Paper Trail

It was the spring of 1998 and UCLA fans were abuzz. The Bruins had signed a group of high school prospects that included DeShaun Foster, Robert Thomas, Mike Saffer and Lovell Houston. Recruiting magazines and Internet sites hailed it as the best freshman class in the nation.

Four years later, everyone wonders what happened.

If nothing else, the Bruins’ disappointing season proves that, for all the time and effort that goes into evaluating young talent, recruiting remains an inexact science. And for all the hoopla, a top-ranked recruiting class is no guarantee of success down the road.

That same spring, Miami assembled a less-heralded group that analysts ranked as low as 30th. Yet the Hurricanes will play for the national championship in the Rose Bowl next week.

“It’s not like the top-25 poll, where you can sit and watch teams perform and make an educated vote,” said Rick Kimbrel, editor of PrepStar magazine.

“Many times, the difference between recruiting classes at two different schools might be a guy who blows his knee out and a guy who is second-tier but ends up being all-world.”

Or, as Florida State recruiting coordinator John Lilly put it, “You could hit the jackpot, you could end up with almost nothing.”

Consider the tales of four teams--two that made it to the Rose Bowl and two that recruiting analysts predicted might be there.

MIAMI

In the spring of ‘98, the Hurricanes attracted nothing close to the bevy of top-100 prospects that UCLA netted. But they did not come up empty. Far from it.

The team that takes the field against Nebraska on Thursday will feature several players from that recruiting class. Defensive tackle William Joseph is a third-team All-American and leads Miami with 10 sacks. Center Brett Romberg was a Rimington Award finalist. Kicker Todd Sievers was a Groza Award candidate.

More important, the Hurricanes have succeeded because of consistency.

There is a saying in college football: “Recruiting is like shaving ... if you don’t do it every day, you look like a bum.” That applies season after season.

“The approach is not just to fix next year’s team,” Mississippi Coach David Cutcliffe said. “You’re building a program, and recruiting back-to-back classes is critical.”

In Miami’s freshman class of 1997 were fullback Najeh Davenport, offensive tackle Joaquin Gonzalez and All-American free safety Edward Reed. The class of 1999 yielded quarterback Ken Dorsey, this season’s Maxwell Award winner, and running back Clinton Portis.

“People get excited about one class,” said Allen Wallace, publisher of SuperPrep magazine. “It’s really not going to bring a team to the promised land unless it is followed up by other classes.”

NEBRASKA

After years spent poring over high school prospects, analyzing freshman classes and keeping track of how they turn out, Wallace has witnessed another important dynamic.

“It’s not just how successful you are at signing prospects,” he said. “It’s about how successful you are at deciding who is right for you.”

Ron Powlus, the former Notre Dame quarterback, is regarded as the poster boy for what happens when that principle is ignored. Highly regarded as a dropback passer, he joined a program more closely associated with the option offense and struggled throughout his career.

Nebraska, which had the 17th-ranked class in 1998, is famous for signing lesser-heralded recruits who nonetheless fit perfectly into the Cornhusker system.

The stability of the program plays a role. From Bob Devaney to Tom Osborne to Frank Solich, the Cornhuskers have promoted coaches from within and maintained a consistent philosophy on the field. That includes massive offensive linemen, fleet quarterbacks and I-backs and aggressive defensive players.

The freshman class of 1998 was no exception.

Running back Dahrran Diedrick, a prospect from Ontario, Canada, is the Cornhuskers’ leading rusher with 1,299 yards this season. Defensive end Chris Kelsay led the team with 17 tackles for losses. Split end Wilson Thomas, who did not play football until his junior year in high school but made USA Today honorable mention as a senior, has a team-high 37 catches for 616 yards.

“They will be the first school to tell you recruiting rankings mean nothing,” Wallace said. “They go after the kind of athlete they think is going to work for them. It removes a lot of the ambiguity.”

MICHIGAN

Four years ago, the Wolverines were coming off a national championship season and, by most accounts, had the second-ranked freshman class in the nation. The Wolverines did it with flash.

The prized catch was tailback Justin Fargas, a Parade All-American from Sherman Oaks Notre Dame High. Then came Drew Henson, who as a schoolboy quarterback and third baseman had already made the cover of Sports Illustrated.

These two prospects appeared to be what coaches call “the Holy Grail,” players who can take over a team and win games.

Fargas began well enough, becoming a starter several games into his freshman season and rushing for 120 yards against Northwestern. But then he suffered a severely broken leg that required three surgeries and kept him off the field for more than a year. Mired down the depth chart, he eventually transferred to USC where he red-shirted this season.

Henson’s career was cut short in another way. Just before his senior season, when many analysts ranked him among the top college quarterbacks in the nation, he left school to sign a six-year, $17-million contract with the New York Yankees.

The Wolverines still had winning seasons with running back Anthony Thomas and receiver David Terrell, another member of the 1998 class. They will play Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl next week. But they have not made a serious run at another national championship.

“Who knows what can happen after a few years,” Utah Coach Ron McBride said. “Everything you do in recruiting is a gamble.”

UCLA

Foster, Thomas, Saffer, Houston--they reminded Bruin fans of a freshman class 14 years earlier.

The 1984 group included future NFL players Ken Norton Jr., Gaston Green and Darryl Henley. They also led their team to a bowl game in every season during their tenure. Yet, even as Coach Bob Toledo celebrated the new crop in 1998, he warned: “You don’t know how good they really are until they get to campus and put on the pads.”

So what happened?

Foster, Thomas and Saffer became top college players, all right. But Foster’s off-the-field problems hurt the team. And Cory Paus, another member of that class, has yet to prove himself as a quarterback.

Among other members of the class, heralded offensive lineman Blake Worley had to quit the game after suffering a series of concussions. Houston, a defensive back, transferred after injuring his shoulder. And analysts point to a recruit the following year, quarterback J.P. Losman, as someone who might have made a difference had he not transferred to Tulane.

“There are so many variables,” Kimbrel said. “You’ve got to look at injuries and guys who never live up to their potential. You also have to look at coaching.”

And that’s why people in the game tend to be skeptical about predictions based on a group of 18-year-olds who have never played a down at the college level.

Coaches admit, in private moments, to glancing at the recruiting rankings. Florida State’s Lilly says he might even mention a high ranking to impress a prospect. But he and other coaches insist they know better than to believe the hype.

They know the limits of potential.

“We have never been ranked in the top 20 in recruiting and I don’t care if we ever are,” said Washington State Coach Mike Price, whose team will play Purdue in the Sun Bowl. “The important thing is what you do with the players after you get them.”

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Underachieving Class

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