Clinton Names N. Ireland Veteran Mitchell to Shepherd Mideast Probe

President Clinton on Tuesday named former Sen. George J. Mitchell, who helped broker the shaky Northern Ireland peace agreement, to lead an international investigation of the five-week outburst of violence in the Middle East.

White House spokesman Jake Siewert said the five-member commission headed by Mitchell “will provide an independent and objective review of the current crisis with the goal of preventing its recurrence.” Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat endorsed the inquiry during an emergency summit last month at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el Sheik.

Clinton, trying to exert U.S. influence despite his lame-duck status, appointed the commission members as he prepared to hold White House meetings with Arafat on Thursday and Barak on Sunday. Clinton is expected to press both men to live up to the Sharm el Sheik cease-fire agreement, which so far has had little discernible effect on the continuing violence in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

U.S., Israeli and Palestinian experts say Clinton’s meetings with Arafat and Barak are unlikely to produce much more than the truce plan he brokered last month. So far, neither side has lived up to that agreement.

Nevertheless, Clinton has vowed to keep trying to mediate a Middle East settlement until he leaves office Jan. 20. He clearly has the constitutional right to do so. But unless he gets a clear and public endorsement from the winner of Tuesday’s presidential election, his influence is sure to erode quickly.

In addition to Mitchell, a Maine Democrat, Clinton named to the commission former Sen. Warren B. Rudman, Republican from New Hampshire; former Turkish President Suleyman Demirel; the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana; and Norwegian Foreign Minister Thorbjorn Jagland.

The panel marks Mitchell’s first foray into the turbulent politics of the Middle East. In Northern Ireland, he mediated the 1998 Good Friday peace accord, which was intended to establish a provincial government that would bridge the sectarian divide. The plan is credited with reducing the level of violence in the British province, but it has yet to produce a stable peace.

Although only two of the commission members are Americans, the Sharm el Sheik compromise gives the United States ultimate control of the investigation. Arafat had wanted an international commission selected by the United Nations, while Barak insisted on a U.S.-led panel. The compromise, close to what the Israelis wanted, authorized Clinton to pick the panel in consultation with Israel, the Palestinians and the United Nations.

The commission’s report will be given to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan before it is made public, but he will have no authority to change it.

The Palestinians have become disillusioned about the U.S. role as Middle East mediator and have called for the United Nations, European Union and Russia to become more involved. Israel, which distrusts the U.N. and the EU, has insisted that Washington continue to take the lead.

U.S. officials say Clinton has nothing new to offer when he meets with Arafat and Barak. These officials say the president has put his hopes for an overall Middle East settlement on the back burner and plans to concentrate on the much less ambitious goal of stopping the violence. Success is unlikely even in that.

“The steps that were agreed at Sharm el Sheik are the ones that we think are necessary to restore calm to the region,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said. “Before we go looking for new ideas, it’s important to . . . carry out the commitments that the parties have made already.”

Of course, it has become almost a cliche of the Middle East peace process for officials to try to lower expectations so that even a modest advance will look like success. But this time, the mutual pessimism seems to be about all the Israelis and Palestinians can agree on.

“It’s not just a game of lowering expectations--it’s genuine this time,” said Mark Heller of Tel Aviv’s Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, a foreign policy research center. “On the Palestinian side, the expectations of what they want from Israel [in exchange for] stopping the violence have risen. On the Israeli side, the assessment of Arafat’s ability to put the lid on [the uprising] has fallen.”

Asked what he expects from the Washington talks, Palestinian political analyst Ghassan Khatib replied: “Nothing. Arafat is going with no hope and no expectation. He is going only for reasons of public relations and protocol. You don’t turn down an invitation from the president.”

Paradoxically, Clinton’s lame-duck status is both his weakness and his strength in dealing with Arafat and Barak. Although his power is ebbing, Clinton can warn the two leaders that unless they make a deal with him quickly, they may have to wait a long time for similarly high-level U.S. mediation.

“Neither presidential candidate is likely to want to become the nanny for the Palestinians and the Israelis,” said Sam Lewis, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. “The next secretary of State will have to be the point person.”

In an echo of his unsuccessful push for a U.N.-led investigating panel, Arafat is expected to demand during his White House meeting that an international peace force be sent to the West Bank and Gaza Strip to provide a neutral and objective military presence in the conflict. Although the United States has long opposed such an idea, U.S. officials hinted recently that Clinton might support the plan if it is acceptable to Israel. But the Israelis have rejected the proposal already.

“We demand international forces--mobile units that can be deployed against Israelis in attacks against Palestinian people,” chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said at a news conference Tuesday. “We have the right to protection.”

The downbeat expectations came despite a day of reduced violence in the region. Chief Israeli government spokesman Nachman Shai issued a statement saying the number of clashes between Palestinians and Israeli Defense Forces units had declined 30% to 40% in recent days.

One Palestinian youth was killed Tuesday during a clash with Israeli troops at the site of Rachel’s Tomb in Bethlehem, while the driver of a small, explosives-laden boat was killed when the craft blew up near an Israeli gunboat off the Gaza Strip in what was believed to be a botched suicide attack.

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Kempster reported from Washington and Marshall from Jerusalem.