Party Revolt Threatens Mori Tenure

Japan’s government was thrown into crisis today when rebel Liberal Democratic Party faction leader Koichi Kato announced that he will support a no-confidence vote against his own party’s unpopular prime minister, Yoshiro Mori.

Political analysts said it was impossible to predict whether Kato would succeed in summoning the votes to oust Mori, who is president of the Liberal Democratic Party as well as prime minister. However, they said that, even if the no-confidence motion fails to topple Mori, the LDP remains in danger of rupturing for the second time since 1993. The opposition vows to bring the motion to parliament Monday.

Mori has insisted that he will not resign, and top LDP leaders have publicly backed him. But analysts predicted that fierce behind-the-scenes pressure will be brought to bear this weekend to urge Mori to resign before Monday’s parliamentary battle, in order to avoid splitting the LDP.

“I do not know the results; it’s far too difficult to predict,” said independent political analyst Hiroshi Takaku. “But no matter what happens, the LDP will be in danger. . . . Regardless of the vote, LDP unity will be totally destroyed and a party split may take place.”

Mori is scheduled to return home tonight from a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in Brunei. “I might not have a job by the time I get home,” he quipped Tuesday, as Kato’s challenge took shape. But on Thursday, he told reporters in Brunei: “I will respond squarely [to the no-confidence vote]. There is no need to run away.”

The Sankei daily newspaper predicted in today’s editions that Mori would probably prevail.

Takao Iwami, a political analyst, said today that he expects the no-confidence vote to succeed, forcing the Cabinet to resign en masse and a new election to be held for the prime minister’s post.

“They’re running around now counting every single vote, so they will know over the weekend whether it will pass,” Iwami said.

Kato, a former LDP secretary-general, Foreign Minister Yohei Kono and former Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura are most frequently mentioned as candidates to succeed Mori. The mainstream of the LDP considers Kato a traitor and will probably throw its weight behind another candidate, Iwai and Takaku agreed.

Kato and his allies hold 64 of the 272 seats in the ruling coalition, made up of the LDP and its two partners, the New Komeito and the New Conservatives. It is far from clear whether all of the faction would follow him in voting no-confidence against Mori, because LDP Secretary-General Hiromu Nonaka has threatened to expel anyone who votes for the no-confidence motion. But it is by no means certain that Nonaka is powerful enough to kick out LDP lawmakers who fail to show up for the vote--and 18 absentees would be enough to ensure Mori’s defeat, according to Japanese media tallies.

LDP lawmakers who face upper house elections next summer are convinced that they will go down to defeat with the unpopular Mori at the helm and are searching for a face-saving way to replace him, Takaku said. If they vote against Mori, they may face expulsion, but if they vote for him, they will have to explain to their constituents why they backed one of the nation’s most disliked prime ministers since World War II.

Even if the no-confidence vote fails, Nihon University political scientist Tomoaki Iwai rates the chances of an LDP split as “50-50.” Kato could either start his own splinter party or try to form a coalition with the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

The Harvard University-educated Kato is a former Foreign Ministry official who is seen as one of the more intellectual members of the Liberal Democratic Party. He is a fiscal conservative who has vowed to trim Japan’s pork-barrel deficit spending.

Mori has been prime minister since April, when his predecessor collapsed with a stroke. His popularity has plummeted as a result of a number of gaffes and scandals, as well as an economy that remains feeble. Polls show that only 18% of Japanese support him, while 67% disapprove, with the rest undecided.