Public Supports Bush, Is Divided on His Tax Cut Plan

President Bush is building substantial public support for many of his top proposals, though Americans still prefer the Democratic alternative on the key issue of taxes, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Despite growing anxiety about the economy, Americans give Bush high marks for his early job performance--and say they like him personally as well. Such Bush priorities as building a missile defense shield, reforming federal education programs and increasing cooperation between Washington and religious charities all draw support from significant majorities of the public, the survey found.

But the ground is far more contested on Bush’s tax cut--the issue that heads the new administration’s priority list. Although a narrow majority of Americans now says it would support Bush’s proposed $1.6-trillion tax cut, nearly half believe it would not help them personally and a clear majority worries that the plan could throw the federal budget back into deficit.

Reflecting those concerns, Americans--by a solid 55% to 30% majority--say they would prefer the alternative Democratic approach, which would cut taxes less and use more of the anticipated federal surplus to pay down the national debt and fund domestic programs.

These findings suggest that, although Bush has moved public opinion in his direction on many issues since the 2000 campaign, most Americans remain stubbornly unconvinced that a tax cut should take precedence as Washington allocates the federal government’s massive anticipated surpluses.

“That’s the way it has been all along,” said Stanford University political scientist Morris P. Fiorina. “This is just one of the cases where the public has its mind made up.”

The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,449 adults nationwide from Saturday through Monday; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The poll shows that Bush is settling into office amid a climate of broadening unease about the economy. The share of Americans who think the economy is doing poorly has fully doubled (to 34%) just since December. Also, 3 in 10 Americans now say their personal finances are shaky.

Yet amid such anxieties, the poll finds Americans with few complaints, and much to praise, about Bush’s first weeks on the job. Overall, 62% of Americans approve of his job performance, with just 18% disapproving--a showing slightly better than former Presidents Clinton, Reagan and George Bush, the new president’s father, achieved at a comparable point. At this juncture, two-thirds of Americans also say they have a favorable personal impression of Bush.

Many Approve of His Cabinet, Candor

Americans give the president good grades for his Cabinet appointees: two-thirds say they approve of his choices and nearly three-fifths say the selections uphold Bush’s promise to “be a president who unites the country.”

Americans give Bush credit for candor: A solid majority says that Bush has provided a clear idea of where he wants to lead the country. They consider him his own man: Only about 1 in 6 thinks he relies too heavily on Vice President Dick Cheney. And, so far, Democrats have had only muted success at portraying the president as a servant of the wealthy: 39% of Americans believe that Bush cares most about rich people, 43% say he cares about all classes equally and 9% believe his top concern is the poor or the middle class.

To some extent, Bush may be benefiting from a comparison with Clinton, who has found himself surrounded by controversy stemming from pardons he issued before leaving office. The survey finds Americans characteristically ambivalent in their assessment of Clinton. His personal standing has deteriorated: 52% of Americans now say they view him unfavorably (up from 42% in a Times Poll in November). But nearly two-thirds still say they believe he did a good job as president.

Clinton’s eleventh-hour pardons draw a skeptical, though not infuriated, response. Four in 10 Americans believe Clinton delivered his pardons “in return for favors and contributions,” though a larger number (48%) think he based his decisions both on political calculations and the cases’ merits.

When reminded of other controversial presidential pardons (like President Ford’s pardon of Richard Nixon), Americans divided evenly on whether Clinton’s decisions were worse, or about the same, as his predecessors’. About 1 in 20 thought Clinton made better decisions.

On the policy front, the poll found Americans want the new president to compromise--just as they wanted the last president to compromise. Nearly two-thirds say that after losing the popular vote last fall to Democrat Al Gore, Bush should “work to compromise with Democrats” on his key issues, while just 27% believe he has a mandate to steamroll his ideas through Congress.

But even so, the good feeling toward Bush spills over into key elements of his agenda. By 2 to 1, Americans believe Bush is likely to significantly improve the nation’s education system. After being read a description of Bush’s education reform agenda--which would provide states increased flexibility in spending federal money but require them to stiffen their systems for measuring student achievement--a head-turning 80% of Americans (including nearly three-fourths of Democrats) said they support it.

Majorities Back Many, Not All, Agenda Items

Other elements of Bush’s agenda draw substantial, if not quite such lopsided, support. Nearly three-fifths back his plan to build a high-tech defense shield against intercontinental missile attacks. Nearly two-thirds (including a substantial majority of Democrats) like his idea to increase cooperation between government and religious-based charities. Less emphatically, a 44% to 38% plurality says it supports Bush’s call to significantly slow the growth in federal domestic spending.

But on the most ideological elements of Bush’s agenda--those proposals aimed most precisely at his Republican base--he’s made much less progress at building consensus.

Take Social Security reform. Americans begin with a baseline of optimism about Bush’s prospects of bolstering Social Security and Medicare: A clear plurality says it is optimistic he’ll strengthen both programs. And he draws a strongly positive initial reaction to his proposal to allow workers to divert part of their payroll taxes into individual accounts they could invest in the stock market for their retirement. Nearly three-fifths of Americans say they support that idea.

But when told that establishing such accounts would require a reduction in Social Security’s guaranteed benefit, support shrivels; nearly 4 in 10 of those who initially supported individual accounts say they would oppose them under those circumstances. In all, only one-third of Americans say they would support individual accounts whether or not it means benefit reductions.

Opinion on Vouchers Closely Divided

Probing the details of the education issue shows a similar pattern. Despite the overwhelming support for Bush’s broad agenda, opinion is more closely divided on his plan’s most controversial element: vouchers. Bush wants to provide low-income parents whose children attend poorly performing public schools with federally funded vouchers they could use for after-school tutoring or to pay private school tuition; Senate Democrats have countered with a plan that would provide vouchers only for after-school services. Those polled split almost evenly, with a slight 46% to 42% plurality preferring the Democratic approach.

Despite concerns about energy supplies, Bush has yet to make his case to open Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration: 47% of Americans support the idea, while 45% oppose it.

His move to block federal funding for international planning organizations that provide any type of abortion counseling or service draws an equally conflicted response, with 46% opposing and 45% supporting him.

But it may be the tax debate--the main event in Congress this spring--that best illuminates both the successes and limits of Bush’s drive to build public support for his agenda.

Amid a sustained presidential selling campaign, 52% of Americans now say they support Bush’s proposed tax cut, with just 40% opposing. But that sentiment rests uneasily on a foundation of skepticism about Bush’s arguments for the plan. Bush says the plan would proportionally benefit the working class more than the rich; but a majority of Americans believes the proposal would help the rich most. Fully 48% of those surveyed say they don’t expect that the tax cut would put any money in their pockets. On both questions, voters earning $40,000 a year or less are far more skeptical than the affluent that the Bush plan will help them.

And despite Bush’s promises that the anticipated surplus is large enough to safely accommodate the tax cut, a solid 58% of Americans believe the plan risks toppling the federal budget back into deficit. A majority of Americans at every income level--and even nearly 40% of partisan Republicans--shares that fear.

Nor is there a consensus that a tax cut would jump-start the economy: 43% of Americans think it would help, but a roughly equal number think it would either hurt or have no effect.

Broad Range of Voters Favors Democrats’ Plan

This is another issue where calculations of self-interest may shape assessments of the national interest: Americans earning more than $40,000 a year--those most likely to believe they will personally benefit from the tax cut--are also more likely to believe it would help the economy.

All these doubts about the Bush proposal help explain the solid 55% support for the Democratic alternative of a smaller tax cut that would leave more money for both new spending and debt reduction. Voters at every income level favor the Democratic approach (though the margin drops among the most affluent); even nearly one-third of Republicans prefer it. By contrast, only about 1 in 8 Democrats prefers Bush’s blueprint.

Whichever plan they prefer, few Americans place tax cuts atop their wish list. Asked which issues should be Bush’s top priority, more than 1 in 4 picked education; just under 1 in 6 cited tax cuts.

Even Republicans placed a higher priority on education than tax cuts, which suggests the challenge Bush faces in heightening public pressure on lawmakers resisting his plan.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Views on the Presidency

* President George W. Bush’s job approval rating:

Approve: 62%

Disapprove: 18%

Don’t know: 20%

*

* Former President George Bush’s job approval rating in March 1989:

Approve: 59%

Disapprove: 13%

Don’t know: 28%

*

* Will President Bush’s policies make the country’s economy stronger or weaker over the next four years, or will the economy remain about where it is today?

Stronger: 33%

*

Weaker: 22%

Remain the same: 33%

Don’t know: 12%

*

* What is your impression of...

*--*

Favorable Unfavorable Don’t know George W. Bush 68% 22 10 Dick Cheney 46% 8 46

*--*

*

* Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton handled his job as president?

Approve: 64%

Disapprove: 35%

Don’t know: 1%

*

* What is your impression of Bill Clinton?

Favorable: 45%

Unfavorable: 52%

Don’t know: 3%

*

* As a president, how will he go down in history?

*

*--*

Now Jan. 1993 Jan. 1989* Jan. 1981* Jan. 1976* inton Bush Sr. Reagan Carter Ford Outstanding/ Above average 39% 38% 59% 14% 25% Average 19 23 14 46 21 Below average/Poor 38 23 14 46 21 Don’t know 4 1 2 3 4

*--*

* Gallup polls

*

* Do you think Clinton’s controversial pardons were based solely on the merits of the cases, or do you think they were made in return for favors and contributions, or do you think it was a combination of both? (Asked of those who have heard about the pardons controversy)

Merits: 5%

Favors/Contributions: 40%

Both: 48%

Don’t know: 7%

*

Note: Results shown are for U.S. adults. *

Source:a L.A. Times Poll and Gallup Organization

*

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,449 adults nationwide, by telephone Saturday through Monday. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. *

*

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll