More Battles Predicted for Ashcroft

Attorney general nominee John Ashcroft could win the endorsement of a key Senate panel today, but opponents say the political beating he has taken may hamper his ability to lead the Justice Department and work with Congress.

Although some special-interest groups are holding out hope for an eleventh-hour reversal, even many Democrats believe that Ashcroft’s ultimate confirmation is essentially a done deal--despite Monday’s announcement from Sen. Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, that he will oppose him.

“With the Republicans voting in lock-step on this, that would seem to make the outcome a foregone conclusion,” said one Democratic official who asked not to be identified.

But at what cost would Ashcroft’s confirmation come?

The five-week fight already has delayed his planned takeover of the 130,000-employee Justice Department, and observers suggest that it could affect his working relationship with both the career civil servants he would lead and members of Congress who would oversee his department’s budget and review its performance.

Relations with Congress proved an Achilles’ heel for former Atty. Gen. Janet Reno, who won confirmation on a 98-0 vote but came under increasing attack from Republican critics for much of her eight years in office. Mindful of how important those relations can be, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) said she worried that her decision last week to come out against Ashcroft would make it tougher to work with the new attorney general if he is confirmed.

The confirmation fight could affect Ashcroft’s performance as attorney general in other ways as well, giving him less flexibility in office than he might have liked, observers said.

Ashcroft’s positions and political views over the last 25 years have generated intense scrutiny by the Senate in recent weeks, scrutiny that some Republicans say is virtually unprecedented for a political appointee. As a result, Ashcroft has had to modify his stances on a number of issues, including abortion and gun control, and if he’s confirmed, Democrats will be watching closely to see whether he adheres to the promises he made under oath.

Moreover, some of Ashcroft’s liberal opponents are banking on the fight over his nomination to push Ashcroft to name less conservative deputies than he might otherwise choose. The top political slots at the Justice Department require Senate confirmation, and Republicans may be loath to risk another pitched battle.

“That’s going to be the real test--the individuals” Ashcroft chooses for key department posts, said Terry Eastland, a former aide in the Reagan administration’s Justice Department and, until recently, publisher of the conservative American Spectator magazine. Special-interest groups “are already laying down their markers on that one,” he added.

Ralph Neas, head of People for the American Way, a liberal group that has helped lead the fight against Ashcroft, said he believes the former Missouri senator enters the final stage of his confirmation battle with his credibility badly damaged.

“I do see a diminished effectiveness” for Ashcroft if he is confirmed, Neas said. “This has already been a major embarrassment for the Bush administration. Here at a time when [President Bush] could have made incredible inroads in his promises to be more of a unifier, he brings us a nominee who is clearly a divider.”

The most analogous confirmation battle for the Republicans is that of Edwin M. Meese III, a longtime friend and advisor to President Reagan who had to wait 13 months before he was confirmed as attorney general in 1985.

Amid allegations of ethical improprieties, Meese was finally confirmed, 63 to 31, the largest negative vote count for an attorney general nominee in 60 years. His 3 1/2-year tenure was rocky, marked by political and legal scrimmages, and he ultimately resigned as an independent counsel was wrapping up a 14-month investigation into his financial dealings.

Some of Ashcroft’s opponents said that they expect to surpass the 31 votes against Meese--a symbolic win that they believe would send a stern message to the Bush White House. But Ashcroft’s supporters said they will be happy with any margin of victory.

In assessing how many votes it would take for Ashcroft and Bush to claim victory, “I don’t know that there’s any magic number, but I would think you would want more than at least a handful of Democrats” to vote for the nominee on the Senate floor, said Eastland, who was Meese’s spokesman.

As the Judiciary Committee moves to vote this afternoon on Ashcroft, all nine of the Republicans on the panel are solidly behind the nominee. But a strong majority of the nine Democrats are expected to vote against him, with Leahy becoming the latest to formally join the opposition ranks.

In a speech on the Senate floor Monday, Leahy said he was deeply troubled by Ashcroft’s “extreme” positions on abortion, civil rights and other issues--and by his dramatic transformation in recent weeks in pledging to enforce laws in such areas even if they conflict with his political views or religious beliefs. Leahy said Bush made a “crucial miscalculation” by nominating such a divisive person.

It is conceivable that today’s committee vote could end in a 9-9 tie along party lines. The two Wisconsin Democrats on the panel--Russell D. Feingold and Herbert Kohl--are considered swing votes, and they were not saying Monday which way they will vote.

Even so, a tie in the committee would represent a symbolic victory rather than a practical one for Democrats. Under old Senate rules, a tie would have blocked the nomination from moving to the Senate floor. But under the new power-sharing arrangement reached between party leaders in the current Senate, which is split 50-50 between the parties, even a tie vote will move a nomination to the Senate floor.

The full Senate vote could come as early as Wednesday.

Even before the nomination reaches the Senate, the unofficial floor debate began Monday, as senators on both sides of the aisle weighed in.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) accused Democrats of unfairly questioning the integrity and sincerity of “a decent man.”

But Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who as minority whip is the Democrats’ chief vote-counter in the chamber, urged Republicans to weigh the seriousness of Ashcroft’s nomination, rather than simply acting in lock-step to approve it.

“I think it’s so important that we all take what has gone on in committee to heart,” said Reid, adding he is still unsure how he will vote. “This isn’t a decision only Democrats have to make. I would hope Republicans also keep an open mind.”

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Times staff writer Nick Anderson contributed to this story.