2 Koreas’ Embrace of Europe Puts U.S. on Notice

With frustration mounting in the two Koreas over the Bush administration’s slow pace in crafting a North Korea policy and apparent reluctance to negotiate with the Stalinist regime, Seoul and Pyongyang sent a not-so-subtle message to Washington this week: If you’re not willing to provide diplomatic leadership, we’ll ask Europe to pick up some of the slack.

Goran Persson, Sweden’s prime minister and president of the European Union, arrived in North Korea on Wednesday for a rare visit by a Western leader. A day later, he left for Seoul bearing a promise from the Communist regime that it would extend a moratorium on missile testing until 2003 and consider opening a dialogue with the EU on human rights.

“The message was: The U.S. is not the only door North Korea can use to enter the international community,” said Park Jai Chang, a North Korea expert at Sook Myong Women’s University in Seoul.

The North’s apparent willingness to limit its weapons buildup was welcomed by analysts as a step in the right direction and a change from its recent saber rattling. Whether it is enough to reinvigorate a North-South reconciliation process recently described as “comatose” is another question.

Many members of the Bush administration advocate a slower pace for South Korean President Kim Dae Jung’s “sunshine policy” of engagement with the North, a view shared by a growing number of voters who feel that Kim has given away too much.

“The Europeans did some very nice resuscitation work,” said Scott Snyder, Seoul-based representative of the Asia Foundation. “But the patient still needs to be put in an ambulance and taken to the hospital.”

Adding to the mix are very different U.S. and South Korean timetables. The Bush administration has at least four years ahead of it amid concerns that any policy involving North Korea should be able to outlast the Kim administration.

Kim, on the other hand, faces two national elections next year and a presidency flying on a single policy engine as he rapidly enters the lame-duck phase. His sunshine policy, which last year earned him the Nobel Peace Prize, represents the only potential bright spot at a time when domestic reforms are stalled, the economy is in a tailspin and his political opponents are growing stronger by the day.

A humiliating defeat suffered last week by Kim’s ruling Millennium Democratic Party in a local Seoul by-election makes it eminently clear how much he needs some forward momentum with North Korea to prevent the erosion of his once-proud legacy.

From this perspective, the last three months spent waiting for the Bush administration to put a Korea team in place, formulate policy and decide whether to pursue confrontation, containment or engagement with the North seem like an eternity.

In the take-no-prisoners world of South Korean domestic politics, Kim’s setbacks represent gains for the conservative opposition Grand National Party. “We’re really suspicious of D. J.’s [Kim’s] true intent,” said Park Won Hong, a GNP lawmaker. “We’ve been giving too much without getting something back.”

The need to get something back also has struck a chord with voters. Although surveys still show that more than 70% of respondents favor continued engagement with North Korea and a further reduction in military tension, most want limits on South Korean generosity and aid, particularly given the increasingly wobbly economy.

“I think a cooling-off period is necessary,” said Lee Hak Min, the 49-year-old owner of a package delivery service, who has an older sister in North Korea. “We’ve been dealing too hastily with North Korea, so in that sense Bush may be a good influence.”

That said, the longer the Bush administration waits to formulate its North Korea policy, the greater the concern across the South Korean political spectrum that a slowdown could turn into a permanent policy of neglect or, even worse, a preference for outright confrontation with the Communist regime. And that’s a step most would not welcome.

“It’s understandable to demand results,” said Lee Jong Suk, a fellow at the Sejong Institute. “But to get those results, you need to start negotiating. The Bush administration hasn’t been doing that, and that’s what we can’t understand.”

Ultimately, a key problem for Seoul, and a source of frustration, is its relative lack of leverage. While Europe may be useful to help nudge the United States into focusing more attention on the Korean peninsula--and even that is questionable--it ultimately lacks the clout, focus or resources to remain a long-term replacement for American engagement. Nor would South Korea even seriously consider such a shift, given the deep and highly valued ties between Seoul and Washington.

Even European officials have no illusions about their limitations. “We will not replace the United States. It’s not possible,” Persson told reporters in Seoul on Friday.

Further adding to the mix are Washington and Seoul’s different takes on the North Korean military threat. Many in South Korea, who have lived in fear of their neighbor’s artillery shelling for decades, are far more confident these days that the North won’t do something rash now that the erratic regime is expanding its contact with the outside world.

“The tension has eased dramatically,” said Millennium Democratic Party lawmaker Jang Sung Min. “There’s a real improvement.”

Many in the Bush administration, however, are far more focused on North Korean proliferation and missile exports. And those concerns were heightened when top European officials said Friday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il continues to view the export of missile technology as a way to earn foreign currency.

Seoul’s state-run Korean Institute for Defense Analysis estimates that the North has exported at least 540 missiles to Iran and other nations since 1985.

The U.S. and South Korea also seem to differ on who should take the next step in improving relations on the peninsula. Many in Seoul, and Pyongyang for that matter, are waiting for a U.S. signal--which they hope to get when a delegation led by Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage and James A. Kelly, the assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs, visits Seoul next week.

Some in Washington, however, seem to want the Koreas to achieve more progress on their own, a point underscored Friday when State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said the U.S. favors a second summit between the leaders of North and South Korea, regardless of the pace of a U.S. policy review.

“I think the American feeling is, the more that the North and South can accomplish between themselves, the better it is,” said Donald Gregg, chairman of the Korea Society and former ambassador to Seoul. “Whereas in Seoul, there’s a feeling that unless the U.S. engages, it’s hard to move forward.”