Rep. Sanchez Has Big Lead, Survey Finds

Despite the fireworks of an ill-fated Playboy mansion fund-raiser, voters are happier than ever with Rep. Loretta Sanchez, who is cruising with a commanding 21-point lead in her reelection bid in Orange County, a new poll reveals.

Those surveyed showed little hesitation to forgive and put aside the Playboy incident and Sanchez’s subsequent cancellation of an event with President Clinton, according to a poll by Baldassare Associates for The Times.

Sanchez is favored by 52%, compared with 31% for Republican challenger Gloria Matta Tuchman, a telephone poll of 500 likely voters conducted last week in the central county district shows. Democrats hold an 11-point lead among registered voters in the 46th District, 47% to 36% for the GOP, according to the latest figures.

More than half of those polled gave Sanchez high job performance ratings. Latino voters and Democrats were far and away the most loyal, saying they approve of the job she’s doing in Congress.

The rosy numbers come despite agreement across gender, age and ethnic lines that Sanchez erred in August by planning a fund-raiser--which she later moved--at the Playboy mansion during the Democratic National Convention in Los Angeles.

Forty-seven percent of those polled thought it was a bad idea for Sanchez to have planned a fund-raiser at the Playboy mansion. Only 11% thought it was a good idea. Forty-one percent said that issue made no difference to them, and 1% said they didn’t know.

People disapproved more of her decision last month to cancel a private fund-raiser with President Clinton because he couldn’t stay long enough to have dinner with the guests.

Fifty-two percent said she should not have canceled the fund-raiser. Twenty-four percent said she should have, and 24% didn’t know.

But when asked what they thought about the job Sanchez is doing in representing the district, 58% approved, 29% disapproved and 13% didn’t know.

“Voters see more good in what she’s done than bad, and they’re pleased with the positive image she’s brought to Latinos,” said Cheryl Katz of Baldassare Associates. “They’re willing to forgive her a couple of fumbles.”

It is Sanchez’s commitment to the district and “giving back to the community” that won over 18-year-old Jenni Ceja, who graduated in June from Middle College High School in Santa Ana. Sanchez is a good role model, she said in a follow-up interview, despite an uneasy feeling that “the stuff she’s been doing lately is a little weird.”

“I would tell her, ‘Watch what you do really closely,’ because what she does really reflects on all of us,” said Ceja, who works for a telecommunications company. “Think beyond the donors. Money comes and money goes, but the impression people have lasts forever.”

The fund-raising flaps made no difference to Robert Palacios of Santa Ana, another 18-year-old who says he will vote for Sanchez in his first election next month.

“She had her reasons,” he said. “Most people my age have thought that voting is a waste of time, but we’re thinking it’s better to get our voices heard. We’ve heard a lot of good things about her.”

The 46th Congressional District, which includes Santa Ana and parts of Anaheim, Garden Grove and the city of Orange, was targeted early in the campaign by state and national Republicans eager to topple Sanchez, who pulled off a stunning upset in 1996 by defeating entrenched conservative Republican Robert K. Dornan. She beat him again two years later when he tried to regain the seat.

Tuchman, who got 56% in the district in 1998 during an unsuccessful run for state schools chief, was seen as potentially competitive, especially in a district where only 30% of the voters are Latino.

Sanchez is favored by Latino voters by nearly 5 to 1 over Tuchman, a Santa Ana teacher. Latinos voters in the district. But among all likely voters, 54% of those polled had no opinion of Tuchman, indicating little traction from her 1998 race.

“Tuchman hasn’t made much of a mark in this race; she hasn’t really established herself,” Katz said.

The Tuchman campaign said other polls show the race is “much closer” and said she will continue aggressively campaigning until Nov. 7.

“We have a strong grass-roots organization and we’ve walked over 130 precincts” out of 256 in the district, campaign manager Jarryd Gonzales said.

Brent Tuominen, 34, a Democrat from Orange, said he is voting for Tuchman because Sanchez is too liberal for his tastes.

“I like Tuchman’s positions on schools much better; she’s opposed to bilingual education and she’s in favor of vouchers,” the father of four said. “My heart is with the Democratic Party; I just don’t like the solutions they come up with.”

He said the fund-raising dust-up made “not a particle of difference” in his assessment of Sanchez.

“I just thought it was silly,” he said.

Though the Tuchman camp had hoped for an infusion of GOP money, Sanchez has lapped her several times in terms of fund-raising. By September, the incumbent had $1.5 million--a 10-to-1 edge in campaign money.

Sanchez prevailed in the poll because she has delivered for her working-class district, her spokeswoman said. For example, she has visited every public school in the district.

“She works really hard. She comes home every weekend, and that’s not lost on anybody,” said Sanchez spokeswoman Sara Anderson.

Rather than being damaged by her political foibles, Sanchez’s image has climbed steadily since 1997, climbing 14 percentage points to 53% of those polled with a favorable impression today. Thirty percent had a favorable opinion of Tuchman. Thirty-three percent had an unfavorable opinion of Sanchez and 16% felt that way about Tuchman.

Seven in 10 Latinos have a favorable impression of Sanchez, and 68% of Latinos say she has helped their image.

Overall, the loyalty from Latinos, a strong voting bloc for Democrats, offsets a more divided sentiment about Sanchez among voters in other ethnic groups, Katz said.

The poll was conducted in English and Spanish on Oct. 9-11. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%, with a confidence level of 95%. That means the results are within 4.5 percentage points of what they would be if all likely voters in the 46th District were interviewed. For subgroups, such as gender or party, the margin of error is larger.