Gubernatorial Talk Prolongs Riordan Power

Listen to Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan one day, and he seems uninterested in running for governor: “I have nothing against the people of California, so why should I run?”

Listen to Riordan another day, and he talks about forming an exploratory committee by the end of this month: “Do I think I can do a good job for the state as governor? Yes, I do.”

The conflicting signals reflect not just his ambivalence about running for governor, but also Riordan’s struggle to maintain power as his eight years as mayor come to an end.

His final budget has passed the City Council. He has delivered his last State of the City address. All his major policy proposals are behind him. He must vacate his City Hall office in four weeks.

How, then, does Riordan sustain his influence as the top politician in Los Angeles?

One way has been to warn from his bully pulpit that Hollywood strikes threatened the city’s economy. Another has been to campaign for mayoral candidate Antonio Villaraigosa.

But Riordan’s best shot at prolonging his political potency lies in stoking speculation about a race for governor.

“It keeps him more powerful than a lame duck typically would be,” said Jaime Regalado, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at Cal State Los Angeles. “If you’re a lame duck, your power base is almost gone.”

Indeed, when Riordan leaves office, he will lose the cornerstone of his political foundation: a city government that employs 35,000 people and spends nearly $5 billion a year. He will also lose his power to draw a dozen or more TV news cameras to his public events.

Yet Riordan has staked out a prime spot in California’s political landscape with his remarks about running for governor. In an interview, Riordan said he would make a final decision by September.

“My Irish conscience tells me I should run for governor,” he said. “Now I have to bring my emotions and everything to coincide with my Irish Catholic conscience.”

He named education, health care and energy as the most important issues facing the state.

“These are the kinds of things that excite me,” he said.

Riordan came close to running for governor in 1998, but in the end said he preferred to stay focused on L.A. schools and lacked the “fire in the belly” that a campaign for governor requires. When asked last week whether he had the fire now, Riordan responded, “That’s something I’ve got to determine.”

“I was looking forward to playing golf,” he joked.

Riordan’s wife, Nancy Daly, strongly objected to his running for governor in 1998, but the mayor said she “isn’t so much against it” anymore.

Riordan has emerged as one of the strongest potential GOP challengers to Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat whose poll ratings have plummeted as California’s energy morass has deepened.

A Field Poll released Friday found that Riordan was the most popular GOP contender, running virtually even with Davis. Among registered voters, 43% favored Davis for reelection and 42% preferred Riordan, the poll found.

In Washington and Sacramento, Republicans are eager to reverse the party’s dismal fortunes in California. Democrats hold all but one statewide office, control both houses of the Legislature and dominate the state’s delegation to Congress.

State GOP Chairman Shawn Steel and other party leaders have tried to coax Riordan into the race, which so far boasts as its sole GOP entrant Secretary of State Bill Jones. A move is also afoot to solicit statements of support for Riordan among legislators, members of Congress and local elected officials.

According to Riordan, President Bush has also encouraged him to run, most recently when they met Tuesday in Los Angeles. The gist of what Bush told him, Riordan said, was that “it would be good for the country, good for California.”

High-Pressure Courtship ‘A Very Powerful Force’

Bill Carrick, the consultant who ran Riordan’s 1997 mayoral campaign, called the high-pressure courtship “a very powerful force” on the mayor.

“When you’re really the draft choice of the Republican Party--you’re the guy they want and nobody else comes close--that’s an incredible amount of pressure that’s brought to bear on you,” Carrick said.

GOP leaders see Riordan’s political profile as a winning formula. He is relatively well known to voters statewide and has a strong base of support in Los Angeles that includes many Democrats and Latinos. Riordan also has the capacity to raise money quickly, along with a multimillion-dollar personal fortune that he could tap for the race.

He would, however, be confronted with incumbent Davis, who, despite his current troubles, has banked $27 million so far for his reelection bid and who, unlike Riordan, has successfully run in five statewide races.

Several of the state’s top Republicans voiced doubts about Riordan’s interest, saying his imminent loss of center stage in L.A. politics seemed to be the driving force behind his talk of running for governor.

“His political mortality, he’s starting to feel it,” said one state GOP leader. “The stories are about [mayoral candidate James K.] Hahn and Villaraigosa.”

Thomas F. Stephenson, the California Republican Party’s chief fund-raiser, said that when he spoke to Riordan about running for governor, the mayor left a clear impression that he would decline.

“I think Dick feels that he has made his major commitment to society as the mayor of Los Angeles and has done his public service,” said Stephenson, a Silicon Valley financier. “I don’t think he or his wife are crazy about the idea of living in Sacramento--or all that goes with being governor.”

Riordan, who is 71, plans to take a three-week vacation in France in July. At the invitation of champion bicyclist Lance Armstrong, the mayor will trail the Tour de France from village to village.

Riordan says in jest that he might join the ballet when he returns. In more serious moments, he says he will go back to his career as a lawyer and venture capitalist to make up for the money he lost by accepting only $1 a year of his mayoral salary.

The mayor’s closest associates say Riordan initially had no interest in running for governor but has warmed up to the idea.

“He’s very seriously considering it,” said Kelly Martin, his chief of staff.

His friend Eli Broad said Riordan was torn. The attraction for him, Broad said, would be the opportunity to make a big impact on education. “On the other hand, I’m not sure he really wants to go through a grueling campaign,” Broad said.

In political circles, some saw Riordan’s endorsement of Villaraigosa as a calculated move to boost his own support among Latinos in a gubernatorial race. But Broad, who led Villaraigosa’s effort to win Riordan’s support, said it was not a factor.

Riordan’s entrance would be complicated, however, for behind the scenes he has encouraged another wealthy Republican, Los Angeles investment banker William E. Simon, to run for governor. Simon’s campaign consultant, Sal Russo, said Riordan’s flirtation with a gubernatorial campaign of his own does not seem serious.

‘People Start to Ignore You’

“It’s helpful for people to think about him in that context, because one of the worst things in politics and government is to be a lame duck,” Russo said. “People start to ignore you. It’s always helpful at the end of your term for people to have some sense that you may not be done yet. It strengthens your power.”

If he declines to run, Riordan would still keep a high public profile. As a former mayor whose support crossed party boundaries, he would continue to draw candidates seeking his support. Given his substantial wealth, politicians from across the nation would also keep lining up at his doorstep for donations. Moreover, Riordan’s plan to continue working to improve the L.A. school system could keep him in the media spotlight.

But nothing would enhance Riordan’s presence on the national political scene as much as a race for governor in the midst of the energy mess that has weakened Davis. To some campaign analysts outside the mayor’s circle, it seems hard to imagine that Riordan is ready to end his political career.

“Now that he’s tasted eight years of this stuff, you want him to go into semiretirement?” veteran L.A. campaign consultant Joe Cerrell said. “I just don’t see him fading into the sunset.”