Summer Slump

The first movie summer of the century is notable for one thing, and one thing only: For the first time in four years, box-office totals did not exceed the previous summer’s.

Last year set the record both for grosses and attendance, sparked by a couple of major surprises, “The Sixth Sense” and “The Blair Witch Project,” as well as the expected “Star Wars” blockbuster, “Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace.” But this year’s crop, in large part, seemed like retreads or echoes of other movies, even in the cases where the films were well-executed. Call it the summer of deja vu.

As with the longest bull market in history on Wall Street, this summer’s movie rally was showing signs of wear and tear. Tracking the 18-week period between May 5 and Labor Day, Exhibitor Relations estimates that the total summer gross was about $3.125 billion, compared with $3.279 billion last year. That’s only about 5% less. But in terms of admissions, it’s closer to 8% down from 1999’s record (595 million admissions compared to 645 million). The average nationwide ticket price rose 17 cents to $5.25.

The final weekend of the season again trailed figures for the same period a year ago, a familiar pattern throughout the summer. The top movie in the country is one of the summer’s genuine sleepers, “Bring It On.” The low-budget cheerleading comedy grossed an estimated $14.5 million in its second weekend, for a cheerful 11-day total of $37 million.

As expected, Labor Day movie audiences largely played catch-up with long-running summer movies they hadn’t seen: the Jennifer Lopez thriller “The Cell” (an estimated $9.1 million), Clint Eastwood’s “Space Cowboys” ($8.3 million), “The Art of War” ($7.5 million) and “What Lies Beneath” ($6.2 million).

Exhibitor Relations estimates that the top 12 films grossed approximately $76.3 million for the four-day period, about 16% less than last year, when “The Sixth Sense” was ruling the box office.

Overall, there were too few summer surprises this year compared to recent summers that brought us “There’s Something About Mary,” “Saving Private Ryan,” “Runaway Bride” and “The Truman Show.” Interestingly, all those movies brought out older movie patrons, those most resistant to being separated from the cable box or VCR. That audience is precisely the one that can boost average attendance, but this summer gave it few reasons to find a baby-sitter and brave the traffic.

Even discounting outright sequels like “M:I-2” and “Nutty Professor II,” many of the top summer titles recalled other movies, which in part explained why many of them failed to do the kind of repeat or word-of-mouth business that turns a hit into a genuine blockbuster:

* “The Perfect Storm” was to water what “Twister” and “Deep Impact” had been to dry land.

* “X-Men” folded in elements of the “Batman” series and “The Matrix.”

* The technically daring “Dinosaur” was hampered by a plot that was painfully similar to other Disney movies as far back as “Bambi.”

* “Big Momma’s House” was a kissing cousin to “Mrs. Doubtfire” and “Nutty Professor.”

* “Me, Myself & Irene” tried to blend elements from “There’s Something About Mary” and several Jim Carrey slapstick farces.

* “Gone in 60 Seconds” felt like a continuation of nonstop Nicolas Cage action fare like “The Rock” and “Con Air.”

* “Scary Movie” revived the “Airplane” spoof genre, referencing recent hits such as “Scream” and “Blair Witch.”

* “What Lies Beneath” was woman-in-jeopardy-in-a-haunted-house (“The Haunting,” “Kiss the Girls”).

* “The Patriot” couldn’t completely erase the memory of “Braveheart.”

* And even “Space Cowboys” echoed everything from “Apollo 13” to “Armageddon.”

And those were the hits.

There were exceptions, of course. “Gladiator” and “Chicken Run” defied easy categorization and were certainly different than other films in recent memory, which in part explains why both exceeded expectations. And, to a lesser extent, “Shanghai Noon” brought genuine laughs back to the comedy-western much more successfully than last year’s leaden “Wild Wild West,” the memory of which may have been still too fresh in audiences’ minds for “Shanghai” to do better than it did (about $57 million).

It’s not that audiences turned a cold shoulder to the movies. Eleven summer releases topped $100 million (and “Gone in 60 Seconds” will be there shortly). But the hits just weren’t as big as in the summer of ’99. Three films surpassed $200 million last year (“Phantom Menace,” “The Sixth Sense,” the “Austin Powers” sequel), compared with only one this year, “M:I-2.” While audiences eagerly showed up the first weekend for the Tom Cruise hit, as well as “X-Men,” “The Klumps,” “The Perfect Storm” and “Scary Movie”--giving these films debuts of $40 million and above--second-week drop-offs in some cases were precipitous, indicating a sharp decline in interest or mediocre word of mouth.

Family Fare Largely Disappoints

As expected, the best performers largely fell into the action genre (“M:I-2,” “Perfect Storm”), with comedy a close second (“Nutty II,” “Big Momma,” “Scary Movie”). Family-oriented movies, though, were largely disappointments or outright disasters--”The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle,” the wide release of “Fantasia/2000,” “Pokemon 2000” and “Titan A.E.” Only “Dinosaur” and “Chicken Run” worked $100-million magic with that audience.

There are few spillover hits from the season; only “Bring It On” will play into early fall, whereas “The Sixth Sense” last year took in an additional $100 million after Labor Day. Moreover, the effect on September box office of the televised Olympic Games in Australia could depress receipts even further.

Some independent companies like New Line and USA Films are taking advantage of the lull in major studio releases with films like “Turn It Up,” “Way of the Gun” and “Nurse Betty,” which along with Universal’s “The Watcher” make their debuts on Friday. But box-office totals are in need of a true breakout fall hit if 2000 is to keep up with the record 1999. The year-to-date total is $5.486 billion, only about $30 million ahead of last year (though, again, admissions are down).

One hope could be the sequel to “Blair Witch.” It opens around Halloween and is expected to have a good start. Otherwise, there are few guaranteed hits between now and the year-end pileup of high-profile releases.

On paper, at least, summer 2001 looks more promising with a few original-sounding titles: an epic war movie (“Pearl Harbor”); a Spielberg sci-fi thriller (“A.I.”); a remake of “Planet of the Apes” under the aegis of Tim Burton, as well as a reworking of the futuristic thriller “Rollerball”; the animated “Shrek,” with the voices of Mike Myers and Eddie Murphy; an Adam Sandler comedy, “The Johnson Five”; and, of course, there’ll be the usual spate of sequels, including “Jurassic Park 3,” “Rush Hour 2,” “Doctor Dolittle 2” and “The Mummy Returns.”

Deja vu all over again.

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Summer’s Even Dozen

Box-office estimates for the top 12 summer movies through Labor Day:

“M:I-2”: $213 million

“Gladiator”: $183 million

“The Perfect Storm”: $178 million

“X-Men”: $153 million

“Scary Movie”: $150 million

“What Lies Beneath”: $137.5 million

“Dinosaur”: $134 million

“Big Momma’s House”: $116 million

“The Klumps”: $115 million

“The Patriot”: $111 million

“Chicken Run”: $104 million

“Gone in 60 Seconds”: $99 million

Source: Exhibitor Relations