Recession Monitor Drops Use of ‘R-Word’

A research group that monitors U.S. business cycles has dropped a previous statement that a recession may have begun recently.

Recent economic data “continue to suggest that the only substantial declines in real activity in the U.S. economy are in manufacturing,” the National Bureau of Economic Research said in a report posted this week on its Internet site.

“Broader aggregates, such as employment and real personal income, haven’t fallen significantly or at all,” the group also said.

Unlike previous reports starting May 15, the newest one omits a line saying that data suggested the “possibility” of a recession.

The bureau, based in Cambridge, Mass., has a committee whose members decide when recessions and expansions begin and end. The group’s Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as a “significant decline” throughout the economy. The slowdown lasts more than a few months and shows up in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade.

The committee’s six members gather whenever they think they have to decide that the economy has changed direction. The committee doesn’t announce when it meets, to avoid arousing public concern.