State Sees Light in Blackout Picture

Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham’s prediction that summer blackouts are inevitable is a bit gloomier than forecasts by state officials, who are betting California will squeak through the hot months with no outages.

While conceding that power supplies will be tight, two state assessments predict that California will overcome a shortage that would trigger rolling blackouts--and might even enjoy a slight cushion of surplus power.

Those forecasts, however, assume that an assortment of measures will reduce energy demand--among them, widespread conservation and the replacement of wasteful lights and appliances. The predictions also are built on expectations that new power plants will be up and running by July.

“Yes, we’ve made assumptions, but we’ve also been very conservative in our estimates,” said Assemblywoman Jackie Goldberg (D-Los Angeles), a leader of legislative efforts to prepare for summer. “But could something go wrong? Of course. There are no guarantees.”

Indeed, all sides acknowledge that gauging the summer energy picture 100 days away is an iffy science at best, influenced by wild cards like weather, power plant malfunctions and supply glitches.

“We’re trying to determine the risk of blackouts this summer, but the problem is, we don’t know,” Assemblyman Keith Richman (R-Northridge) said.

To reduce the guesswork, state officials are toiling feverishly to chart potential scenarios for the summer so that legislators can respond with appropriate urgency.

At a Wednesday hearing, legislators discussed their first two forecasts. The first comes from the California Energy Commission, which has estimated that there will be no shortage of power in California this summer. The second opinion comes from nonpartisan legislative analyst Elizabeth G. Hill.

Hill’s conclusion was similar to the commission’s, although somewhat less optimistic. She said the state faces a greater strain than that anticipated by the commission during “peak load” times, or when demand would be highest.

If summer temperatures are average, Hill predicted a shortfall of about 3,918 megawatts on July 1, enough electricity to supply about 4 million homes. But with conservation and new plants coming online, the state should overcome the power deficit and, in fact, create a slight summer surplus, Hill said.

Even assuming a hot summer--a “once every 10 years” sizzler--Hill predicts a modest surplus.

Despite such optimism, the report cautions that its findings are based on estimates about outside power sources--estimates that could change for the worse.

Much of California’s summer juice, for example, comes from Northwest hydroelectric plants. But in Washington state Wednesday, Gov. Gary Locke declared a drought. Snowpack levels there are about half of normal, and there are record low flows in major rivers.

“Hope there isn’t a heat wave,” said Locke’s spokeswoman Dana Middleton. “When it comes time to send [electricity] your way, it is going to be dicey.”

Electricity generators say such factors make it unwise to bank on a blackout-free summer.

“I don’t know why people persist in putting sugar on a situation that is quite dire,” said Gary Ackerman of the Western Power Trading Forum, a group of energy generators and marketers. “I think being frank and honest about the situation is the best approach.”

State Sen. Debra Bowen (D-Marina del Rey), who heads the Senate Energy Committee and is one of the most energy-savvy legislators, says that she isn’t taking anything for granted. On Thursday, Bowen held a hearing to question bureaucrats about their progress on conservation projects--and at times expressed mild impatience with the pace of preparations for the looming summer surge.

“All of the updates that we get on supply get worse. I don’t see any update where things get better,” Bowen groaned. As for summer, she added, “I don’t remember ever having been so profoundly worried about anything before.”

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Times staff writer Dan Morain contributed to this story.