Odds Unclear as Riordan Weighs Bid

As Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan contemplates a run for governor, he could sit down with a pencil and paper and list the pluses and minuses.

On the plus side: his high name recognition, access to plentiful cash and a history of attracting support from Democrats, independents and Latinos in two citywide races.

All those make Republican Riordan potentially a strong general election candidate against incumbent Democrat Gray Davis.

On the negative side: his age, lack of statewide campaign experience and the fact he’s done more over the years to help Democrats than to promote GOP candidates or causes.

All those could mean tough going in a Republican primary against opponents Bill Jones and William E. Simon Jr.

The bottom line: The 71-year-old Riordan could be a formidable candidate if he chooses to run. But he’s hardly the shoo-in his boosters suggest.

“He’s really entering a whole new world,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist who crossed party lines to help get Riordan elected to the nonpartisan mayor’s office.

“The very fact he has not been a partisan Republican makes him attractive” in a state that has become overwhelmingly Democratic, Carrick said. “But in so many other ways, it makes it difficult for him to operate as the leader of his party, which is decidedly more conservative than he is.”

Riordan, who leaves office at the end of June, has said he will decide on the governorship by September. For now, he appears to savor the speculation about his future.

At a political roast last week, he toyed with the idea of running for governor and needled Secretary of State Jones, who had just launched the first attack of the GOP primary by questioning Riordan’s Republican credentials.

‘Never Been in the Trenches’

“If any of you know who Bill Jones is, will you tell me who he is after dinner?” Riordan joshed.

But Jones’ criticism highlighted what may be Riordan’s greatest vulnerability. As Allan Hoffenblum, a veteran party strategist, put it: “He’s never been in the trenches. He never seemed to care much about the success of the California Republican Party until now [when] he thinks it might be a good idea to run for governor.”

As Jones pointed out, Riordan has contributed more than $1 million over the last 20 years to Democratic candidates and also backed Democrats over Republicans in several high-profile races. Riordan supporters minimize the significance of those actions.

“A very small number of activists will be upset,” said Kevin Spillane, a GOP strategist in Sacramento who has spearheaded efforts to coax Riordan into the race. “But campaign donations are not an issue the average voter cares about. They want to know what a candidate will do about energy, crime, education, health care and traffic congestion.”

Spillane has launched his draft-Riordan movement independent of the would-be candidate, though he keeps the mayor’s staff apprised. The men have never even met.

But if Riordan runs for governor, he will need a lot more new friends like Spillane. That’s because up to now, many of the mayor’s key advisors have been Democrats, who either won’t support his bid for governor--in Carrick’s case--or who sound lukewarm at best.

“I don’t think he should run,” said Eli Broad, one of Riordan’s confidants, who said choosing between the mayor and Davis “would be a difficult decision for me.”

The key question, of course, is whether Republicans rally behind Riordan--especially now that the U.S. Supreme Court has struck down California’s “blanket” primary. That means there will be no Democrats crossing over to vote Republican when the parties choose their nominees next March, making Riordan’s moderation less of a political asset.

If anything, his support for abortion rights and gun control might prove poisonous to the hard-core Republicans who tend to dominate GOP primaries.

“Can you imagine the conservative wing of the party supporting Mr. Riordan? I find it very difficult,” said Steve Frank, deputy political director for Simon’s campaign.

Should Riordan prevail in the primary, Frank predicted, many fellow conservatives would stay home in November 2002, costing Republicans not just the governor’s race but seats in the Legislature and Congress as well.

But Riordan backers argue precisely the opposite. They say that California Republicans--even staunch conservatives--are so tired of losing that they will swallow any differences over ideology to nominate someone with the best chance of peeling Democrats and independents away from Davis. “There’s a definite hunger for a winner out there,” Spillane said.

Riordan starts with several things going for him, at least on paper.

He is a household name in the state’s biggest and most costly media market. That alone could save millions of dollars that Jones and Simon will have to spend to become better known.

Then again, money is no object for the multimillionaire mayor, who pocketed a token $1-a-year salary during his eight years in office. He could easily match Davis’ campaign chest--now more than $30 million and climbing--thus negating one of the governor’s biggest advantages.

And unlike the succession of wealthy businessmen who have run for statewide office and flopped over the past few decades, Riordan has a proven record of achievement in major public office.

Selling that record, however, could be a challenge for a candidate who is not exactly the most energetic or gifted campaigner. Running statewide for the first time, Riordan would face a steep learning curve and far more scrutiny than he got as mayor. As the front-runner, any early stumbles or controversies would be greatly magnified.

“Stylistically, to quote Lerner and Loew, we’ve grown accustomed to his face here in L.A.,” Carrick said. “We know he’s a good mayor and feel positive about him. So if there’s a misstatement, it’s treated with a sort of benign neglect by both the media and populace at large.

“But when you run statewide, you can’t be calling people ‘poverty pimps’ “--to cite one recent Riordan aside--”without paying a significant price.”

‘Just Another Medal on the Jacket?’

There is also the matter of Riordan’s age. He appears to be a healthy 71. But his interest in the mayor’s job seemed to waiver at times during his second term. Privately, even supporters express concerns about just how hard the famously easygoing Riordan would be willing to work to get elected.

“Is it just another medal on the jacket, or is it something he’d take an active leadership role in?” wondered Ken Khachigian, a GOP strategist who is neutral in the Republican race.

Some hope the field will clear if Riordan decides to run, sparing the GOP the bitterness and expense of a contested primary. The White House has made no secret of its preference for a Riordan-Davis matchup, which could give the mayor a big boost.

But others say a vigorous primary would be good for both Riordan and the Republican Party. “It would prove that he can go out and do battle and that he really wants the job,” said Hoffenblum, the GOP strategist. “Besides, if he can’t beat Bill Jones or Bill Simon, how can he beat Gray Davis?”

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Times staff writer Michael Finnegan contributed to this story.