Redistricting, Condit’s Lifesaver, Could Be His Doom Instead

Rep. Gary Condit’s political days are numbered. For one reason, just look at the numbers in a likely congressional redistricting plan.

Condit is being shoved overboard by the political system--not only fellow Democrats, but the very device many pols had thought would be his life ring: redistricting.

Redistricting drafters in the state Senate, working with the California House delegation, are about to propose a plan that would make Condit’s Modesto-based district much more Democratic. So Democratic, in fact, that the scandalized “blue dog” conservative could be beaten in a party primary.

This Democratic strengthening was their idea all along, say Senate leaders, even before Washington intern Chandra Levy disappeared and Condit went into an ugly hole.

Condit had won seven terms from the rural district, but he wanted to move up the political ladder. In fact, he had created a fund-raising committee to finance a race for some undetermined statewide office. A Republican then could capture the congressional seat, Democrats feared.

So the plan is to move the district’s northern boundaries into south Stockton and pack it with loyal Democratic voters. “Yellow dogs, not blue dogs,” says Senate Reapportionment Committee Chairman Don Perata (D-Alameda). (I’d sooner vote for a yellow dog than a Republican.) “Take-to-the-bank Democrats.” Including working-class Latinos and blacks.

Voter registration in Condit’s district is 46% Democratic, 39% Republican. That’s considered competitive. Under the proposal, the Democratic advantage would increase to 52% to 34%. The goal is to make this a 10-year Democratic district, solid at least until the next reapportionment in 2011.

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“They’re changing the character of the district,” says Tony Quinn, a former GOP reapportionment consultant. “They’re gerrymandering Gary Condit out of his seat.”

Under the plan--which must be passed by the Legislature and signed by the governor--one-third of Democrats in the new district would never have been represented by Condit. There’d be no longtime bond. He’d be known only as the married congressman who had an affair with a hometown intern 29 years his junior, then publicly clammed up when she disappeared.

Presumably, there’d also be many thousands of repulsed voters in the old part of Condit’s district who’d be eager for a Democratic alternative.

“If he chooses to run for reelection,” says state Democratic Chairman Art Torres, “he will have primary opposition. That’s pretty clear, from what I’m hearing.

“In politics, it’s all about timing. Here, the timing seems to be open for a challenge.”

Democratic names being mentioned: state Sen. Mike Machado and former Sen. Patrick Johnston, both from the Stockton area; Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza of Merced; Lisa Quigley, top aide to Rep. Calvin Dooley of Visalia; and state Agriculture Secretary Bill Lyons of Modesto.

One Democratic strategist pointed to House Democratic Leader Richard Gephardt’s harsh comments about Condit after his TV interview with ABC’s Connie Chung. “Disturbing and wrong,” Gephardt said of Condit’s answers. “I didn’t hear candor.”

Observed the strategist: “Gephardt’s message was, “Don’t give him any campaign money! If you’re thinking about running against him, go ahead!”’

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Gephardt was stunned by Condit’s TV performance, says one person close to the Missouri lawmaker. Just before the congressional recess, the insider says, Condit informed Gephardt he was headed home to announce that he’d decided not to run for reelection next year. He said the same thing to at least two California congressmen.

That’s why on the Sunday before the Condit-Chung fiasco, Gephardt went on a TV talk show and gave the embattled congressman some space. He cautioned against “a rush to judgment” and characterized Condit as honorable.

Indeed, it could be that Condit has not been intending to run for reelection, despite his aides’ contrary signals two weeks ago. All the aides really announced, after all, was that the congressman planned to hold his annual “Condit Country” fund-raising barbecue Oct. 20.

One source reports that Condit asked the Federal Elections Commission whether he could use campaign funds to pay his legal fees, and was told that he could.

If Condit, deep down, already had thrown in the towel, it would help explain why he didn’t seem in the right frame of mind for the interview of his life. Why he was so politically self-destructive. So unrepentant. But Democratic leaders again are giving Condit space, Torres says. “They want to give him breathing room to make the right decision.”

Like look at the numbers and plan for retirement.