For Now, Yesterday Is Here to Stay

By ROBERT HILBURN

April 22, 2001 12 AM PT

Robert Hilburn, The Times' pop music critic, can be reached at robert.hilburn@latimes.com

What does it tell us about pop music when the nation’s top record executives have more faith in a band that has been defunct for 30 years than almost any act on their labels?

Things have changed-big time.

That executives would have the Beatles on their mind is understandable following the spectacular success of the group’s “1” anthology last year. But the idea that the group is likely to sell more records over the next few years than most current hotshots is a radical notion-and not a comforting one to the record industry.

The Beatles were selling tons of reissues in 1985 when Calendar first polled execs to determine pop’s hottest properties, but the label heads were too bullish on contemporary acts to tie their fortunes to the past.

The hot acts at the time-Bruce Springsteen, Prince and Michael Jackson-were selling so many millions that it was inconceivable that even the Beatles could match their commercial firepower during the next few years.

Industry titans were equally forward-looking in 1993 and 1995 when two more Calendar polls found U2, Pearl Jam and R.E.M. to be the most prized properties. The assumption again was those stars were going to be turning out hits for years.

No longer.

The uncertainty about today’s artists isn’t so much a reflection of waning artistry as it is of changing marketing conditions and buying habits.

Blaming the rapid turnover of pop stars in recent years on everything from Internet technology and media overexposure to declining fan loyalty, executives worry about artists being unable to deliver more than one or two hit albums before fans turn their attention elsewhere.

“It’s a sad time,” said one label head, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid offending his artists. “Nobody has real shelf-life anymore. If you get past two hit albums, three at the outside, it doesn’t matter how much integrity or credibility you have built up, your sales are going to fall.”

Adds a rival executive, “I guarantee you that most of today’s hit-makers won’t be anywhere near the Top 10 five years from now. Would I rather take a chance on the Beatles repackages than most of today’s acts? You bet.”

The latest Calendar survey supports this theory of diminishing returns.

Only two acts from the last Calendar Top 20 survey, in 1995, are on the latest short list of today’s bankable players: U2 and Dr. Dre.

Dethroned: Pearl Jam, R.E.M., Whitney Houston, Mariah Carey, Boyz II Men, Nine Inch Nails, Green Day, Seal, George Michael and the Cranberries.

And the news isn’t good for acts hoping for a comeback-such as Jackson and Garth Brooks. Referring to Jackson and his image problems, one executive noted, “That’s one of the most difficult calls in the record business. It’s like predicting where the bottom of the Nasdaq will be.”

The new kings of pop, according to the Calendar panel: Eminem and Dr. Dre, who finished one-two in the balloting.

They are the only ones who seem to some of the smartest minds in the industry safer bets than the Beatles, who finished third.

Who’s the hottest property in the record business?

It seems like an easy question, but the complexity was apparent in interviews over the last two weeks with 22 of the most powerful executives in the record business.

For the survey, Calendar asked the executives to pretend that all recording contracts were voided and that they could have their pick of any 10 acts. They were asked to name in order the ones they think will sell the most records over the next seven years, the life of a standard contract. To encourage candor, we agreed not to reveal who voted for whom-or identify who said what about the various artists. In tallying votes, 10 points were given for each first-place mention, nine for every second and so forth.

Each panelist was given a ballot with 75 current best-sellers. The Beatles were put on the list as a sort of lighthearted afterthought, acknowledging the success of “1,” which has sold more than 7 million copies since November. But the more panelists talked about the problems facing the industry-including the factors that cause such limited shelf-life of artists-the less of a joke it seemed to pick the Beatles. Ten panelists eventually named the Beatles to their Top 10 lists, enough for 67 points.

The survey winner, rapper Eminem, captured 90 points by being named on 12 of the 22 ballots. Eminem, who has sold more than 12 million albums in two years in the U.S. alone, finished first on six ballots. Dr. Dre received 73 points.

Besides the anxiety over the increasingly short shelf-life of high-profile artists, the most revealing aspect of the poll was the growing respect for rap music. Long considered as much of a passing trend as today’s boy-band genre, rap landed only one artist (Dr. Dre) in Calendar’s Top 20 list in 1995.

Executives placed six rap-related acts on the new list. Joining Eminem and Dr. Dre: rap-rockers Limp Bizkit and Kid Rock, rap-R&B; stylist Lauryn Hill (with the Fugees) and hard-core rapper DMX.

EMINEM

Not everyone is sold on Eminem. One executive worries that Eminem’s appeal is tied too closely to his shock value and that someone else can come along to “out-Eminem Eminem.”

Cautions another, “I believe in his talent, but I wonder about his personal life . . . whether he’s stable enough to withstand all this attention. That would keep me from putting my company’s future in his hands.”

Most, however, are solidly in his corner.

“Eminem’s a real artist and he has tapped into teen angst better than anybody,” said one panelist. “He has become the embodiment of what the Beastie Boys represented in the beginning, yet with all the power of the Rolling Stones and those things that attracted us to rock in the first place.”

Added another: “He’s arguably the most profound lyricist I’ve heard. ‘Stan’ is a brilliant record. My feeling is his fan base will grow with him. People are interested in knowing what he’s going to think three years from now and five years from now. He doesn’t just have a hit, but a point of view that is interesting and unique.”

DR. DRE

One panelist said flatly that Dre, who won a Grammy in February for producer of the year, may be the greatest talent in the music business right now. “Hip-hop is the most dynamic sound in pop, and he’s the king of hip-hop.”

Sixty-two artists-from classical star Andrea Bocelli to critical favorite Radiohead-received at least one vote, but only 26 picked up as many as three. (About Bocelli, the panelist noted, “He’s someone who is immune to the short shelf-life virus because he has a genre to himself.”)

Here are some sample comments about the acts that finished in the Top 10.

THE BEATLES

* “They are going to sell a lot of records. You can count on it. Picking them is also a statement about what’s happening in the business today. They have the music that lasts.”

* “I think the reaction to ‘1’ was a healthy thing. It shows people are willing to look back at great music. If we can come up with some other interesting concepts and package it correctly, we can introduce listeners to a lot of other great music-and sell a lot of records in the process.”

Several executives spoke about the hunger today for more music with the craft, optimism and classic song sense of the British band. One even suggested that the success of “1” may be the most encouraging thing to happen to the pop world in years because young musicians may focus on the merits of heartfelt melodic pop.

“There are so many copies of ‘1’ out there that one is bound to reach some kid who is also listening to Eminem or Limp Bizkit, and will fuse the Beatles’ melodic thing with either the hip-hop thing or the hard-rock thing and take us in a new direction. It’s what Kurt Cobain did with grunge, and look at the results.”

DAVE MATTHEWS BAND

Execs love Matthews’ potential because he has such a huge fan base, built up over the years by extensive touring. They feel his latest album, “Everyday,” has also helped give Matthews more of a sense of identity.

The pro:

“Now that he’s finally picked up radio support and is a core MTV artist, he just seems to have everything in his corner. The music rocks, but it’s also soulful. He’s about to take off internationally.”

The con:

“If you were picking who is going to sell the most concert tickets over the next five years, he’d be in my top five, but not record sales.”

MADONNA

There were lots of question during the former Material Girl’s early days about the depth of her artistry, but panel members now talk as much about her talent as her marketing skills.

* “You can never bet against her, but she’s almost 20 years into her career and that’s a long time to have your finger on the pulse of the pop audience.”

* “I love the fact that she knows when to put out an album, how to put it out and why to put it out. She’s always in front of the trends, and that’s especially important in this kind of fast-changing pop world.”

* “Arguably the pop icon of our generation.”

DESTINY’S CHILD

The strong support for this female vocal group was one of the surprises of the poll. Despite all the hit singles, the group has seemed to many to be just another manufactured pop act. But supporters feel lead singer Beyonce Knowles is a potential superstar.

* “I think Beyonce is the next Diana Ross. She writes, she has great vocal phrasing. She is one of those I think could last 10 or 15 years. She’s a true, true talent.”

But the doubters:

* “The group always seems to be in turmoil, with people coming and going all the time, and it’s not clear who is really calling the shots. Is it her or her father or the record company? Too many questions.”

SHANIA TWAIN

After selling umpteen-million albums last time out, this country-pop sensation and her songwriter-producer husband, Mutt Lange, have earned lots of respect as a commercial force. The concern is whether Twain will be hungry enough to put out more than one or two albums over the next seven years.

Among the comments:

* “Faith Hill is a better singer, but Shania is the bigger star, and that quality will keep her going for a few years.”

* “She is like a superstar in three genres-pop, rock and country-and that’s an enormous base. I think she is still at the tip of the iceberg in terms of sales.”

LIMP BIZKIT

Rock didn’t fare as well in the poll as in past years, and opinion on Fred Durst and Limp Bizkit was sharply divided.

The supporters:

* “Fred’s like Madonna in many respects. He’s very well-aware of where he stands in relation to the rest of pop culture . . . a really smart guy.”

* “They fill a void with the young rock audience, thanks to a very, very smart lead singer and maybe the best musicians in rock-at least for a young band.”

The down side:

* “It’s a band that seems like it’s riding the crest of a trend rather than driven by strong musical talent. I don’t hear real songs there.”

FAITH HILL

* “The difference between her and Shania is that Faith still has two huge albums in front of her, while Shania has two behind her. They are both going after the same country-pop market, and I think the odds are with her because she’s a better talent.”

* “I don’t know if she will be able to follow the path that Shania did because she’s more of a country girl and she might not be able to make the transition to pop and rock as convincingly.”

CELINE DION

* “She’s the Barbra Streisand of this generation and still a young artist. The comeback album is going to be huge. . . . The only question is how many albums she’ll deliver over seven years.”

The Second 10

Reflections on some of the acts in the second 10.

CREED

* “Their lyrics are positive. If you read about teenagers today, it’s really about positivity and hope, believe it or not. Creed really preaches to that.”

* “Part of me says Creed should be in my top three, the other part says Creed is no different than Hootie & the Blowfish.”

* “There’s something awfully comforting about having someone on your label who has been making great records for 20 years and who are as hot now as ever.”

* “A blue-chip bet. It’s like buying AT&T.;”

LAURYN HILL

This Fugees member is highly respected, but some executives worry about her slow pace in the studio.

* “She makes smart, great records. She wins you over in so many different ways.”

* “Lauryn’s magic. She is so soulful and thoughtful. Her lyrics are incredible. When she’s ready for the next album, everyone will be waiting.”

MARC ANTHONY

* “The fad has worn off of the Latin pop explosion, but here’s an artist who will last. Of all the people we’re talking about, I think he’s the one who will be around in five to 10 years-and even bigger. A major talent.”

SADE

* “Solid, multi-platinum artist who isn’t dependent on touring or a hit single to sell records. She’s a keeper.”

KID ROCK

* “Forget about the image, there’s some real artistry here and males will always dig him.”

* “A classic rock ‘n’ roll kid who grew up listening to rap music, so he bridges two cultures.”

DMX

* “He’s a legitimate star, a cross between Kurt Cobain and James Dean . . . one of the great American poets.”

* “The only thing that could hurt him is if he becomes too big of a movie star and starts getting overexposed. Otherwise, he’s the Tupac of today.”

BRITNEY SPEARS

* “She’s smart. She knows she can’t out-sing anybody or can’t out-dance anybody, but she’s constantly pushing the envelope and holding our attention.”

* “She’s too tied to the teen fad thing. One day all those little girls are going to wake up and decide they’ve outgrown her.”

Some critical favorites took their lumps. The panelists may love these acts’ records, but they worry about counting on them for big profits.

BECK

* “I love Beck, but he’s too idiosyncratic for the marketplace. I don’t feel selling records is the top thing on his mind when he goes into the studio, and that’s great if you’re looking for an interesting record, but it worries me if you’re banking on him to keep your company hot.”

MOBY

* “Moby’s only had one big record, so you’ve got to show me more before I put him on my top 10.”

RADIOHEAD

* “With Radiohead, it’s all up to them. If they want a huge album, they’ve got it. But they pulled a Pearl Jam on the last album and went away from [the pop world]. Will they bounce back this time? I’d have to sit down with them and ask them where they’re going before I’d pick them.”

The hottest debate involved the battery of recent pop newcomers, from boy bands Backstreet Boys and ‘N Sync to the pop novelty contingent led by Ricky Martin and Jennifer Lopez.

Faith in the Backstreet Boys was almost nil, but ‘N Sync got votes.

BACKSTREET BOYS

* “It’s hard for me to get behind anything [like the Backstreet Boys and ‘N Sync] because it feels so disposable to me. If the Beatles stopped selling records tomorrow, I’d be shocked. If the Backstreet Boys or ‘N Sync did, I don’t think anybody would be.”

* “I feel like both of these acts are just one or two bad singles choices away from being nonexistent.”

‘N SYNC

* “A lot of people want this teen phenomenon to go away, but I think ‘N Sync will clearly continue. Justin Timberlake could well be another Michael Jackson.” RICKY MARTIN

* “Ricky Martin already seems dated . . . he’s always going to be identified with that one song.”

JENNIFER LOPEZ

* “Why are we even talking about her? Her future is in movies and television, not music. It’s the essence of disposable pop.”

CHRISTINA AGUILERA

* “The thing Christina has going for her is that she’s a real singer. If she can just get with the right producers and writers, she has a real shot at lasting.”

The recurring theme throughout the interviews was the possibility that the biggest best-seller in the next seven years may be someone whose name was never even brought up during the discussions.

“If you look at the biggest artists of the last two or three years, it’s amazing how many were in grammar school just 10 years ago,” said one executive. “And it’s going to be wilder 10 years from now because of all the turnover.”

One label head even refused to put a No. 1 candidate on the list.

“No. 1 doesn’t exist,” the panelist said.

“You can feel there is something waiting out there that can sweep in and shake everyone up. How many people had even heard of Eminem two years ago?”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

We asked 22 executives to rank the artists they think will sell the most records in the next seven years. Each first-place mention got 10 points, second place got nine, and so on. Also listed is the number of executives voting for that artist.

1. Eminem

90 points

12 votes

2. Dr. Dre

73 points

12 votes

3. Beatles

67 points

10 votes

4. Dave Matthews Band

59 points

8 votes

5. Madonna

51 points

7 votes

6. Destiny’s Child

50 points

8 votes

7. Shania Twain

49 points

8 votes

8. Limp Bizkit

49 points

8 votes

9. Faith Hill

46 points

8 votes

10. Celine Dion

45 points

6 votes

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

THE CALENDAR SURVEY PANEL

Polly Anthony, president, Epic Records Group

Val Azzoli, co-chairman and co-CEO, Atlantic Records.

Tony Brown, president, MCA Nashville Records

Jim Caparro, chairman, Island Def Jam Music Group

Lyor Cohen, president, Island Def Jam Music Group

Ray Cooper, co-president, Virgin Records

Don Ienner, chairman, Columbia Records Group

Jimmy Iovine, co-founder, Interscope Geffen A&M; Records

Luke Lewis, chairman, Mercury Records Nashville

Kedar Massenburg, CEO and president, Motown Records

Thomas D. Mottola, chairman and CEO, Sony Music Entertainment

Guy Oseary, partner, Maverick Records

Phil Quartararo, president, Warner Bros. Records

Antonio “L.A.” Reid, president and CEO, Arista Records

Steven Rifkind, CEO, Loud Records

Sylvia Rhone, chairman, Elektra Entertainment Group

Rick Rubin, president, American Recordings

Andy Slater, president and CEO, Capitol Records

Bryan Turner, president and CEO, Priority Records

Lenny Waronker, partner, DreamWorks Records

Barry Weiss, president, Jive Records

Tom Whalley, president, Interscope Geffen A&M; Records

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Who Will Keep Producing Hits? We asked 22 record company executives to name in order the artists they think will sell the most records over the next seven years. Ten points were given for each first-place mention, nine for every second and so forth. The first number is total points, the second is the number of executives who voted for that artist.

1. Eminem 90 12

2. Dr. Dre 73 12

3. The Beatles 67 10

4. Dave Matthews Band 59 8

5. Madonna 5 17

6. Destiny’s Child 50 8

7. Shania Twain 49 8

8. Limp Bizkit 46 8

9. Faith Hill 46 8

10. Celine Dion 45 6

11. Creed 37 6

12. U2 34 7