CEOs Say U.S. to Avoid Recession This Year

U.S. chief executives expect the nation’s economy to avoid a recession this year and improve in 2002, according to a Business Council survey. While 70% of the CEOs surveyed expect “sluggish” growth of less than 1.5% this year, only 11% believe that the U.S. economy will shrink this year. Nineteen percent expect the economy to grow 1.5% to 3.5%.

Almost three-quarters of the chief executives surveyed expect growth to increase in 2002.

“Only a relatively small minority [of firms] indicate they have reduced their work force, cut wages or reduced capital spending,” the group said. “These developments appear to reflect the widely shared optimism about improving future growth.”

The Business Council has 257 member companies, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Sun Microsystems Inc. and Walt Disney Co. The “vast majority” responded to the survey, which was conducted in late April and early May, said Bill White, a spokesman for the Business Council and Sprint Corp.

Gross domestic product, the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s twice the pace in the fourth quarter of 2000, when economic growth slowed to a 5 1/2-year low.