Derby Field on Small Side but It Is Swift and Deep

With 15 horses, this year’s Kentucky Derby field will be one of the smallest in the last 15 years. It might also be one of the best.

The 15 probables for the race a week from today at Churchill Downs have won 24 stakes, 16 of them graded races. The only expected starters that haven’t won a stake--Invisible Ink and the maiden Tincin--may not belong, but the 13 others, in varying degrees, all have a right to be here. Despite the presence of Point Given, who should go off the heaviest favorite since Arazi nine years ago, there are few betting throw-outs.

The true yardstick of a given Derby’s quality shows up later, of course, when the 3-year-olds are pitted against older horses late in the year, but for now the crop of 2001 has a reasonably deep look.

What’s more, the students of time--the guys who afix raw speed numbers to horses every time they run--are also saying this is an especially fast group.

“This is head and shoulders the best crop I’ve seen,” said Jerry Brown of the respected Thoro-Graph outfit. “These horses are running as fast as [older horses] Captain Steve and Tiznow.”

Writing in the Daily Racing Form, and using the ubiquitous Beyer speed figures as a gauge, Joe Cardello says that this is the best Derby field in at least a decade.

Cardello points out that four Derby probables--Point Given, Millennium Wind, Balto Star and Express Tour--are going into the race with Beyer ratings of 110 or higher. Since 1992, only one Derby, in 1998, had as many as three horses with 110 Beyers.

“[Those four] don’t even include Monarchos and Congaree, two of the Derby’s principal contenders,” Cardello said.

The Beyer numbers, developed by handicapping guru Andrew Beyer of the Washington Post, give Millennium Wind a 114 for his win in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Balto Star got a 112 for winning the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park in Florence, Ky. Point Given, despite toying with the horses he beat in the Santa Anita Derby, came away with a 110 Beyer, and Express Tour’s number was estimated to be at least a 110 for his win in the United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai.

In an interview with Steve Haskin of Blood-Horse magazine, Brown said that Millennium Wind’s Thoro-Graph number for the Blue Grass was minus- 1/4. The lower the Thoro-Graph number, the faster a horse has run. Balto Star’s Arkansas Derby win at Oaklawn Park was good for 1/4, Point Given received 1/2 at Santa Anita, and his stablemate Congaree had a rating of 1 1/4 for the Wood.

Others expected to run in the Derby are Fifty Stars, the Louisiana Derby winner; Fountain of Youth winner Songandaprayer; Dollar Bill, a late-running colt who was fourth in the Louisiana Derby and third in the Blue Grass; Flamingo winner Thunder Blitz; Talk Is Money, second in the Federico Tesio; Jamaican Rum, second in the Arkansas Derby, and A P Valentine, who has yet to regain his best 2-year-old form.

There’s a chance that two other horses--Keats and Gift Of The Eagle--will join the field. Keats, winner of the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 21, is a possible, with his handlers--owner Henry Pabst and trainer Niall O’Callaghan--expected to decide early next week. Gift Of The Eagle, 10-1 on the morning line for today’s $100,000 Derby Trial at Churchill, could run back in a week if he produces a compelling performance.

Since 1986, only two Derbies have had fewer than 15 horses. If Keats and Gift Of The Eagle don’t show up, Churchill Downs will need the auxiliary starting gate for only one horse. The auxiliary gate was considered a bugbear until four horses--Thunder Gulch, Grindstone, Charismatic and Fusaichi Pegasus--won from outside posts in recent years.

When Bob Baffert, the trainer of Point Given and Congaree, won the Derby with Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998, he caught relatively small fields. Silver Charm had to beat only 12 horses in the smallest Derby field in 12 years, and Real Quiet outran 14 rivals. Baffert also finished third in 1998, with Indian Charlie.

Not long after Congaree had won the Wood, Baffert watched on TV as Balto Star ran off with the Arkansas Derby by 4 1/2 lengths. A horse Point Given and Congaree have never raced, Balto Star worries Baffert.

“That dude just keeps going,” Baffert said.

It took the speedy Balto Star four races to break his maiden, but he’s won his last three starts by almost 30 lengths. His onus is that he’s a gelding and he usually runs on the front end. Seventy-three geldings--most recently, the Baffert-trained General Challenge in 1999--have failed to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen’s win in 1929. And the only gate-to-wire Derby winners in the last 24 years have been Spend A Buck in 1985 and the filly Winning Colors in 1988.

Even so, this is not the time for trainer Todd Pletcher to monkey with Balto Star’s successful running style. In his last two races--the Spiral and the Arkansas Derby--Pletcher’s horse has run the opening half-mile in less than 46 seconds. In 126 years at the Derby, only 12 horses have run that fast or faster early, and most of them paid for it dearly. But Bold Forbes, in 1976, opened with a 45 4/5 and still carried that speed over the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles. Spend A Buck was 45 4/5 for the first four furlongs and didn’t stop.

Bold Forbes and Spend A Buck won because, despite their early speed, no one pushed them and they were allowed to relax. There are other horses this year--Millennium Wind, Congaree--capable of hounding Balto Star at the start, but David Hofmans, with Millennium Wind, and Baffert, with Congaree, may not want to make that sacrifice. Thirteen years ago, no one fooled with Winning Colors, and that’s how she was able to go all the way. Baffert’s concern about Balto Star is not hooey.

Notes

Monarchos, second in the Wood Memorial after winning the Florida Derby, worked five furlongs Friday in 1:00 4/5. Trainer John Ward said that would be Monarchos’ last workout before the Derby. . . . One of Bob Baffert’s older horses, the Strub winner Wooden Phone, runs against six rivals today in the $300,000 Texas Mile at Lone Star Park. Also in the field are Hal’s Hope, Dixie Dot Com and Mr Ross. Corey Nakatani rides Wooden Phone and David Flores will be aboard Dixie Dot Com. . . . Gary Stevens, who rides Point Given in the Kentucky Derby, will be at Bay Meadows today to ride Hawksley Hill in the $300,000 San Francisco Mile. Nine are entered in the grass race.