Best Bet to Dump Davis? None Other Than Republican Centrist Riordan

No question about it: Of the three Republicans taking pre-race warmups, L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan is the best bet to beat Gov. Gray Davis next year.

But first Riordan has to step up and actually run. And nobody’s taking bets on that.

The two other contenders can be handicapped very simply:

* Bill Jones has been an excellent secretary of state. But he isn’t exciting anybody. Moreover, President Bush, White House strategists and many California donors still have not forgiven Jones for reneging on his endorsement last year and defecting to Arizona Sen. John McCain. The White House is talking up Riordan and, consequently, making it even tougher than usual for Jones to raise campaign money.

* The third aspirant, super-rich political novice Bill Simon, needs to get much more up to speed before he even belongs on the same track.

A recent statewide survey by the independent Field Poll found the L.A. mayor running far ahead in a hypothetical GOP primary: Riordan 40%, Jones 18%, Simon 7%.

In a general election matchup, Riordan and Davis were virtually tied: Davis 43%, Riordan 42%. Davis led Jones by 14% and Simon by 17%.

Riordan’s political assets:

* He’s a moderate--a rare Republican supporter of abortion rights, gay rights and gun controls--who can attract Democrats and independents.

* The former venture capitalist, one insider says, is worth well over $300 million and could finance his own $50-million campaign. But he also has the ability--especially with winks from Bush--to raise private donations.

* He already has invaluable statewide name ID.

But Riordan has been out there pawing at the track before. In 1998, he trotted right up to the starting gate and backed out.

In fact, only a few weeks ago, the lame-duck mayor was privately telling people that although he enjoyed all the speculation, he definitely was not going to run. Now he says, “I’m seriously looking into the possibility of running.”

So what’s changed?

* We’re all human. When the president called Riordan on his 71st birthday May 1 and encouraged him to run, that’s heady stuff. Versions vary about what actually was said, but it was enough to get Riordan thinking.

* That Field poll was an eye-opener.

* In 1998, Riordan’s future wife, Nancy Daly, objected to his running. This time, she’d be supportive. For one thing, she’s an activist on behalf of foster children and adoption programs. Somebody reminded her that the best way to get more state money for these causes is to be married to the governor.

* Political mortality approaches. Riordan’s mayoral term expires June 30. In 1998, he was immersed in a job he loved. Now he’d love to find another.

* There’s a leadership vacuum in Sacramento, he asserts. Not only on energy, but in health care--”a problem that’s going to be bigger even than energy.” Since 1998, Riordan says, he has become much more aware of a governor’s power.

“But there are numerous things I have to look into before I finally make a decision,” he adds.

“I have to go up and down the state. Understand the problems of farmers, of manufacturers in Silicon Valley, of wine growers in the Napa Valley, fishermen. Sort of see if I click with a lot of these people.”

Does Riordan have that “fire in the belly” needed to run a grueling race for governor in California? To fly not just to San Francisco, but on up to the Redding Rotary, changing planes twice.

“He doesn’t, or he wouldn’t be thinking it over,” says Assembly GOP Leader Dave Cox of Sacramento County, a Jones supporter. “If he needs a couple of months to decide, that’s an indication he won’t run.”

But Arnold Steinberg, a Republican strategist and longtime Riordan ally, says if the mayor does run, “he’ll act like he’s 22 hustling for his first job.” When Riordan has confidence in his advisors, Steinberg says, “he’ll do triple somersaults.”

One problem for any Republican candidate is that business leaders--traditional GOP bankrollers--have developed a comfortable relationship with Davis. But Republican strategist Ken Khachigian says, “If Davis looks the least bit vulnerable, they’ll turn on him like a mongoose on a cobra.”

Also, Riordan has a checkered party past. He has endorsed Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein twice and, in 1982, was a key financier of then-Mayor Tom Bradley’s losing gubernatorial race against Republican George Deukmejian.

My guess, however, is that Republican voters will be so eager to dump Davis by next year that they’d back their best bet, Riordan.

The California GOP could use a healthy injection of centrist Riordan Republicanism.