State Jobless Figures Defy National Trend

California’s unemployment rate dipped to its lowest level in more than three decades last month, an apparent show of economic strength that defied the nation’s slowdown and the state’s energy crunch. The jobless level fell to 4.5% in January, down from a revised 4.7% in December.

Officials also announced Friday that California in 2000 gained more than half a million jobs, the best yearlong performance since 1978, according to the state’s annual reassessment of employment figures.

But not all of the economic news was good. In Los Angeles County, which never enjoyed a boom rivaling the Bay Area’s surge since the late 1990s, unemployment edged up to 5.2% in January, from a revised 5.1% the month before.

What’s more, a separate employment survey that normally is one of the most trusted state economic measures showed a big loss of 50,200 jobs in January. Most analysts discounted that report, however, maintaining that last month’s figures were skewed by quirks in government techniques for calculating job totals.

Taken together, the flood of employment figures was a pleasant surprise for analysts who track the economy. Though the state’s most prominent business forecasters have said they expect California to avoid falling into recession this year, some felt that an energy-related slowdown might already have begun.

Now, however, it appears that the momentum from last year’s boom continued into January.

The last time California’s unemployment dipped lower was December 1969, the height of the Vietnam war, when the rate was 4.4%.

The state’s generally rosy unemployment numbers joined other recent indicators in portraying the California economy as a still-buoyant force. For instance, an analysis showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance last month was the lowest in 13 years in California. In addition, state general fund tax revenues were unusually strong, coming in at 9.1%, or $854 million, more than forecast.

Nationally, as previously reported, unemployment rose to 4.2% in January, up from 4% in December.

Ted Gibson, chief economist for the California Department of Finance, said he still expects the energy crunch and the national downturn to slow the state economy soon, “but we didn’t see it in January.”

Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., was even more upbeat: “A lot of East Coast analysts were saying that energy could pull California into recession, and that could then pull the nation as well into recession. But this shows that the California economy still is rolling.”

Additional evidence that the state’s energy crisis has yet to take a heavy toll came from the California Employment Development Department. It reported that fewer than 1% of the more than 300,000 Californians who applied for unemployment insurance from Jan. 1 through the first half of February said their joblessness was linked to the energy crunch.

Michael S. Bernick, the department’s director, said his agency’s offices around the state still are being flooded with requests from employers for workers.

The outlook for the coming months, however, is clouded by an array of factors, along with the national slowdown and California’s energy woes. They include the recent decline in technology spending--a major blow to the Bay Area--and the possibility of strikes in Hollywood. Some analysts fear that weakness in Japan and other East Asian nations that are major California trading partners could sting the state. Likewise, continued softness in the stock market might hurt consumer spending and jeopardize home values, particularly in areas such as the Silicon Valley.

“We’ve probably seen the best of the employment news for a while,” said Brad Williams, senior economist for the state legislative analyst’s office. “We see a slowdown coming in the first half of this year and going into the second half of the year.”

One possible sign of the coming trend: A new quarterly survey from the Manpower Inc. employment services company shows that in downtown Los Angeles and nearby areas, only 15% of employers plan to add workers this spring. In contrast, 30% expect to cut jobs, and the rest plan no changes or aren’t sure what they will do.

Still, Los Angeles County’s jobless rate, at 5.2%, is just one-tenth of a percentage point from its lowest level since officials started keeping records in their current form in 1983.

All other Southern California counties also posted increases in their unemployment rates. Unlike numbers for California and Los Angeles County, though, those for the other Southern California counties are not adjusted for seasonal trends.

As a result, analysts said, the rising unemployment reported outside of Los Angeles County may have resulted largely from such factors as the traditional loss of retailing jobs in January, following the holiday shopping season. That trend is filtered out in the seasonal adjustments included in the statewide and Los Angeles numbers.

In Orange County, the unemployment rate was 2.3% in January, up from 2% in December but down from 2.7% in January 2000.

“This report doesn’t show any sign of a slowing in the local economy,” said Esmael Adibi, director of the Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange. “That is the startling factor.”

In other Southern California counties, unemployment rates were as follows:

* Riverside: 4.7% last month, up from 4.4% in December, but down from 5.2% in January 2000.

* San Bernardino, 4.6% last month, up from 3.8% in December, but down from 4.8% a year ago.

* San Diego, 2.7% last month, versus 2.4% in December, but down from 3.1% a year earlier.

* Ventura, 4.4% versus 4.1% but down from 4.8% in January 2000.

The finding of California’s 50,200-job loss last month in one of the employment surveys, analysts said, may have stemmed from faulty seasonal adjustments. In addition, fewer employers than usual replied to the monthly state survey in time for their work forces to be included in the overall estimates, officials said.

But the annual reassessment of the state’s employment figures--known as “benchmarking” among economists--yielded upbeat results. It lifted the state’s nonfarm job total by 144,400 at the end of last year, to more than 14.7 million.

All told, the average employment level among nonfarm workers was up 526,700 last year. That was up from 1999’s gain of 395,800, and the biggest rise since 1978.

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Times staff writer Leslie Earnest in Orange County contributed to this story.