Regionalism Without Vision Won’t Fly at LAX

The concept of regionalism voiced by Los Angeles’ elected leaders in regard to Los Angeles International Airport can be summed up in one word: Baloney! They presume there will be a fair distribution of regional air traffic, oppose runway expansion and look to the Federal Aviation Administration to constrain traffic before they have any assurances that that traffic will be accepted elsewhere in the region. Their premise is at best untested and what they are delivering is a system failure that will fall on their successors’ heads 10 years hence.

By 2020, regional air travel will bring us 150 million to 170 million annual passengers. It is tantalizing to contemplate the associated benefits: hundreds of thousands of jobs, billions of dollars of economic activity and a region energized by being the hub of international trade. But to enjoy those benefits, we need the vision to put in place the infrastructure to capture that activity.

What is the air commerce reality today? We have four key regional airports that have constraints preventing achievement of a workable vision for the area. Burbank voters have refused improvement of that airport terminal, even in the face of safety issues. Long Beach has adopted limits on the number of flights. The same likely is true for John Wayne Airport. Ontario, the supposed savior, is subject to air quality limits on the number of flights and passengers it can handle.

Where then does one turn for a solution? El Toro! Our leaders talk about other regions assuming responsibility for their share of the passenger flow, but have any of the Los Angeles officials who are opposed to capacity increases at LAX gone to their colleagues in Orange County and said, you need to step up now? Nope! They would rather have the FAA limit flights at LAX and strangle our own commerce and not tackle the problem.

The evergreen alternative is to shift the activity to Palmdale. But can Palmdale be the site of a major commercial airport capable of drawing traffic from LAX? Let’s begin with geography. The U.S. airport most distant from the market it serves is Dulles at 26 miles. Next is Denver at 23 miles. To induce use of Dulles, a separate access road was built. Palmdale is 61 miles from downtown L.A., and about 50 miles from the center of the San Fernando Valley. Between Palmdale and points south is a congested roadway.

This area has balked at the construction of express trains servicing the San Fernando Valley because of cost. Does it seem reasonable that citizens will vote for a bond larger than the cost of the Red Line, over which many gagged, to get people to an airport twice as far from its market as any other in the U.S.?

Those who want a regional plan need to get commitments from those who already have refused to accept their fair share. That includes a commitment from Orange County elected officials to deliver El Toro, and commitments from Burbank, Long Beach and Costa Mesa/Irvine/Newport Beach that each community will allow their airports to adjust to their natural demand. Responsible leaders can’t just constrain natural growth factors at LAX before demonstrating a real workable alternative with buy-in from all players. Failure to do so will cost this region more than 40million annual passengers, two-thirds the economic benefit of LAX today.

It is naive to believe that simply because we don’t develop infrastructure to support our future that the future will adjust to our shortsightedness. But the worst scenario is that a competing region will see our unwillingness to seize opportunity and it will capture the bounty of our future.

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Robert L. Rodine, a management consultant for industry, including air commerce, is chairman of the Valley Industry and Commerce Assn.’s aviation committee.