The Campaign Fault Line

If history is any guide, many of those watching tonight’s first debate between Al Gore and George W. Bush will pay most attention to the candidates’ personal qualities: their command of the issues, their steadiness under pressure, even their body language and tone of voice.

But the debate is also likely to illuminate, to a greater degree than any other event so far, the stark differences between the two men on a wide range of domestic and foreign policies.

In some ways, the extent of their disagreement is surprising. When the campaign began, some analysts worried that a race between “compassionate conservative” Republican Bush and “New Democrat” Gore would produce a pileup in the center devoid of sharp distinctions.

In fact, though they will probably do their best to hide it tonight, the two men do share some important common assumptions, particularly on domestic issues. Both believe government programs should demand personal responsibility while trying to expand opportunity--which is why welfare reform and crime, such flash points in past presidential campaigns, are unlikely to be mentioned much in the debate. Both believe grass-roots groups, such as religiously based charities, should be given a greater role in delivering social services. Both support charter schools as a way to increase competitive pressure on public schools. And each wants Washington to reward or penalize states based on whether they improve student performance.

But as their competition sharpens, the two men are increasingly dividing across an old fault line: the role of government in society. Most of Bush’s key proposals aim to shift money and power away from Washington. Most important, Bush would devote at least 60% of the anticipated federal operating budget surplus to a tax cut. He also would implement the most important changes in Social Security since its inception, diverting part of the payroll tax into individual accounts that workers could invest in the stock market for their own retirement. In all these ways and more, Bush argues that his proposals trust “the people” while Gore would enlarge “big government.”

It’s no surprise that Gore rejects this formulation. He argues that Bush’s agenda--whether the tax cut or his proposed changes in Social Security and Medicare--would benefit the rich and increase risk for the middle class. Like President Clinton, Gore has tried to formulate an agenda that accepts fiscal discipline but still advances an aggressive role for government in confronting entrenched social problems. So, on the one hand, Gore has proposed significantly more spending than Bush and a tax cut equal to only about one-quarter of the expected surplus. On the other hand, the vice president has also pledged to pay off the publicly held national debt by 2012--a promise Bush hasn’t matched. In effect, in the core fiscal debate, Gore has positioned himself at once to Bush’s left and right.

In the cross-fire of charges and countercharges, the details of these differences--or the candidates’ equally large disagreements on such social issues as abortion and gun control--may be somewhat obscured. But the larger point is still likely to emerge: Despite the significant overlap in their thinking on some questions, Bush and Gore offer the nation a choice of very different paths.

The graphic, right, is a quick comparison of some of their major issue differences.

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ISSUES

Where They Stand

As the candidates prepare for tonight’s debate, a look at their positions on key policy issues.

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ABORTION

AL GORE

Supports abortion rights, and in making judicial appointments would “protect a woman’s right to choose.”

GEORGE W. BUSH

Opposes abortion rights except in cases of rape or incest or when a woman’s life is endangered. Would nominate “strict constructionists to the Supreme Court,” taken by some to mean justices sympathetic to abortion restrictions.

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DEFENSE

AL GORE

Opposes unilateral nuclear arms cut. Would develop technology for limited missile defense while seeking Russia’s agreement to amend Antiballistic Missile treaty. Would increase defense spending by $100 billion over 10 years. Supports comprehensive test ban treaty.

GEORGE W. BUSH

Sees nuclear stockpile as excessive and favors cuts even if Russia does not match them. Would build robust missile defense system “to protect all 50 states and our friends and allies,” seeking Russia’s agreement to amend the ABM treaty but proceeding if necessary without such agreement. Spend $20 billion more for weapons research and development, $1 billion more a year for military pay raise, giving average soldier $750 more in first year. Opposes comprehensive test ban treaty.

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EDUCATION

AL GORE

Offers a $170-billion 10-year plan. Would give grants to states to create “universal access” to preschool, $5,000 raises for good teachers in poor and rural areas, $5,000 more for “master teachers,” tougher standards for teachers. $8 billion in 10 years to recruit more teachers. Tax breaks for college savings and expenses, after-school care, $8 billion in school construction. Require all states to improve student performance or lose federal funds. Close schools that fail to meet standards for two years and reopen them under new leadership. More charter schools. Opposes vouchers for private schools. Supports voluntary national tests in reading and math.

GEORGE W. BUSH

Offers a $47-billion 10-year plan. In first five years, $5 billion more for literacy, $8 billion more for college scholarships and grants, $300-million fund (rising to $500 million) to reward states that improve pupil achievement based on increased student assessments. 5% cut in education money to states where performance lags. Would let families save, tax-free, $5,000 per year per student for education expenses at all ages. Would give more spending flexibility to states that test all students in reading and math every year from third through eighth grade. More charter schools. Would allow federal tax dollars to help parents send children to private schools when public schools in poor areas fail to meet standards for three years.

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ENVIRONMENT/ENERGY

AL GORE

$150-billion trust fund over 10 years for cleaner energy and environment, including $2,000 tax credits for buying new energy-efficient homes, $1,000 credits to make existing homes more energy efficient, tax credits for buying cleaner vehicles, aid for cleaner mass transit and $68 billion in incentives for cleaner power plants. Apart from fund, would spend $2 billion over 10 years to set aside more parkland. No drilling in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. Negotiated Kyoto accord on global warming, but ratification effort has lagged.

GEORGE W. BUSH

Increase domestic oil production and exploration, including in the Alaska refuge. Increase reliance on natural gas. Solar energy tax breaks. Halve capital gains taxes when landowner sells property for conservation. $50 million in matching grants with states for landowners to restore habitat or protect rare species while farming or ranching. Spend $5 billion over five years on park maintenance. Opposes unilateral extension of federal control over forests, seashores and monument properties. Opposes ratification of Kyoto agreement.

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GUN CONTROL

AL GORE

Mandatory photo ID licenses for future handgun buyers. Require manufacturers and federally licensed sellers to report gun sales to state authorities. Ban “Saturday night specials.” Mandate background checks at gun shows and require child-safety locks.

GEORGE W. BUSH

Raise age for handgun possession to 21. Background checks at gun shows if they are instant. Would sign a bill requiring child-safety locks to be sold with guns. Says existing gun laws have not been adequately enforced.

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HEALTH CARE

AL GORE

Expand federal-state health plan for children, to enroll more children and allow parents to be covered too. Offer coverage to people whose incomes now are too high to qualify. Tax credit for uninsured people who purchase individual health policies. Add prescription drug plan to Medicare to give free complete coverage to elderly poor and cost-sharing benefit to others, with no one in plan paying more than $4,000 a year for drugs. Double spending on cancer research over 5 years. Retain existing Medicare structure, but give private insurers more freedom to compete for customers.

GEORGE W. BUSH

Tax credit of up to $2,000 per family to help low-income working Americans buy health insurance. Expand tax-free medical savings accounts that can be used to pay for health expenses. Add 1,300 rural health care centers. Cover prescription drugs for the elderly poor, subsidize choice in drug plans for others. Proposes a “medical moonshot” to increase federal investment in medical research by $67 billion over 10 years. Transform Medicare into system where government provides seniors a fixed sum of money to purchase public or private insurance.

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RETIREMENT

AL GORE

Opposes diverting Social Security money to personal investment accounts but offers a tax credit to low-income and middle-income people to match their retirement investments. Value of credit varies according to income. $100 billion over 10 years to improve Social Security benefits for widows and working women. Has ruled out increasing the retirement age. Would use all of Social Security surplus for debt reduction, and would use savings on interest to pay future benefits.

GEORGE W. BUSH

Give workers option of staying entirely in Social Security system or investing a portion of their Social Security taxes in individual retirement accounts, taking a smaller payout from the program when they retire but supplementing their benefits with the private investments. Has not ruled out raising retirement age for younger workers as part of comprehensive reform. Has implied he would use about half of Social Security surplus for debt reduction, and half to fund individual accounts.

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TAXES

AL GORE

Selected tax relief, helping people pay for tuition, buy health insurance, save for retirement, pay for day care and more. $3,000 tax credit for people who need or provide long-term care in the home. Eliminate inheritance tax on farms and businesses worth up to $5 million, raising the tax-protected threshold from $2.6 million now. Raise taxes by $130 billion on some corporate transactions and tobacco. Raise standard deduction for married couples to ease marriage penalty for those who do not itemize deductions. Package priced at $500 billion over 10 years.

GEORGE W. BUSH

Cut all income tax rates, with lowest dropping to 10% and highest to 33%. Double child tax credit to $1,000. Charitable deductions could be taken by people who don’t itemize. Promises no increase in personal or corporate tax rates. Eliminate inheritance tax. Reduce the marriage penalty paid by many two-income couples by allowing a deduction of 10% of the lower-earning spouse’s salary, up to $3,000. Estimated cost through 2010: at least $1.3 trillion.

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Sources: Times staff, Associated Press