Villaraigosa Lets Others Court Latinos

On paper, there is at least one group whose overwhelming support Antonio Villaraigosa should be able to rely upon in his bid to become mayor of Los Angeles.

As a candidate who could become the city’s first Latino chief executive in modern times, the former Assembly speaker seems destined to be lifted by the enthusiasm of Latino voters eager to make history.

But in his race against City Atty. James K. Hahn, Villaraigosa has left the job of courting Latinos mostly to others in his campaign, forgoing Spanish-language media commercials and holding few public events on the Eastside and in other predominantly Latino communities.

That is the result of a conscious decision by the Villaraigosa campaign to emphasize his cross-ethnic appeal. But some observers wonder whether those moves have affected his ability to stimulate his base.

A survey of about a dozen politically active Latino leaders and organizers in recent days revealed a growing sense of anxiety about Villaraigosa’s standing with Latinos, particularly older members of the community.

“I am very, very concerned,” said one aide to a local elected Latino official, one of several people interviewed who spoke only on the condition that they not be identified by name. “If you’re ignored, you’re going to feel that way. Latinos are like every other constituent group. You’ve got to keep on them, with repetition.”

With a tight race heading into Tuesday’s election, some fear that Villaraigosa’s base may be softer--and smaller--than he has assumed. A recent Times poll found that only 57% of likely Latino voters say they’ll vote for him, down 5 points from the April 10 election. His campaign advisors, saying Villaraigosa has fought hard for Latino support, dispute the Times poll and insist that he will carry more than 70% of the Latino vote. But others are not so sure.

“He has avoided at all costs any calls for Latino political power or any appeals to his ethnic group,” said Sergio Bendixen, a Miami-based pollster of Latinos who has been in Los Angeles in recent days analyzing the race. “And I think that has had the impact that the Latino community may not be as enthusiastic and as energized as I have seen it on other occasions.”

Villaraigosa has consistently talked about his candidacy in inclusive terms and has bristled at being labeled a “Latino candidate.” He has spent much of the campaign aggressively pursuing support from moderate and conservative whites, Jews and African Americans, among others.

He frequently talks about how his story represents “the American dream.” In fact, the American flag is on prominent display during Villaraigosa’s events--down to the miniature Stars and Stripes toothpicks on hors d’oeuvres at a reception this week at Union Station.

Political observers agree that casting himself as a coalition-builder and avoiding dwelling on his ethnicity was the most effective way for Villaraigosa to expand his appeal and convince Angelenos that he would be a mayor for everyone.

“I think what the campaign is doing is really looking at what it’s going to take to win,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Assn. of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, or NALEO. “They’re being very measured, and they don’t want him to be perceived as a candidate for just Latinos. . . . Maybe that is an added layer of burden on the Villaraigosa candidacy.”

Groups Hope to Boost Latino Turnout

But in shying away from addressing the ethnic pride around his candidacy, some say, Villaraigosa may have curtailed his ability to shore up Latino support--the very support that many assume could help sweep him into office.

“I think they are afraid of getting the backlash of being too Latino,” said Antonio Gonzalez, president of the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project. “In a way, they’re in a Catch-22 situation.”

Gonzalez said he is confident that support for Villaraigosa remains high among Latino voters, and predicted that the candidate will get about three-quarters of those voters on Tuesday. Southwest Voter and NALEO, along with other groups, are running get-out-the-vote campaigns to encourage Latino participation, without advocating for either Villaraigosa or Hahn. They hope to boost Latino turnout from April’s 21% of the electorate to 25%--about 150,000 votes.

Gonzalez and others maintain, however, that Latino turnout could have been higher had the Villaraigosa campaign courted those voters more.

Villaraigosa advisors insist that the campaign has not ignored Latino voters. A field office has been up and running in Boyle Heights since April, and Spanish-speaking phone bankers have been calling voters since the runoff election began, according to campaign consultant Parke Skelton.

In addition, surrogates such as Rep. Hilda Solis (D-El Monte), former U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Henry Cisneros, county Supervisor Gloria Molina and Assemblyman Gil Cedillo (D-Los Angeles) have made frequent appearances at Latino events on behalf of Villaraigosa in the last month.

This weekend, hundreds of volunteers will hit the streets of the Eastside, South Los Angeles, Pico-Union, San Pedro and Pacoima, visiting thousands of Latino homes. Those households will also receive several pieces of mail in the next few days and additional phone calls urging them to go to the polls.

“It’s just not a sustainable proposition that we’re not actively and aggressively campaigning for Latino votes,” Skelton said. “We’re not neglecting our base. We will do extremely well in the Latino community.”

“Our task there is turnout, it’s not persuasion,” he added.

But the consensus among many Latino politicos is that so far, the campaign’s ground effort has been minimal. Many say that Villaraigosa appears to be relying on the Democratic Party and organized labor to reach Latino voters during their membership get-out-the-vote efforts.

“I think it’s a big mistake,” said one veteran Latino political observer who did not want to be identified. “They’re going to need to jack up turnout, big time, of their base. They’re getting killed right now on the swing vote, so you have to turn out more of the loyalists. But they don’t have the mechanism to do it.”

The Villaraigosa campaign is counting on the assumption that Latino voters already favor their candidate, a key factor in the campaign’s decision not to advertise on Spanish-language television or radio.

“It’s primarily a resource allocation issue,” Skelton said. “You have to make choices. The persuadable voters are not watching Spanish-language TV.”

But according to experts on Latino voting, a bulk of the almost threefold increase in the city’s Latino voters in the last eight years has come from new immigrants who prefer Spanish to English.

“I do think it is a little bit strange, that in something that many people are designating as a historic opportunity for the Latino community, something that could be so significant to the overall political development of Hispanics in the United States, there have been no Spanish-language ads,” Bendixen said. “It’s a little bit ironic.”

Villaraigosa’s absence from the Spanish-language airwaves, at least in commercials, has exacerbated a dissatisfaction among some Latinos, particularly older ones, who say he has not been working for their vote, Eastside activists report.

Generational Divide Among Latinos

Some people complain that Villaraigosa has been spending too much time on the Westside courting donors, and expressed disappointment that, during a recent debate with Hahn broadcast on Spanish-language media, the City Terrace native chose to speak in English.

In fact, the Times poll showed a sharp generational divide among Latinos, with those under 45 strongly backing Villaraigosa and voters over 45 divided between the candidates.

Some speculate that older Latinos, predominantly cultural conservatives, balk at Villaraigosa’s liberal stances and his apparent ambivalence about his Catholicism.

In a recent set of interviews with The Times, Villaraigosa discussed the role of Catholicism in his upbringing, but also expressed his discomfort with some teachings of the church--including its positions on abortion and exclusion of women from the priesthood. He described himself as more comfortable, in some respects, with the tenets of Judaism.

Older voters in general often cite public safety as an important issue for them, and there, too, Villaraigosa may be suffering in comparison with Hahn, who has consistently tried to strike a harder line than his rival. Hahn has picked up the endorsements of a few Latino leaders--City Councilmen Nick Pacheco and Alex Padilla, for instance, as well as state Sen. Richard Polanco (D-Los Angeles)--and the city attorney’s advisors believe that he is well positioned to pick up some support among older, more conservative Latino voters.

Mayor Richard Riordan, a Catholic who has emphasized public safety and public schools through his two terms, has enjoyed strong support among Latinos, especially older ones.

Others say that Latinos will not automatically gravitate to Villaraigosa just because of the potential political import of his victory. A conglomeration of diverse communities, Los Angeles Latinos have matured politically in the last several decades, winning significant seats at the local, state and national levels.

Some experts say that progress may leave Latinos less anxious about the need to elect one of their own as mayor now--and more convinced that such a breakthrough is only a matter of time.

“We’ve gotten good people of Latino heritage and surnames serving us in a number of different positions already,” said James Acevedo, a Hahn consultant and veteran field organizer. “It’s not just about electing somebody with a Spanish surname. It’s about electing someone who is going to serve the Latino community.”

Indeed, some voters reached last week said they are impressed with both candidates. Abraham Cueva, 63, a voter polled by the times, said that, while he likes Villaraigosa, he thinks the city attorney “has more experience.”

But those who support the former legislator insist that there is no question that Latinos overwhelmingly back Villaraigosa, and dismiss any notion that he has neglected his base.

“I don’t think he’s taking it for granted,” said Eastside resident Mireya Gutierrez, 39, who has helped organize fund-raisers for Villaraigosa. “It’s just a very tight community. We love him to death.”

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Times staff writer Patrick McDonnell contributed to this story.

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