U.S. Calls On Milosevic to Concede Election Loss

With Slobodan Milosevic refusing to concede defeat in Yugoslavia’s presidential election, the United States and its European allies Monday confronted the daunting challenge of finding a way to increase pressure on the regime in Belgrade to accede to the popular will.

The United States took the lead in calling on Milosevic to accept his apparent loss, which remained uncertain after Yugoslavia’s Federal Electoral Commission abruptly suspended operations early Monday.

Condemning “massive irregularities” and “reports of fraud of just about every size, shape and color,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica was on his way to a “convincing victory” against Milosevic.

“Things have changed in Yugoslavia,” Boucher said. “The Yugoslav people have had a chance to stand up and say what they want. There’s been a massive voter turnout. No one can deny their voices at this point. They have overwhelmingly chosen the path of democracy and integration into Europe.”

Although the ability of other governments to influence the course of events in Yugoslavia is limited, the international community has a number of potential levers it can pull, according to U.S. officials and non-government experts.

In the somewhat unlikely event that Kostunica is able to assume the presidency, America and its allies have a clear-cut course of action: They will take steps to ease economic sanctions against Yugoslavia and begin the process of normalizing relations with Belgrade.

Washington also has a plan if Milosevic’s regime insists that neither side won more than 50% of Sunday’s vote and holds a runoff election Oct. 8. Rather than considering a boycott, the U.S. will encourage the opposition to run again--and harder--by organizing demonstrations and energizing voters. The objective would be an even more convincing win the second time around, officials said, adding that a boycott would only play into Milosevic’s hands.

Already Monday, the House of Representatives passed a bill authorizing financial aid for opposition groups in Serbia, the larger of the two Yugoslav republics. The bill authorizes $500 million to help finance democratic forces in Serbia and Montenegro, its junior partner, including $50 million to fund the activities of pro-democracy and dissident groups.

Still, that leaves open the more difficult issue of what steps to take if Milosevic succeeds in hijacking the electoral process, either now or after a runoff. That’s the scenario U.S. officials fear is most likely, because they believe that Milosevic will not easily cede control.

On the evening before the vote, Milosevic summoned the diplomatic corps in Belgrade--the capital of Yugoslavia and Serbia--to complain that “international factors” were manipulating the presidential election and implied that he might invalidate the results, U.S. officials said.

On Monday, U.S. officials said they had reason to believe that the Yugoslav leader was “panicked” and his inner circle “in disarray.”

When aggression against Bosnia-Herzegovina or Kosovo, a province of Serbia, was the issue facing the international community, the options were fairly obvious. But the use of force would be neither feasible nor practical in this case.

The choices under consideration this time are more subtle, more time-consuming and less certain to win widespread backing. Russia, especially, has advocated free and fair elections in Yugoslavia but is also Belgrade’s most important ally.

So far, key European allies have joined the United States in criticizing Milosevic’s response to the vote.

British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook urged Milosevic to step aside.

“Be honest with your people. Don’t cheat them. Get out of the way and let Serbia get out of the prison into which you have turned it,” Cook said Monday in remarks at a Labor Party conference.

The European Union warned that any effort by Milosevic to claim victory “would clearly be a sham,” and Italian Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini threatened “devastating consequences” if Milosevic negates the election results.

Because Moscow’s role is so pivotal, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has engaged in a round of intense telephone diplomacy with Russian Foreign Minister Igor S. Ivanov, according to State Department officials.

After discussing the election Monday with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said the two leaders had agreed that the opposition had won. But Washington fears that Putin will not necessarily support efforts to help the apparent winners take office.

In discussing the outside world’s response, U.S. officials acknowledged that their options are limited.

“We’re not the ones who will have to get rid of Milosevic,” said one well-placed U.S. official who, like others interviewed for this report, requested anonymity to avoid jeopardizing sensitive diplomatic relationships.

Still, there are a number of steps the outside world can take to increase pressure on Milosevic’s regime to accept the will of the Yugoslav people, according to regional specialists and former U.S. officials.

One of the two most immediate and important responses would be to cut off the Yugoslav government, both diplomatically and commercially, so that everything from its U.N. delegation to its trade and investment deals would be neither recognized nor honored.

“We could do all that’s possible with the rest of the world to say the government is unacceptable, to say Milosevic is history and to say no one will deal with him,” said Morton Abramowitz, former head of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, founder of the International Crisis Group and an expert on the Balkans. “Whether we can get the Russians on board is the big question.”

The second key response would be to announce that the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies would reserve the right to come to the assistance of Montenegro if Serbia moved against it. U.S. and European officials fear that Milosevic might launch some kind of aggression against Montenegro in an effort to rally Serbian nationalism behind him again.

Less than 25% of Montenegro’s electorate turned out for Sunday’s vote, a possible signal that its people want either a new arrangement with Serbia or independence.

Daniel Serwer, a former U.S. special envoy for Bosnia and now director of the Balkans Initiative at the U.S. Institute of Peace, outlined other options available to America and its allies if Milosevic clings to power:

* Reconsidering independence for Kosovo and Montenegro.

* Recognizing the opposition if it opts to form a separate government at home or in exile.

* Increasing the U.S. military presence in the Adriatic.

* Engaging NATO in formal discussions of an allied response.

* Urging China and Russia to curtail financial credits to Milosevic.

* Supporting International Monetary Fund and World Bank assistance to Montenegro.

* Opening a U.S. diplomatic office in Montenegro’s capital, not as a consulate under the auspices of the U.S. Embassy in Belgrade but as an autonomous authority.

“A great deal now depends on international reaction and U.S. leadership in crafting a response,” Serwer said. “There’s every indication that Milosevic now has the loyalty of the army and police, which have both demonstrated their willingness to use violence at critical points. So we have to be creative in the way we respond but also forceful if necessary.”