Outcome of Election May Turn on Debates

With their race stubbornly close, George W. Bush and Al Gore enter a series of crucial debates this week, each trying to shoulder past his rival while easing doubts about his own vulnerabilities.

Bush may be easygoing and friendly, but does the Texas governor have the heft to fill the president’s Oval Office chair?

Vice President Gore may be smart and experienced, but is he grounded in a set of principles that go beyond the tactical maneuvers needed to win the White House?

Tuesday night, for 90 minutes on a stage in Boston, the two presidential rivals will seek to answer those questions and others they have tried to anticipate in hours of preparations and debate rehearsals, which continued this weekend at their respective retreats.

While debates have been an important part of presidential campaigning for the last 40 years, this year’s installments could be even more significant, given the candidates’ neck-and-neck standing in national surveys and the fact that many voters seem wobbly in their commitments.

“Many Americans are still ambivalent about both Bush and Gore, and this will be the first opportunity for a sustained look side-by-side at these two guys,” said Darrell West, a Brown University expert on political communications.

With the two candidates trading a slim lead in national polls, West said, “the debates this time could be more important than ever before.”

The three meetings between Democrat Gore and Republican Bush, starting at the University of Massachusetts and concluding two weeks later in St. Louis, appear to have a ready audience. (The vice presidential hopefuls will debate once, Thursday night in Kentucky.)

Of those surveyed in a recent Los Angeles Times poll, 79% said it was important for Bush and Gore to debate. Of those, three out of four said the candidates’ performance would be important in deciding which nominee to support.

Further elevating the stakes, a large chunk of voters say they could very well change their minds between now and Nov. 7, election day.

Although Gore is leading in most battleground states--giving him the edge in the race to win the 270 electoral votes needed to take the White House--nonpartisan pollster Andrew Kohut said his surveys show that fully one-third of voters are either undecided or willing to switch candidates. ‘The swing voters remain pretty much up in the air,” said Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. “It’s anyone’s race.”

Which is why the debates could prove to be pivotal.

For all the practice drills, hand wringing and post-debate spin, historians say it is unclear whether a presidential debate ever decisively altered the outcome of an election. The two possible instances, however, occurred in races similar to this one--tight contests with see-sawing leads.

The first was the 1960 race between then-Vice President Richard Nixon and Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kennedy. When the debate started, Republican Nixon was a mere point ahead in a Gallup national poll. After the vice president’s famously sweaty performance, Democrat Kennedy grabbed a slight lead and held on through three more debates to eke out a narrow victory.

Twenty years later, President Carter led former California Gov. Ronald Reagan by a few points in a Gallup poll before their sole debate. Reagan turned in a solid performance and the polls flipped overnight, with the Republican romping to the White House a week later.

In both cases, political analysts say, the challengers succeeded on a personal level in reinforcing their positive characteristics while dispelling any lingering concerns among voters.

“Kennedy came across as cool and capable. Reagan came across as confident and not too much of an extremist,” Kohut said. “We don’t remember” issues.

Indeed, the result of those debates and many more suggest how personality and performance can often trump a mastery of policy.

“Issues are not what’s unique about presidential debates,” said Alan Schroeder, a Northeastern University professor who has written an authoritative history on the subject. “You can get information about issues from a lot of different sources.” What makes debates the marquee events of the fall campaign, he said, is the way they “bust through the veneer of control that the candidates and their handlers impose on the process.”

“It allows you to check out the personal dimensions of a candidate, the way you would check out anybody interviewing for a job,” Schroeder said. “You want to see how they respond under enormous pressure: Do they maintain their cool? Do they get rattled?”

Democrat Michael S. Dukakis proved the importance of the human element. In 1988, he appeared a bit too collected when asked if he would oppose the death penalty if his wife, Kitty, was raped and murdered. His bland demurral sealed negative impressions of the diffident Massachusetts governor and cemented Dukakis’ defeat three weeks later.

With all that history in mind, the two presidential rivals are spending the weekend huddled with their handlers at their respective debate training camps. Bush was cloistered at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, while Gore was drilling at a Florida marine lab, where he rehearsed for the vice presidential debate four years ago.

For weeks, the candidates have been poring over briefing materials and position papers in private while publicly extolling the debate prowess of their opponent--the better to lower expectations for their own performances.

Gore is by far the more experienced debater, turning in two of his stronger appearances when he vanquished GOP vice presidential rival Jack Kemp in 1996 and businessman Ross Perot in a 1993 debate about the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Bush’s record is mixed. He held his own against the razor-tongued Ann Richards on the way to defeating the Democratic Texas governor in 1994. And after a rocky start in Republican primary debates earlier in this campaign, Bush became a far more sure-footed performer.

His task, analysts say, is the classic one faced by candidates such as Kennedy against Nixon, Carter against President Ford in 1976 and Reagan against President Carter in 1980, when each went up against established Washington figures and had to prove their mettle.

“People like [Bush], but they want to know if he has the gravitas to do the job as president,” said Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster. “If he can stand on the same stage as Al Gore, an incumbent vice president for eight years . . . and hold his own, that’s really all he needs.”

But Schroeder and others say Bush has to do more than just survive, now that his once-handsome lead in the national and state-by-state polls has evaporated. Bush will take the stage in Boston burdened by questions about his intellect and humility and must do nothing to reinforce those doubts.

“He can’t appear uninformed on anything, because that’s what the media in particular and the audience in general are waiting for,” Schroeder said, adding that Bush also must avoid “this sort of presumptive air that somehow he deserves [to win] just by dint of who he is.”

If Bush’s strength is his personality--and his weakness is perceptions of his cerebral skills--Gore’s problem is the exact opposite.

Few question the vice president’s capacity to serve as president. He remains shadowed, however, by the scandals of President Clinton’s administration--which raise doubts about Gore’s own ethics--and often has turned off voters by seeming doctrinaire and sometimes condescending.

Paul Maslin, a Democratic pollster, said the vice president has to come across Tuesday night as “knowledgeable and experienced . . . without seeming too preachy.”

It’s not so much likability, but seeming “real,” as Schroeder put it. Gore “needs to seem like someone who actually believes what he’s saying, instead of posing and trying to be all things to all voters.”

With an audience expected to number in the tens of millions, no other fall campaign event can match the debates for their power to shape public opinion and change the dynamic of a race. Long after the TV lights go out, the catchiest sound bites and snappiest comebacks will be recycled endlessly, deeply etching the candidates’ images in the minds of voters.

“People do pay attention” to the debates, said West, head of the Taubman Center for Public Policy at Brown University. “Literally, they are going to be the single most important event in the month of October, just in terms of their staying power and their ability to affect how people see the two candidates.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

There They Go Again

Except for the debate between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole four years ago, televised presidential debates have won large audiences -- more than the 58 million who watched the August finale of “Survivor” but only about half of the usual Super Bowl audience. The number of debates has varied. Here are some memorable debate quotes, along with the average TV audience for each set of debates.

“I think Mr. Nixon is an effective leader of his party. I hope he would grant me the same. The question before us is: which point of view and which party do we want to lead the United States?”

--John F. Kennedy, 1960 debate

*

1960

John F. Kennedy (D)

vs. Richard Nixon (R)

4 debates

AVERAGE AUDIENCE VIEWERSHIP: 63.1 million

*

1964

No debate between

Barry Goldwater (R) and

Lyndon B. Johnson (D)

*

1968

No debate between

Hubert H. Humphrey (D)

and Nixon.

*

1972

No debate between

George S. McGovern (D)

and Nixon.

*

1976

Jimmy Carter (D) vs.

Gerald Ford (R)

3 debates

AVERAGE AUDIENCE VIEWERSHIP: 65.4 million

*

“There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration.”

--Gerald Ford

*

1980

Carter vs.

Ronald Reagan (R)

1 debate (Carter skipped a debate between Reagan and Independent John B. Anderson.)

AVERAGE AUDIENCE VIEWERSHIP: 80.6 million

*

“I think when you make that decision [on election day] it might be well if you could ask yourself, are you better off than you were four years ago?’

--Ronald Reagan

*

1984

Walter F. Mondale (D) vs. Reagan

2 debates

AVERAGE AUDIENCE VIEWERSHIP: 66.2 million

*

“I will not make age an issue in this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

-- Ronald Reagan, then 73.

*

“I have as much experience in the Congress as Jack Kennedy did when he sought the presidency.”

--Dan Quayle (R) in vice presidential debate.

*

1988

George Bush (R) vs.

Michael S. Dukakis (D)

2 debates

AVERAGE AUDIENCE VIEWERSHIP: 66.2 million

*

“Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy.”

--Lloyd Bentsen’s reply to Quayle.

*

1992

Bush vs. Bill Clinton (D)

and Ross Perot (I)

3 debates

AVERAGE AUDIENCE VIEWERSHIP: 90.3 million

*

“So, if it’s time for action, I think I have experience that counts. If there’s more time for gridlock and talk and finger pointing, I’m the wrong man.”

--Ross Perot

*

“And it seems to me that, if you take a look, are you better off? Well, I guess some may be better off. Saddam Hussein is probably better off than he was four years ago.”

--Bob Dole

*

1996

Clinton vs. Bob Dole (R)

and Perot (Ref.)

2 debates

AVERAGE AUDIENCE VIEWERSHIP: 41.2 million

Campaign 2000 Debate Schedule

TUESDAY, OCT. 3

University of Massachusetts

Boston

Participants: Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore

Moderator: PBS anchor Jim Lehrer

Format: Candidates will stand behind lecterns. Each candidate will have two minutes to answer questions followed by one-minute replies from their opponent. Lehrer will have discretion to extend the discussion.

*

THURSDAY, OCT. 5

Centre College

Danville, Ky.

Participants: Republican vice presidential candidate Dick Cheney and Democrat Joseph I. Lieberman

Moderator: CNN anchor Bernard Shaw

Format: Talk-show style with candidates seated around a table with Shaw. Candidate will have two minutes to answer questions. Shaw will have discretion to extend the discussion.

*

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 11

Wake Forest University

Winston-Salem, N.C.

Participants: Bush and Gore

Moderator: Lehrer

Format: Talk-show style. Same as Oct. 5 debate.

*

TUESDAY, OCT. 17

Washington University

St. Louis

Participants: Bush and Gore

Moderator: Lehrer

Format: Candidates will have two minutes to answer audience questions, but Lehrer can extend discussion.

*

All debates scheduled for 6-7:30 p.m. Pacific time

*

ON THE RADIO...

KCRW-89.9 FM and other National Public Radio stations

*

Compiled by John Tyrrell / Los Angeles Times

Sources: Commission on Presidential Debates, Gallup national polls, Times files, various news wires. Associated Press wire photos.

Presidential Debates by the Numbers

18

Number of televised

presidential debates.

*

5

Number of televised vice

presidential debates.

*

+8

Biggest bounce, in

percentage points, in

post-debate poll. (For Perot in

1992.) (1)

*

-6

Biggest drop, in percentage

points, in post-debate poll.

(For Bill Clinton in 1992.) (1)

*

36.3 million

Smallest debate TV audience. (For the

second 1996 debate between Clinton

and Dole).

*

97.0 million

Largest debate TV audience. (For the third

1992 debate with Clinton, Perot and

Bush.)

*

78

Number of times

Clinton used the words

“economy” or “economic” in

1992 debates.

*

22

Number of times Bush

used those words in

same debates.

*

10

Number of times Perot

used those words.

*

(1) numbers based on Gallup national polls just before and after debates

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Playing Politics

While national polls suggest a neck-and-neck contest, Democrat Al Gore has opened a substantial lead in the race to capture the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House. Since Labor Day, Gore has gained the upper hand over Republican George W. Bush in several key states, including Illinois, Michigan, Missouri and Pennsylvania. But public sentiments have proved volatile and neither candidate can rest comfortably. Florida, which is central to Bush’ White House hopes, remains the big tossup state.