Davis’ Reelection Chances Heat Up as Energy Crisis Cools Down

Every time somebody flips a switch and a room lights up, Gov. Gray Davis’ reelection prospects get a little brighter. Republican chances of booting him grow dimmer.

We’re two-thirds of the way through the summer and California still has air-conditioning. Old folks and babies are not melting. Utility bills are not eating up vacation kitties.

There’s still time for calamity, but so far it’s clear that the doomsayers were overly shrill and far off the mark. What happened to the predictions of 34 days or 260 hours of rolling blackouts? So far there has not been one.

Night baseball isn’t threatened.

This all came to mind as I vacationed at Lake Tahoe. Four friends and relatives--all men--told me they’d decided no way could they vote for Gray Davis next year. Hate the guy. Too political. Opportunistic. Spends too much time raising campaign money. No core beliefs. No leadership.

Four’s not much of a focus group, but I assume others share their views. Moreover, these chaps are left-leaning Democrats who rarely vote Republican. They’ll probably not vote at all, they said. Well, maybe for former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, a moderate Republican.

Just look at how Davis has botched this energy crisis!

Fine, let’s look.

It’s true that Davis vacillated last summer and allowed an energy mess to fester into a crisis--a mess, let’s not forget, created primarily by Republicans. But after that sorry start, Davis clamped onto this complex can of worms and never let loose.

Indeed, I’d argue he’s now leading California out of the morass.

Sure, this has been a mild summer. But tolerable temperatures alone could not have avoided blackouts without action by the governor and Legislature. Like:

* Davis greased new power plant construction. By summer’s end, there will be four new major plants and 10 smaller ones on line. Seventeen more plants are being built.

* He negotiated with producers of alternative energy--such as solar and wind--to restart their plants after they’d shut down in a huff over not being paid. They produce 15% of California’s electricity.

* An $850-million conservation effort was created. Critics snickered, including Vice President Dick Cheney. But last month, Californians used 5% less electricity than during the previous July, even when adjusted for mild weather. In June, they used 12% less.

* Davis seized control of the California Independent System Operator, snatching it from energy interests making a killing off California. Cal-ISO runs the power line grid. “It went from being a shield for [power] generators and marketers to being a searchlight that has ferreted out gouging and gaming,” says Garry South, Davis’ political strategist.

* With other West Coast Democrats, Davis pressured President Bush and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission into abandoning their hidebound ideology and adopting regional price caps. Critics accused Davis of acting like a jerk, but Bush caved when congressional Republicans moaned about public heat.

* Most controversial, the governor negotiated long-term contracts for electricity. Cost: $43 billion. He’d been denounced for not doing this last year. Now, carpers complain he has bought too much juice at too high a price. But that misses the point: Overbuying beats blackouts.

You don’t have to be an electrical engineer to understand that the only way to avoid a shortage is to have a surplus.

Bottom line on price: Megawatt hours earlier this year were averaging $321, and frequently exceeding $1,000. Now, they’re capped at $92 and often selling for $60-$70.

“In reality,” South says, “what people care about are two things: The lights stay on and bills don’t go through the roof. Everything else is background noise.”

There’s loud background noise about conflicts of interest.

Republican Secretary of State Bill Jones--who must live off political opportunity because he has little money--has earned accolades from all sides by steadily pounding Davis, accusing him of allowing advisors to “personally profit from the energy crisis.”

About a dozen Davis officials were found with financial ties to energy companies. Five were fired; one quit. I don’t know whether any of this was illegal. But it was dumb politically. Reckless. Davis was asleep. In fact, he has a career-long rap sheet of straddling the line on ethics.

This alone, however, is not likely to sway voters already jaded by political scandal.

Davis needs to avoid raising taxes and cutting vital services in a slumping economy. Schools must test well. He can’t be blamed for a drought. And he still has to get through this summer and next.

Air-conditioning will cool Republican rhetoric about a “Davis power crisis.” It’ll probably even chill out my Tahoe buddies.