher than the Communists’ traditional support level,” said Yuri A. Levada, director of the respected Russian Center for Public Opinion Research. “Zyuganov seems to have received votes from people who might not support the Communists but simply didn’t want to vote for Putin.”

Even in the liberal-minded cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, Zyuganov made a stronger-than-expected showing, collecting even more votes than the traditional liberal favorite, economist Grigory A. Yavlinsky.

Because Putin made few specific promises in his campaign, he claimed supporters from different ends of the political spectrum. But that means his supporters hold contrary political views, and once he starts making policy, he is bound to alienate some of them. His poorer-than-expected showing is also likely to weaken his authority with regional governors and parliament.

Victor Seems Surprised by Communist Vote

The president-elect himself seemed taken aback by the Communists’ strong showing.

“It means there is a big part of the population of Russia that is dissatisfied with the current situation,” Putin said early Monday with a note of modesty in his voice. “It means that in Russia, the so-called protest electorate is very big.”

Levada and other analysts agree that the vote did not reflect an increase in support for the Communists, just a desire to vote against Putin and his Kremlin backers.

“Suddenly they are realizing they’re not as popular as they thought they were,” said Michael McFaul, an elections analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “This has taken the wind out of their sails.”

Consider the anti-Putin vote. Forty-seven percent of those who cast ballots voted directly against him. And more than 30% of the electorate voted passively against him by not showing up at the polls. In effect, for every Russian who decided to vote for Putin, nearly two Russians decided not to vote for him.

Putin “will become the legitimate president, but he will be the president of the minority,” Cherkizov said.

U.S. Officials Glad of First-Round Triumph

In Washington, Clinton administration officials expressed mild surprise at the unexpectedly strong showing by Zyuganov.

Still, officials believe that Putin’s first-round victory is a plus for the United States.

“The lack of a second round will let us get down to issues earlier,” said one State Department official, who also acknowledged that Putin probably will focus first on urgent domestic issues.

President Clinton telephoned the Russian leader Monday, congratulating him on his victory and hailing the peaceful election as “an important milestone in the development of a democratic Russia.”

Clinton urged Putin to work with the United States on such international issues as arms control, nonproliferation and the promotion of regional stability. But he also used the opportunity to press Putin to investigate allegations of atrocities in the war-torn republic of Chechnya.

The White House said that the two leaders discussed a possible meeting but that no date was set.

Putin has enjoyed public support in Russia largely because of the resolute manner in which he has gone to war against the widely feared separatist regime in Chechnya. And he remains far and away the most popular political figure in the country since the early days of Boris N. Yeltsin’s presidency.

But the election results suggest that the support, while broad, might also be shallow. For instance, Levada points out that Putin’s popularity peaked right after he was named acting president. Since then, his ratings have dropped gradually, and they dipped noticeably right before the balloting.

“One reason is that he hasn’t given the people any concrete programs,” Levada said. “And the second reason is that people are getting tired of the war--it’s going on too long, and the losses are rising.”

Duma Members Suggest a Coalition

Members of the lower house of parliament, the Duma, were already suggesting that Putin should form a coalition government with the Communists in order to secure their support.

“We cannot help feeling satisfied with how our candidate Zyuganov did in the elections,” said Anatoly I. Lukyanov, a Duma member from the Communist Party. “I view the future of the Communist Party as being a powerful counterbalance to Putin and his team--to guarantee that Putin is not led astray by some ill-wisher in his entourage. To put it figuratively, we will weigh on his arms and legs and keep his feet on the ground.”

Indeed, now that cracks are visible in Putin’s former invincibility, any number of groups may feel bolder about angling for leverage with the new president.

Among them are the oligarchs, who control large parts of the economy, and “The Family,” Yeltsin’s coterie, which includes wily political operatives such as former campaign manager Anatoly B. Chubais and media tycoon Boris A. Berezovsky.

“This could make Putin and his team less confident about his position,” McFaul said. “And that could open the door to the likes of Chubais or Berezovsky, who’ll say: ‘Don’t be so sure of yourself. Let the pros handle it.’ ”

Putin’s position could erode further if allegations of voting fraud are verified. Several incidents of fraud might be enough not only to tarnish Putin’s reputation but to force a second-round ballot.

All that is highly speculative. But it’s notable that such speculation--unthinkable two days ago-- began swirling as soon as Putin’s victory was announced. It suggests that in Russia’s flimsy democracy, a perceived loss can be more powerful than a real victory. And it shows that the majority of Russian voters, unanchored by a long democratic tradition, can flip allegiances as rapidly as TV channels.

“We hate with a greater passion than we love,” Cherkizov, the radio commentator, concluded. “Just recall the fate of Boris Yeltsin.”

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Times staff writer Tyler Marshall in Washington contributed to this report.