Recount May Prompt Calls for Others

In the escalating conflict over the presidential election, Republicans are considering demanding recounts in enough close states to possibly push Al Gore below an electoral college majority even if he wins Florida.

One senior GOP operative, who asked not to be identified, said the Republican National Committee has dispatched aides to examine the possibility of recounts in Iowa and Wisconsin--both of which Democrat Gore now leads by narrow margins. And, he said, Republicans could seek a recount in Oregon if Gore holds the lead that he took there Thursday.

Those warnings suggest that the struggle for Florida, which has centered on Democratic allegations that the Palm Beach County ballot was flawed, could trigger a cascading series of challenges across the country, all designed to prevent either side from claiming the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The senior GOP operative said that, if the Democrats pressed the challenge in Florida too far, the result could be analogous to World War I, when a local conflict in the Balkans eventually produced a continent-wide war.

“Once you start the process, the idea that it is going to stop in a couple of Democratic counties in Florida is ludicrous,” the official said. “It is going to go on everywhere. You are sliding toward a very dangerous situation that is not going to be over in a week or two.”

Indeed, in a year when the candidates finished less than five percentage points apart in fully 17 states, both sides have plenty of opportunities for further challenges. In an interview, New Hampshire Democratic Party chairwoman Kathleen Sullivan acknowledged that she contacted the secretary of state there Wednesday to raise the possibility of a recount; Texas Gov. George W. Bush won the state by less than 8,000 votes.

Sullivan said the chance of the party demanding a recount was “remote.” But she said Democrats have not ruled it out; under New Hampshire law they have until Monday to request a new tally.

Both sides still are hesitant about initiating challenges in new states. Yet, at the same time, emotions clearly are rising. At a news conference Thursday, for instance, Gore campaign chairman Bill Daley said of the Bush camp, “I believe their actions to try to presumptively crown themselves the victors, to try to put in place a transition, run the risk of dividing the American people and creating a sense of confusion.”

Fired back the senior Republican official: “Being lectured about the sanctity of ballots by anybody named Daley is more than any Republican can stand.” That was a reference to allegations that Daley’s father, the late Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley, engineered ballot-box stuffing in 1960 that helped John F. Kennedy win the White house.

Looming over all of this maneuvering is the extraordinarily narrow electoral college margin separating Gore and Republican Bush. At the moment, Gore leads in states that account for 255 electoral votes. Bush leads in states that total 246 votes. New Mexico (with five electoral votes), Florida (25) and Oregon (seven) still are too close to call, though Gore has taken a 3,375-vote lead in Oregon with 99% of precincts reporting.

If all the states now in each man’s camp remained there, whoever wins Florida would exceed the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. But if a recount gave New Hampshire and its four electoral votes to Gore, Bush would be short even if he wins Florida (assuming Gore holds Oregon). Conversely, if recounts denied Gore the 25 electoral votes of Iowa, Wisconsin and Oregon, the vice president would fall just short of a majority even if he wins Florida.

Both parties are mulling their options with one eye on the legal system and the other on the court of public opinion. Bush and Gore are constrained by the same challenge: establishing legitimacy for their actions and the ultimate result in what is sure to be a disputed conclusion no matter who wins.

“Both of them, if they become president, need it to be seen as a legitimate outcome,” says political scientist Gary Jacobson of UC San Diego.

Democrats say that, in pressing his case, Gore must not appear as though he is a sore loser demanding a rematch because he seemingly fell short in the contest; that concern could inhibit Democrats from opening challenges in states other than Florida.

Conversely, Republicans say that Bush, while trying to project confidence that he has won the election, must be careful not to appear presumptuous in claiming the mantle too quickly.

That balancing act played out Thursday behind closed doors in Austin, Texas. According to several GOP sources, the Bush campaign, expecting that Florida officials would produce a final recount Thursday that certified the governor as the winner, planned to announce this morning that its transition team would be led by running mate Dick Cheney.

“That seemed to be the option they were leaning toward,” one Republican close to the campaign said. Some sources said the announcement also could have included the appointment of former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Colin L. Powell as Bush’s secretary of State.

But Bush’s camp apparently decided to back off the idea after a news service tally of the recount showed his margin in Florida plummeting Thursday and state officials indicated that the final results might not be available until next week. One senior Bush advisor said emphatically Thursday night that there would be no announcements today.

The original plan to announce a transition team reflected the Bush camp’s desire to strike an above-the-fray pose that portrayed the Democrats’ complaints as a minor speed bump on the road to the White House.

But the campaign was barraged with complaints over the last two days from Republicans who felt they were too passive in responding to Democratic accusations about Florida. Largely in response, Bush’s side presented a more aggressive defense at a Thursday news conference.

Part of that intensifying Republican response is increased discussion of possible recounts in Iowa and Wisconsin. In Iowa, Gore appeared to draw 3,115 votes more than Bush. In Wisconsin, the margin was 6,099 for Gore.

Karl Rove, a Bush campaign strategist, insisted Thursday that there were no plans to seek a recount in those states. But Republicans in both states, and at the RNC, were laying the groundwork, just in case.

“We’re keeping the option open,” said Rod Hise, executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party. He said party officials were concerned about “very serious allegations made that the Democrats were bribing homeless voters with packs of cigarettes in Milwaukee County.”

Susan Lagana, spokeswoman for the state’s Democratic Party, said the people involved were not working for the local party or the Gore campaign. “We know they came from out of town as volunteers, and were only here for one day,” Lagana said.

Lagana and Bob Tully, executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party, said they were confident that the Gore wins would be upheld should recounts be requested by the Bush campaign.

Ann Dougherty, communications director for the Iowa Republicans, said there were no signs of fraud there. But the margin was so close, she said, a recount might be a sensible move.

“If it’s under 1%, we think it’s legitimate to recount it,” Dougherty said.

Automatic recounts, like the one conducted in Florida when the margin dipped below 0.5%, do not occur in either Iowa or Wisconsin.

Under Iowa law, if the vote margin is less than 1%--as it is now--a candidate can ask for a recount without paying for it, said Chet Culver, Iowa secretary of state. If the margin is higher, the candidate must post a $1,000 bond for each county in which a recount is requested--or $99,000 for a statewide recount.

In Wisconsin, a recount is free if the margin of victory is less than 0.5%--as it is now--according to the state elections code. Otherwise, a recount costs $5 per ward. Wisconsin has about 5,000 wards.

Culver, a Democrat, said he was not aware that Iowa had ever conducted a statewide recount.

“We have a good process in place that involves bipartisan efforts to make sure those numbers are correct,” he said. “I have no reason to think that these numbers won’t hold.”

If the numbers do hold, then Cedar County, Iowa, will have a claim to fame. It appears to be the only county in the nation where Bush and Gore tied: 4,025 votes each. And there, as elsewhere, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader made a difference, collecting 211 votes.

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Times staff writer Maria L. La Ganga contributed to this story.