Airport Consultants Dispute Approach to Study on Growth

Consultants for Burbank Airport have forecast slower passenger growth over the next 15 years than had been predicted, saying the regional airport will not take major overflow from crowded Los Angeles International Airport.

The draft report, made public Wednesday, openly disputes the approach taken in a controversial plan adopted by the Southern California Assn. of Governments last month. That plan is based on forecasts that twice as many passengers will use Burbank Airport by 2025.

Under the association’s forecast, which assumed that LAX would be limited to 78 million passengers a year, flight demand shifting to Burbank would double traffic there to 9.4 million passengers in the next 25 years.

By contrast, airport consultants predict an increase to 7.2 million passengers by 2015, a 53% increase over last year. The report does not assume that a controversial new 14-gate terminal will be built, and does not assume any cap on passengers at LAX.

“The vision of our future is very modest growth tied to the demographics of the region,” said Dios Marrero, airport executive director.

City officials have demanded a curfew on night flights before they will agree to construction of a terminal long sought by airport management.

Growth, he said, will be fed primarily by consumer demand, which increases with population and the creation of more white-collar jobs in the region.

Burbank City Councilwoman Stacey Murphy said she thinks the forecast for 7.2 million passengers is still too high for the existing terminal. But she said it should support the need for flight restrictions being sought by the council.

“The numbers reaffirm why we need noise constraints and constraints on passengers or flights,” said Murphy, who also sits on the regional council of the Southern California Assn. of Governments.

The report, prepared by Landrum & Brown for the Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena Airport Authority, is part of a request to the Federal Aviation Administration for a 10 p.m.-to-7 a.m. curfew. The study looks at the effect of potential unconstrained growth over 15 years.

In a second phase of the study, consultants will determine the economic effect of proposed noise and operational restrictions on the airport, said airport spokesman Victor Gill.

The airport consultants said their approach is “fundamentally different” from the association’s. Theirs tries “to determine a ‘fair’ allocation of passengers to Los Angeles region airports based on potential environmental impacts,” the report said.

The new forecast looks at such market forces as the kinds of airline services offered, existing constraints such as the voluntary nighttime curfew and short runway, and projected population growth within 25 miles of the airport.

“What we are finding out is that we are becoming a much more mature market,” Marrero said, noting that the number of passengers served at Burbank Airport has remained steady at 4.7 million since 1997, despite higher projections.

Ten years ago, the airport’s environmental impact study for a new, larger terminal projected 10 million passengers by 2010, a figure airport officials now concede is unrealistic.

The consultants noted in the report Wednesday that a new terminal doesn’t always mean more business. Despite having opened a larger terminal in September 1998, Ontario Airport has been unable to attract more passengers, they said.

“The lack of growth at Burbank and Ontario reflects the different roles these airports play in meeting the air transportation needs of the region,” the report stated.

The report suggested that overflow business from LAX is more likely to go to John Wayne Airport in Orange County or Ontario Airport because they offer direct flights to the East Coast and other long-distance routes. Most of Burbank’s flights are within 500 miles.

In all, the report projected Burbank Airport will offer an additional 31 daily round-trip flights in 2015.

Of those commercial flights, an average of one more will be flying at night in Burbank, the study said, increasing to six the average number of night flights in 2015.

Although the focus has been on commercial flights, the report also projected more than twice as many private flights. They are forecast to increase from 11,527 in 1999 to 26,062 in 2015. About 10% of the private flights fly at night.