Hussein Is Itching for a Fight, U.S. Officials Say

In what appears to be escalating brinkmanship, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has been orchestrating a series of provocative acts designed to lure the United States into a military response and focus world debate on U.S. policy toward Iraq, Clinton administration officials say.

Over the past six weeks, Baghdad has threatened the Kurdish regions in northern Iraq, called for the overthrow of monarchies in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, banned visits by humanitarian aid workers and a new team of U.N. weapons inspectors, and flown an Iraqi warplane across a Western-imposed “no-fly” zone into Saudi airspace.

On Tuesday, Hussein placed his armed forces on high alert, sending yet another signal that he might be planning some kind of action that would elicit a military response, U.S. officials say.

Administration officials believe that Hussein is attempting to exploit the U.S. presidential election to drive a wedge between Washington and the rest of the world community over the harsh sanctions imposed after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. The United States is the staunchest supporter of the sanctions, which restrict Iraq’s ability to buy or sell any goods not approved by the United Nations. But support has waned considerably among other key nations, including France, China and Russia, three of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.

“This is the time of maximum possible exposure because it’s an election year. The United States will be nervous about reacting, and he [Hussein] can play more brinkmanship than at any other time,” said Henri Barkey, chairman of Lehigh University’s International Relations Department and until recently the Iraq analyst on the State Department’s policy planning staff.

The slippage of support for U.S.-championed restrictions was evident Friday when a French charter flight carrying about 60 athletes, doctors and artists landed in Baghdad after ignoring a U.N. request to wait for clearance. The United States protested that France had violated the U.N. embargo.

Iraq’s own provocations have set off alarm bells because of their magnitude and pace.

Last month, for example, Hussein and his two sons, who occupy positions of power in the regime, made what a senior administration official described as “outrageous” verbal attacks calling for revolutions in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

And by refusing to cooperate with new U.N. weapons inspectors, Baghdad has thrown U.S. and U.N. officials into a policy abyss--unable to dismantle Iraq’s old weapons of mass destruction much less prevent the development of new ones.

“He’s doing all kinds of nefarious things,” said a senior U.S. official who works on Iraq policy. “He’s provoking and pressing the boundaries to see what he can get away with.”

The official, like others interviewed for this report, requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the administration’s Iraq policy and U.S. diplomatic relations with other nations.

This is not the first time that Iraq has engaged in provocative behavior shortly before a U.S. presidential election: During the 1996 campaign, Hussein’s forces invaded Kurdish enclaves in northern Iraq. It was the boldest military action since Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, and a blatant violation of the 1991 U.N. cease-fire agreement that ended Iraq’s occupation of the tiny, oil-rich state.

So far, Hussein’s latest efforts have not had the intended effect. On Sept. 4, an Iraqi warplane crossed the southern “no-fly” zone policed by U.S. and British aircraft and entered Saudi airspace. Administration officials believe that was a deliberate effort to trigger a confrontation with the U.S. just as world leaders were gathering in New York to participate in the U.N. Millennium Summit.

But the administration opted “not to fall into Saddam’s trap” and made no effort to respond, according to a senior administration official.

Some experts have wondered whether Hussein might try to inflict more pain on the U.S. by curtailing Iraqi oil production and forcing prices even higher in the midst of a global energy scare.

Hussein “is playing with the oil market,” said Barkey, the former State Department analyst.

“Even though OPEC promised to increase production to stabilize prices, prices have gone up, in part due to Iraq’s saber-rattling on oil,” he said. “It’s made the market very nervous, as there’s no margin of error when every drop now produced is being consumed. So by making threats, he’s indirectly signaling that he doesn’t care if he doesn’t export for a while.”

But U.S. officials believe that Hussein is unlikely to significantly reduce Iraq’s oil production because the financial cost to his regime would be too high. Iraq’s economy was on the verge of collapse in 1996 when Hussein was forced to end his boycott of the U.N. oil-for-food program that allowed his nation to sell oil on the world market for the first time since the Persian Gulf War ended. Under the program, the profits were channeled through the United Nations to improve conditions for the people of Iraq.

At current prices, Iraq is expected to sell up to $20 billion worth of oil this year from production of about 2.4 million barrels a day. U.S. officials are confident that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could offset any Iraqi supply reduction because they already have an excess production capability of 2 million barrels a day.

Yet even though cutting off oil production would hurt Iraq more than anyone else, Hussein’s strategy over the years has often defied understanding in the West, U.S. officials acknowledge. At one time, Washington was convinced that Iraq would invade neither Kuwait nor its own Kurdish territory.

Baghdad claimed earlier this week that it might have to reduce oil exports because Washington had delayed approval for Iraq to buy spare parts to keep its oil industry running. U.S. officials countered Friday that Iraq had sought approval to buy $371 million worth of production-related equipment and that approval was delayed for about 15% of that amount because more specifics were needed to ensure it could not also be used to develop arms.