Dodgers Could Go From Decimated to Decimals

Injuries have left the roster and rotation in disarray, the bullpen has been weakened by the necessity to move relievers into starting roles and the farm system is still incapable of providing substantive help. The Dodgers appear to be a train wreck waiting to happen, and the next six weeks could be critical in determining what track they follow.

Can they maintain their division and wild-card playoff hopes despite the injuries?

If not, would the July 31 trading deadline be the right time to take a step back and reload for the future by dealing one or more of their players with major contracts for prospects?

Would Chairman Bob Daly have the courage to authorize that kind of significant step--trading, perhaps, Gary Sheffield after ultimately rejecting that move during a tumultuous spring--and would interim General Manager Dave Wallace and new assistant Dan Evans have the experience to pull it off?

Or would Daly maintain the status quo during a meaningless August and September, leaving a new general manager--be it Wallace or Evans or John Hart or Billy Beane--to address the entire structure during the off-season?

In a division in which no team has a stranglehold after the first third of the season, the Dodgers may be capable of surviving, but the issues they face go beyond the congested trainer’s room.

Compounded by unconfirmed but continuing rumors that Fox is willing to sell, the Dodgers remain a work in progress at the management level.

Tensions have eased and communications have improved since the firing--rather resignation--of former general manager Kevin Malone, but it is difficult to know how much power the chairman is willing to cede or whether he would commit to officially forfeiting the final two months with a major transaction that could replenish the organization’s young talent.

Two-plus years since the hiring of Malone and three since Rupert Murdoch’s purchase, the farm system’s upper levels remain a halfway house for fringe major leaguers such as Jeff Branson and Phil Hiatt, veterans holding on instead of young players moving up.

It is impossible, of course, to rebuild a farm system overnight and difficult to do only through the draft, particularly while signing top-ranked free agents who carry the price of high draft choices as compensation to the club that lost the free agents.

A three-for-one deal with a contending club at the deadline could be an attractive elixir for 2002 and beyond.

Of course, the $110-million Dodger payroll is burdened with inflexible contracts difficult to trade. Sheffield is no exception, considering that he has a limited no-trade clause, is owed $33 million more through his 2004 option year and might have scared off potential suitors by dissing Daly and the Dodgers last spring.

However, he carries a big-time bat and there are several playoff-caliber clubs--the Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs--looking for a hitter.

Said an American League general manager, “This is the first time in my six years in this job that more clubs seem to be interested in hitting than pitching.”

The market will heat up as July 31 approaches. It is impossible to predict where the Dodgers will be then, but one thing is certain: The pitching that was expected to provide a foundation requires retrofitting.

The Dodgers are paying Kevin Brown, Andy Ashby, Darren Dreifort and Chan Ho Park $39.4 million this year alone. But Ashby is out for the season, Brown is out indefinitely (a numbing thought, considering he is 36 and owed $60 million through 2005), Dreifort has failed to recapture the consistency and efficiency he showed in the second half of last season, and only Park, battling back problems, seems to be where he should be at 7-4 with a 2.75 earned-run average. Even he, however, often throws more pitches than necessary, as illustrated by his six walks against the Angels last Saturday.

In addition, Eric Gagne is back in triple A, Luke Prokopec has been getting battered as teams get second and third looks at him, and the bullpen has been disrupted by the need to move Terry Adams and Giovanni Carrara into starting roles. Both have responded, but it is asking a lot to expect them to replace Brown and Ashby over an extended period. There is also fallout in another form.

If everything were in place with the pitching, the Dodgers might be in position to trade Park for prospects or a proven position player in July, getting out from under the likelihood of a record pitching contract that agent Scott Boras will pursue for Park, who will be a free agent next winter.

Now, however, with long-term uncertainty facing Brown and Ashby, and with Dreifort’s reconstructed elbow always a concern, the Dodgers cannot afford to trade Park, and there is no escaping the probability that Boras will have them over another financial barrel.

In fact, Boras’ role in all of this, and whatever course the Dodgers pursue, cannot be overlooked.

The omnipresent agent represents six key players on the 25-man roster--Brown, Sheffield, Park, Dreifort, Adrian Beltre and Chad Kreuter--and because of the tangled payroll web, with every player and contract affecting every other, the Dodgers have to be cautious how they deal with Boras and his clients.

Boras stepped in to quiet the Sheffield uproar in the spring after another agent had failed. At some point, he may figure the Dodgers owe him some payback in the form of the improved contract Sheffield was seeking when all of that started. An attempt by the Dodgers to trade Sheffield could result in an even harder Boras line when it comes to dealing with Park and Beltre, who retains complex arbitration rights as result of the multiyear deal he received after baseball ruled he had initially been signed improperly by the Dodgers.

In reality, should the Dodgers find themselves out of playoff contention in mid-July and interested in trading salary for prospects, the easier route for Daly and his interim management team might be dealing second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, who is owed $11 million over the next two years--including a $500,000 option buyout in 2004--and is batting .311, raising his stock with a solid season.

Of course, a sprained ankle has put Grudzielanek on the disabled list, where he has plenty of company as the decimated Dodgers ride the rails to a destination that may change en route.