Studio Plan: Make Hay While the Sun Shines

Some summer movie seasons are front-loaded, with all the big-ticket movies debuting before Memorial Day. Some are back-loaded to take advantage of the period from late June through August, when kids are out of school and adults are on vacation. This year it’s both.

Films such as “The Mummy Returns” and “Pearl Harbor” will kick off the lucrative season in May. In July and early August, such high-profile films as Tim Burton’s remake of “Planet of the Apes,” “America’s Sweethearts,” starring Julia Roberts, and the action comedy sequel “Rush Hour 2” arrive. And by late summer, new films will be arriving in threes and fours almost every weekend through Labor Day.

Will the competition be punishing? “It all depends on how good the films are,” says Marc Shmuger, senior marketing executive at Universal Pictures, who has three major sequels due (“The Mummy Returns,” “Jurassic Park 3”--or “JP3,” as he calls it--and “American Pie 2”). And though that sounds like a pat answer, the truth is that audiences will expand and contract in proportion to their satisfaction level.

The summer season for movies starts at the beginning of May, coinciding with the May 1 expiration of the Writers Guild of America contract. Two months later, the Screen Actors Guild could walk out. Because all of the summer movies--and many of the films for the rest of the year--are completed, audiences shouldn’t notice an impact. Ironically, in fact, the potential strike year is shaping up as a record-breaking year at the box office.

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At least on paper, the expectations for summer 2001 are huge, with a total expected to surpass last year’s $2.95 billion, according to Exhibitor Relations, and possibly exceed that of summer 1999, when a record $3.13 billion was spent on tickets.

But unlike last year, when each blockbuster title usually got a clear berth on its opening weekend, the heat is so intense this year only two films have the advantage of a solo launch: Disney’s “Pearl Harbor” (May 25) and 20th Century Fox’s “Planet of the Apes” (July 27).

“That’s the ultimate compliment, being the only movie that opens on a summer weekend,” says Jeff Blake, Sony Pictures marketing and distribution head.

However, as has been proved in past summers, debuting on the same date as an expected blockbuster need not be a disadvantage. Two years ago Roberts’ romantic comedy “Notting Hill” opened on Memorial Day weekend against the mega-hit “Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace” and benefited from spillover business and female appeal against the effects-laden hardware movie.

This year “The Mummy Returns,” Sony’s “A Knight’s Tale” and the computer-animated “Shrek” from DreamWorks will hit theaters before Memorial Day, hoping to share in the spoils on one of the busiest box-office weekends of the year.

“Movie lines create more movie lines,” says Chuck Viane, senior distribution executive at Disney. Or at least that’s his hope.

Usually when two or more films open on the same weekend, the studios take care that they appeal to different demographics. That theory has also fallen by the wayside this summer. Martin Lawrence’s MGM comedy “What’s the Worst That Could Happen?” and Sony’s “Animal,” starring Rob Schneider, which are expected to compete for the young male comedy audience, are to debut on the same day (June 1), as is the musical extravaganza “Moulin Rouge” from Fox, which has its nationwide release then.

MGM distribution president Larry Gleason thinks the Lawrence comedy may have an edge, because it seems to appeal to both younger and older audiences and is deliberately timed to open on the same weekend as the comic hit from last summer, “Big Momma’s House.” (The studios like that kind of symmetry.) “Animal” also has potential, given that Schneider’s last starring role, “Deuce Bigalow,” was a surprise hit.

Disney had planned to roll out its animated “Atlantis” in mid-June against Paramount’s “Tomb Raider,” based on the video game and starring Angelina Jolie. Though the former is ostensibly a family film, the two will share the hefty teen demographic. At the last minute, Disney blinked and has moved the “Atlantis” opening to June 8.

“It’s a great place to get ourselves established and play through the end of the summer,” says Viane.

Before the expansion of movie theaters, head-to-head competition used to be much more worrisome to the major studios. A hit film could not only overshadow a lesser title but could also doom it to a shorter stay in theaters. Now there are enough theaters for a given movie to stay in the game a little longer, even if it doesn’t debut at No. 1. Recent films such as “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and “Traffic” never made it to the top of the box-office chart, yet each will end up grossing more than $120 million.

During the last holiday season, there was an upsurge in attendance because of a number of audience-pleasing movies: “Cast Away,” “What Women Want,” “How the Grinch Stole Christmas” and, later, “Crouching Tiger” and “Traffic.” Ticket sales boomed, expanding beyond even the most optimistic expectations.

Because many of the bigger films this summer will be in 3,000 or more locations and on 4,000 or more screens, opening weekend grosses can exceed $50 million. But Warner Bros. distribution head Dan Fellman says that even when a big-budget sequel like “Jurassic Park 3” or “Doctor Dolittle 2” outdistances the other films opening the same weekend (because of built-in name recognition, sequels tend to debut very strongly), they don’t necessarily rout other films.

“‘If a particular movie opens to $50 million or $60 million, there’s still plenty of business left over, since each week in summer is a $200-million week,” Fellman notes. “There’s plenty of room for other pictures.”

The competitive atmosphere this summer may even be a plus, spurring attendance to greater heights, says Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations, which tracks box-office returns. “Last summer there was no momentum. The season started huge with [‘Mission: Impossible 2’], but there weren’t enough big movies to carry that forward.” Admissions and box-office totals eventually declined, and the post-Fourth-of-July period, in particular, was a wet firecracker.

This summer, there are many predictable performers (at least initially), including “Pearl Harbor,” “Planet of the Apes,” “The Mummy Returns,” “Dolittle 2” and Steven Spielberg’s “A.I.” Some of the less highly touted films could also benefit from an upsurge in business. The mainstream commercial slant of most movies this summer--there isn’t anything remotely dramatic like “Saving Private Ryan” or even “The Truman Show” in the bunch until late in the season--could open the door to independents.

Four MGM Films

Scheduled in August

Many of the surprise hits might surface in the second half of the season because tent-pole movies--industry-speak for high-profile films or sequels to blockbusters--are heavily booked into the early part of the summer, though the pace continues throughout the season.

“The toughest part about the early part of the summer is where to put your film,” says Jerry Rich, MGM marketing head, who has slotted four of the studio’s six summer releases in August: the remake of the action film “Rollerball,” the romantic drama “Original Sin,” the horror film “Jeepers, Creepers” and the offbeat comedy “Ghostworld.”

Like-minded executives are crowding the month with four or five new national releases every weekend, unusually heavy for the dog days of August, though it’s expected that some of the more vulnerable titles will eventually drop out or be moved to safer berths at a less frantic time of year.

There’s still plenty of business to be done in the four or five weeks preceding Labor Day, Rich contends. And fresh films hitting theaters through the end of September this year should help maintain the season’s momentum well after the vacation season.

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Summer Battlegrounds

Release dates for big summer movies are tentative.

* May 4: “The Mummy Returns”

* May 11: “A Knight’s Tale,” “Trumpet of the Swan”

* May 18: “Angel Eyes,” “Moulin Rouge,” (L.A., N.Y.) “Shrek”

* May 25: “Pearl Harbor”

* June 1: “What’s the Worst That Could Happen?” “Animal,” “Moulin Rouge” (national)

* June 8: “Atlantis,” “Evolution,” “Swordfish”

* June 15: “Tomb Raider”

* June 22: “The Fast and the Furious,” “Doctor Dolittle 2”

* June 29: “A.I.,” “Baby Boy”

* July 4: “Cats & Dogs,” “Kiss the Dragon,” “Scary Movie 2”

* July 13: “Final Fantasy,” “The Score,” “Legally Blonde,”

“America’s Sweethearts”

* July 20: “Crazy/Beautiful,” “Jurassic Park 3”

* July 27: “Planet of the Apes,” “Affair of the Necklace”

* Aug. 3: “The Princess Diaries,” “Rush Hour 2,” “Original Sin,” “Ghostworld,” (limited)

* Aug. 10: “Osmosis Jones,” “Curse of the Jade Scorpion,”

“American Pie 2,” “Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back”

* Aug. 17: “Captain Corelli’s Mandolin,” “American Outlaws,”

“Rollerball”

* Aug. 24: “Ghosts of Mars,” “Summer Catch,” “Soul Survivors”

* Aug. 31: “Jeepers Creepers,” “All that Glitters”

SOURCE: Exhibitor Relations Co.