What to Watch

KEY SENATE RACES

A surprisingly large number of Senate races remain in play, keeping alive Democratic hopes of capturing a majority.

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Current Makeup: 54 Republicans; 46 Democrats

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EAST COAST

NEW YORK

Open seat

Hillary Rodham Clinton would make history by going from first lady to senator. She and GOP Rep. Rick Lazio are vying to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan. A Clinton victory would establish her as a party leader; a Lazio triumph would be a huge blow to the Democratic bid to win the Senate.

DELAWARE

The state’s two most popular politicians--five-term GOP Sen. William V. Roth Jr. and two-term Democratic Gov. Thomas Carper--are locked in a tight race that appears crucial to the overall Senate fight. Carper ran an uninspired campaign, but Roth, 79, may have been hurt politically by recent falls that called attention to his age.

NEW JERSEY

Open seat

Democrat Jon Corzine, former CEO of the investment banking firm Goldman Sachs & Co., is sparing no expense to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg. Corzines campaign expenses may total $65 millioneasily a record for a Senate race and much of it his own money. Republican Rep. Bob Franks is banking on a voter backlash to Corzines spending.

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SOUTH

FLORIDA

Open seat

Democrat Bill Nelson, the state insurance commissioner, appeared on track to win the seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Connie Mack. But the GOP candidate, Rep. Bill McCollum, has come on strong in recent days. A win by McCollum, a House impeachment manager, would buoy GOP spirits.

VIRGINIA

A win by Republican George Allen over Democratic Sen. Charles Robb would help provide the GOP a cushion against losses elsewhere. Allen, son of the famed football coach of the same name, was the early favorite, but the race has tightened.

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MIDWEST

MICHIGAN

GOP Sen. Spencer Abraham and Democratic Rep. Debbie Stabenow have waged a spirited campaign that looks to go down to the wire; both parties view the outcome as a key indicator of the Senate battle. Abraham, one of the GOP’s freshman class of 1994, dominated the state’s airwaves early on and opened up a lead. But Stabenow staged a comeback focusing on Abrahams vote against a Democratic-sponsored patients bill of rights.

MINNESOTA

Rod Grams rode the ’94 GOP wave to a surprise Senate win. But his conservative voting record does not match up well with his constituency, making him the nation’s most vulnerable Republican incumbent. Democrat Mark Dayton, running on a liberal agenda, has enjoyed a solid lead in the polls.

MISSOURI

Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan died in a mid-October plane crash and still may defeat GOP Sen. John Ashcroft. Carnahan’s name remains on the ballot, and support for him surged following his death. If he wins, the state’s acting governor has pledged to appoint Carnahan’s widow, Jean, to the fill the seat.

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WEST

NEVADA

Open seat

In the GOP’s brightest hope for gaining a seat, Republican John Ensign, a former House member, is favored to beat Democrat Ed Bernstein, a lawyer. The seat opened up when Democrat Richard Bryan decided to retire.

MONTANA

A late surge by Democrat Brian Schweitzer, a rancher who has focused his campaign on health-care issues, has endangered GOP Sen. Conrad Burns. A Schweitzer victory is the type of upset the Democrats probably need to win the Senate.

WASHINGTON

Veteran GOP Sen. Slade Gorton faces a strong challenge from Democrat Maria Cantwell, who after losing her House seat in 1994 became a wealthy executive at an Internet company. Cantwell would be the first senator with a direct link to the contempory computer and communications industry. Native Americans have organized to defeat Gorton because of his attempts to limit tribal sovereignty.

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KEY HOUSE RACES

Control of the House hinges on the outcome of a few dozen races, including several in California. Even before the polls have closed here, a handful of contests elsewhere should provide crucial clues about the day’s trends.

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Current makeup: 222 Republicans, 209 Democrats, two independents, two vacancies.

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STATES WITH 3 P.M. (PST) POLL CLOSINGS:

INDIANA

8th District (Bloomington, Evansville)

Known as the Bloody Eighth because of its history of close races, the district is living up to its reputation. GOP incumbent John Hostettler is trying to thwart a strong challenge from Democrat Paul Perry; a Hostettler loss would be a big blow to Republicans.

KENTUCKY

3rd District (Louisville area)

GOP Rep. Ann Northup has won two tough races in this Democratic-leaning district, and her bid for a third term figures to be tight. A win by Democrat Eleanor Jordan could signal a good night for the party.

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EAST COAST

NEW JERSEY

7th District (state’s north-central suburbs)

Open seat (held by the GOP)

The race between Democrat Maryanne Connelly and Republican Mike Ferguson has been rated a tossup for months, and each party views this contest as vital to their overall hopes.

12th District (Princeton area)

Democratic Rep. Rush Holt, a first-termer, is in a tough fight with Republican Dick Zimmer, who held the seat in the mid-1990s. Holt is one of the few Democratic incumbents in political jeopardy.

PENNSYLVANIA

10th District (Scranton area)

Two years ago, in a fight for an open seat, Republican Don Sherwood edged Democrat Pat Casey by 515 votes--the closest House race in the nation. The pair are engaged in a rematch that remains a tossup.

SOUTHEAST

ARKANSAS

4th District (state’s southern tier)

Democrats have targeted GOP incumbent Jay W. Dickey. GOP congressional leaders responded by funneling large doses of federal dollars to several projects in his district.

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MIDWEST

MICHIGAN

8th District (Lansing area)

Open seat (held by a Democrat)

Two state lawmakers--Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Dianne Byrum--are facing off in a swing district in a battleground state. Many political analysts view this as the year’s ultimate bellwether district for House races.

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WEST

MONTANA

Statewide district

Open seat (held by the GOP)

Supt. of Public Instruction Nancy Keenan, a Democrat, had been leading in the race to replace retiring Rep. Rick Hill, a Republican. But the contest has tightened, throwing in doubt Democratic hopes for a pick-up.

UTAH

2nd District (Salt Lake City)

Open seat (held by the GOP)

A likely Democratic pickup in an overwhelmingly Republican state. Combative Republican Rep. Merrill Cook lost a primary race to Internet businessman Derek Smith. But Smith, in turn, is the underdog to Democrat Jim Matheson, son of a popular former governor.

CALIFORNIA

15th District (San Jose)

Open seat (held by the GOP)

With GOP Rep. Tom Campbell giving up his seat to run for the Senate, state Sen. Mike Honda, a Democrat, and Assemblyman Tom Cunneen, a Republican, are battling to replace him. A close race is expected.

20th District (Central Valley)

Rep. Calvin M. Dooley is seen as the state’s most vulnerable Democratic House member. Republican Rich Rodriguez hopes to benefit from the district’s growing Latino population.

27th District (Glendale, Burbank, Pasadena)

In the nation’s most expensive House race, GOP Rep. James Rogan is trying to hold off a stiff challenge from Democratic state Sen. Adam Schiff.

36th District (South Bay)

GOP Rep. Steven T. Kuykendall seeks to keep his seat from falling back into the hands of Democrat Jane Harman, who held it for three terms in the 1990s. Another tossup.

49th District (San Diego area)

GOP Rep. Brian P. Bilbray, onetime mayor of Imperial Beach, faces a well-funded challenge from Democratic Assemblywoman Susan A. Davis.

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THE WHITE HOUSE

Republican George W. Bush appears to have 25 states locked up and another two leaning his way, but the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House remains tight. Democrat Al Gore has fewer states in his camp, but they carry a large number of electoral votes. Six states remain tossups. Heres how the map looks on election eve, based on public and private polls and analyses from the campaigns.

Sources: Times staff; state polls

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A Tip Sheet for

Election Night Viewers

Want to beat the pundits at their own game? You too can predict the next president of the United States before all the votes are counted by carefully monitoring the returns in a handful of key states.

Forget about the overall popular vote. Think of the nation as an kind of electoral chessboard, with pieces moving from right to left. To win, a candidate needs 270 out of 538 electoral votes.

From the vantage point of the West Coast, with a three-hour time difference, it may be possible to know the outcome well before the last polls close at 8 p.m. PST.

What follows is a viewer’s guide to the election returns for would-be prognosticators, noting the states to watch and the times their polls close.

Traditionally, the first returns come from two tiny (and reliably Republican) small towns in northern New Hampshire, which vote soon after midnight local time and report the results within minutes.

The first state polls to close will be in Indiana and Kentucky, at 3 p.m. PST. Republican George W. Bush should win both states and pick up 20 electoral votes. A loss in Kentucky could signal danger for Bush.

At 4 p.m. PST the polls close in another six states. The one to watch is Florida with 25 electoral votes, although with the race so close, it could be hours before the outcome is known. A Bush loss in Florida would mean very serious trouble for him.

The Granite State has only four electoral votes, but New Hampshire is important to watch for another reason: The Clinton-Gore ticket twice carried the state and a loss for Democrat Al Gore there could be taken as an early symptom of Clinton-Gore fatigue across the country.

At 4:30 p.m. PST, polls close in three more states. Bush needs to win Ohio’s 21 electoral votes; no Republican has ever been elected president without carrying the Buckeye State. Conversely, a Gore loss in West Virginia, a longtime Democratic stronghold with five electoral votes, would be cause for nervousness in the Gore camp.

The polls close in 15 more states at 5 p.m. PST. There are several to watch in this batch. The two most important are Pennsylvania (23 electoral votes) and Michigan (18 votes). If either candidate wins those two states along with Florida, the race is probably over. A split decision suggests a tight finish and makes Missouri’s 11 electoral votes extremely important. On the other hand, a Gore loss in New Jersey (15 electoral votes) and/or Illinois (22 electoral votes) would point toward a Bush blowout.

Gore’s home state of Tennessee (11 votes) is also in this round, and it’s a tossup. George McGovern, in 1972, was the last presidential candidate to lose his home state.

If all that is too confusing--and you’re a big believer in history repeating itself--just look to Delaware, with three electoral votes; the First State has gone with the winner in every presidential race since 1952, the longest streak of any state.

Streaks, of course, can be broken. So when the polls close at 5:30 p.m. PST in Arkansas (six electoral votes), it may be instructive to see how President Clinton’s home state goes; if the race looks tight, a Gore loss here could be a bad sign.

The polls close in another 13 states at 6 p.m. PST. At that point, look to Wisconsin (11 electoral votes). Depending on what has happened up to that point, Gore may need it to win. Louisiana (nine electoral votes), Arizona (eight) and Colorado (eight) should all go Bush’s way. At 7 p.m. PST, the polls will close in seven more states, including Iowa (seven) and New Mexico (five). Gore needs Iowa more than Bush; both fought hard for New Mexico. A Gore win in Nevada (four) would be surprising and suggest things are breaking the vice president’s way.

Finally, at 8 p.m., the polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. If the race is still too close to call, a Bush sweep of Washington and Oregon would almost certainly put him in the White House; ditto for Gore. A Bush upset in California means he wins in a walk.

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Past Viewership

Source: Nielsen Media Research