Red Line Riding Close to MTA’s Projections

Despite parking problems and a monthlong strike that halted mass transit, ridership on Los Angeles’ now-completed Red Line subway has approached estimates made two years before stations opened in North Hollywood and Universal City.

But there’s still a 20% shortfall in boardings at two of the final three stops, and the MTA is launching a $68,000 advertising campaign to boost overall ridership.

From July to November, the North Hollywood station had a weekday average of 6,215 boardings. The Universal City station had 7,550 and the Hollywood Boulevard/Highland Avenue station had 4,784. For the entire subway system, average weekday boardings were 110,094, with a round-trip ride counting as two boardings.

Those figures are not far off from MTA’s February 1998 estimates--the agency’s last projections prior to the completion of the subway.

At the time of those estimates, transit officials knew that bus changes that could boost Red Line ridership would not be made in time for the subway’s completion. That, and other economic and demographic concerns, led to more conservative ridership figures for 2000.

So two years before the subway was finished, expected average weekday boardings were adjusted to 7,600 for North Hollywood, 7,400 at Universal City and 5,800 at Hollywood/Highland. Boardings for all 16 Red Line stations were adjusted down to 116,500.

Those numbers pale compared with initial MTA projections cited in 1989 environmental documents used to garner millions of dollars in federal aid to build the $4.7-billion subway.

In that report, the last official ridership projections required by the federal government, officials estimated 20,807 daily boardings at North Hollywood, 30,666 at Universal City and 24,767 at Hollywood/Highland. Boardings for the entire line were projected at nearly 298,000.

MTA officials defended their initial estimates because of existing conditions when the 1989 report was written: flourishing downtown development and employment, high parking and gasoline costs and different demographics.

“If we still had those ’89 assumptions, we would still be doing high ridership projections,” said Keith Killough, MTA deputy executive officer for countywide planning.

Revisions to initial estimates are essential, the MTA said. Forecasts are made several times a year.

“We are always making refinements,” Killough explained. “It’s like weather. We make adjustments every day.”

Bus Activists Remain Skeptical of Estimates

Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Los Angeles), a frequent critic of the Red Line subway during its 1980s gestation, said even then he feared the project would fail to meet commuter needs and was conceived, instead, to assuage political pressures.

“Even in the late ‘80s, I thought their [ridership] estimations were way out of line,” Waxman said. “It seemed to me that their estimates were based on a very rosy scenario gauged to try to continue to get funding.”

Bus passenger activists are perennially skeptical of the estimates.

“Those projections in 1989 are made to secure funding,” said Martin Hernandez, an organizer with the Bus Riders Union. “At best, they were misinformed. At worst, they were misleading.”

The Metro Rail subway project, Hernandez added, does not serve most of those county residents who are completely dependent on public transit. “These are not transportation projects,” he said. “Why is there a station at Universal City? It’s a corporation trying to get more visitors to Universal Studios.”

Although he said he is disappointed by early ridership figures, Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Mission Hills), whose district includes the North Hollywood subway station, said the fledgling project must be evaluated over the long haul.

Shortly after it was completed in mid-June, Berman said, the Red Line lost a month of passengers during the strike. He added that many, including his wife and daughter, were discouraged by parking lot shortages at North Hollywood and Universal City.

“This system is still unfolding,” Berman said. “When we have good busways from the north Valley, especially the transit-dependent northeast Valley, it will be more integrated . . . then we will see what it will do.”

Subway’s Final Link Built Under Budget

One clear success: the $1.3-billion North Hollywood extension was built on time and under budget.

This final segment of the subway was largely paid for by the federal government, which picked up 70% of the tab.

The agency recently introduced billboard and radio ads boasting “Hollywood to downtown in 15 minutes” and “Valley to downtown in 20 minutes.”

But Waxman and others wonder if catchy advertising is enough to entice new passengers.

“My criticism is that it is hard to imagine too many people who will drive to the subway to use it,” Waxman said.

“I’m not sure they won’t stay in their cars.”